An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading.

[PotatoStew]

Great post! One question though about the PFR "sliding scale:

[ QUOTE ]
a passive preflop player has a PFR under a quarter of their VPIP. That means that this is a floating scale: while 10% PFR is passive for a player who has a VPIP of 55%, it is aggressive for a player who has a VPIP of 15%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does it matter how PFR relates to VPIP? In either case, the player is raising 10% of his hands. Why is a loose player who raises 10% of his hands considered less aggressive than a tight player who raises 10% of his hands?

I would think they would be considered equally aggressive, or in a sense the loose player is more aggressive because the sheer number of hands he's raising is higher than the tighter player.

[Esmerelda]

Thank you for a very helpful post, and just the subject I am working on at the moment.

I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.

This just makes your point stronger, he is playing flush draw 8 times as often as a made flush and you should definitely bet on this board often.

[Bahuny]

This post is amazing

[Pokey]

PotatoStew said:

[ QUOTE ]

Why does it matter how PFR relates to VPIP? In either case, the player is raising 10% of his hands. Why is a loose player who raises 10% of his hands considered less aggressive than a tight player who raises 10% of his hands?


[/ QUOTE ]

In a sense, you're absolutely right: given that a player has raised preflop, it doesn't matter too much whether he's a 60/10 or a 15/10 (other than a 60/10 is probably an inferior player, and therefore more likely to make bigger postflop mistakes). However, the difference between a passive and an aggressive player is huge when the player is still to act. Another big difference comes when you get REraised -- a 60/10 probably three-bets less often than a 15/10, because a 60/10's natural inclination would be to smooth-call. A 15/10 has an aggressive mindset and behaves accordingly; a 60/10 has a passive mindset. The differences are subtle, but important.

Esmerelda said:

[ QUOTE ]

I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right, and I absolutely screwed that one up. Thanks -- that was a good catch.

[Oranzith]

i got one of the logitech mice with the free spin wheel, and this post is awesome for it.

also, this post is A++++ in general. Perfect timing for me after dropping several buyins yesterday. w00t!

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]

Esmerelda said:

[ QUOTE ]

I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right, and I absolutely screwed that one up. Thanks -- that was a good catch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the thing is I think you backdoored your way to a more useful number somehow, because Villain isn't gonna treat his 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or whatever as a useful flush card, in general. So if you say "broadway flush draw" or "J+ flush draw" I think you'd be close with your original number which meshed well with my intuition. Somebody less lazy than me, feel free to do the exact math.

[dodgybob]

As always Pokey, amazing post. Give up whatever your day job is, write a book.

[Route66]

Thanks Pokey, I've been looking for something like this.

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Give up whatever your day job is, write a book.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I pre-order? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kerplunkNL]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Medrakil]

I felt i have somehow developed a somewhat similar understanding myself, but to have it put into exact words by a good player and writer was still very helpful.

excellent post.