Baby Steps: 55

[W. Deranged]

Daver,

I think that the fact that your line is .5 bb cheaper to a showdown is mitigated by the fact that, with the wait until the turn line, you often save a lot because you get to see a safe turn before committing any more bets.

The Wait-until-the-turn line costs 2.5 bb to get to showdown, but often costs only .5 bb when the turn is ugly.

The Flop-three-bet line costs 1 bb minimum, 2 to a showdown, and sometimes 1.5 when capped on the flop (if we are calling a cap, which we probably have to for set value alone).


So I think that those considerations more or less cancel out.

[The DaveR]

WD, Disagree. If the turn is ugly we can usually still check behind with out 5% suckout equity. Calling the flop forces us to give that up a lot.

[W. Deranged]

Daver,

Hmm... That's a good point. If we three-bet without the intention of betting every turn:

-What cards are we checking behind (As and flush cards? Other face cards?)
-How often are we actually making an error checking there? Are we checking behind a non-flush A if it gets heads-up with MP?
-Are we calling a river bet? Are we calling a river bet if it gets heads-up and the turn is a flush card.



I'm intrigued by your line of reasoning, but I want to have a better sense of how you are constructing the turn and river play in order to evaluate it. For the flop three-bet to be correct it seems we need to be realizing a very, very high percentage of our flop equity and in order for that to happen we need to play the turn and the river very, very well.

[bakku]

i like 3-betting the flop as well, these blinds seem like exactly the type who are going to fold overcards to a 3-bet.

[SeaEagle]

The turn raise also protects your hand better since the blinds will only be getting immediate 8-1 odds and will be risking being faced with 2 more BBs before the betting closes. On the flop 3-bet they'll be getting 12-1 immediate odds an only risking 1 more SB to see the turn.

Since the blinds have a minimum of 4 outs between them (and likely 8-12), knocking them out increases our EV by a lot more than the .5 sb we might save looking at a free river.

[James.]

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so MP limps, i raise in the CO with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], button folds, SB(12/8/1ish) 3bets, BB caps(15/11/.4), MP calls, i call.

Flop(16sb): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

it's checked to me...

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okay so i bet, sb calls, bb calls, MP now checkraises so, i called MP's c/r, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn(11.5bblessrake): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb checks, MP bets...

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MP bets, i raise, sb folds, bb folds, MP seems to pause and then calls.

River(15.5bb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP checks.

[DrModern]

I think the likelihood of a fold from the blinds is low. They may be "tight-passive" but their preflop play suggests a willingness to continue in this hand. Also, the pot is very large and the board is not particularly imposing, they're unlikely to figure themselves to be up against more than an overpair here.

All this is an argument against going to 3-town on the flop.

OTOH, I think making this move is going to allow you to play your hand better on the turn. Your hand is very vulnerable (i.e. there are a large number of turn cards you won't want to see), so if you don't get capped, 3-betting the flop allows you to realize some suckout equity and get to showdown more cheaply.

By using a FSDR on the turn you're almost always committing more bets with the second best hand, and sometimes exposing yourself to a 3-bet. What's more, you can't ensure a fold from the blinds.

Or is the plan to call the flop and fold the turn UI? This seems reasonable as you're getting correct immediate odds to peel for the set. You can fold an unfavorable turn.

Overall this hand has left me saying "yuck," but it's very interesting. I think on balance I prefer to just call the flop.

[DrModern]

O.K. I raise the turn card and the check behind any non-5 river.

[JJH3984]

check the river. Doubt you're ahead 50% of the time that you are called. Check and hope for AQ.

[James.]

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James, firstly, i don't know where i got the two limpers in my head from preflop, sorry about that.

This play does make sense against 1 mp limper i guess and i make it all the time with stronger hands, i'm just suprised a hand as week as 55 is ok to do it with. Would you have made this play with 22?

What are your weakest hands for making a play like this against an open limper in middle or late position with tight blinds?

Would you have made this play against 2 limpers 1 standard and the one you were up against?

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i would probably cut off at about 55(maybe 44)in this spot given the opponent.

against most typical players with one late position open limper i'll raise a fairly wide range. to me players like that want to give their money away unless they hit, and playing in this fashion makes sure we encourage that tendency(not this type of opponent specifically mind you, just in general the types to open limp in LP). so any PP, any ace, decent Kings and Queens, JTo, etc. i'm really playing more my opponents vs. my starting cards so it may be as weak as T8o. now this can be very dangerous territory if you go overboard as it can lead to a crappy image and some pretty high variance. that's why your image is important, as well as the proper frequency, and read on your opponent(s) and their ranges. also, the position from which they are limping is important(i.e. an up front limper will often have a better starting hand).

two limpers i might still raise about 1/3 of the time. at that point i like overlimping because it will be tougher to win UI. it really has to do with the flow of the game at the table at the time it happens. it isn't usually premeditated or anything, it just feels right when the situation presents itself.