AP cheating Speculation thread

[LazyD]

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useless speculation--
couple of guys really rich from running online gambling sites got drunk and made a stupid bet over how much they could make if they could see hole cards (perhaps verse if they could see the cards coming)... because they live high and mighty and don't really think about ethics, they just went ahead with testing it out...turned out the money was good...real good...greed, opportunity, rationalization...OMG RIGGED

</useless, but fun speculation>

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Well, You were right Mortimer! You win the bet, ONE DOLLAR.

[TheDingy]

Well, this is PURE speculation, but has anyone ever thought that this could be a full targeted attack?

Say your one of the other sites that competes with UB/AP and the company that holds them, what would give you an absolute heads up and more market share? Nothing like a good ole corporate espinoge job/hack job. You think it doesn't happen, I have seen it happen many times.

Some things of this one make 0 sense such as why would you be SO stupid to destroy the table like was done? Why would you never fold a hand? It seems like they may have been trying to blow the lid on this, but needed something blatent obvious to do it. The facts laid out here show that it could have been done.

Lets think about this as well, it isn't that hard to fake being at scott toms address over the internet. There are some recent exploits, that if you could get scott tom to look at a web page you could install any application on his pc that you would want to. Then you could look through notes, take control have fake desktops etc etc. I am not saying this is the case, but in my eyes is the most likey. I have worked in security and penetration testing for years and I bet that if I was given enough time and funding i could pull something like this off at ANY of the sites.

Over and out.

[_Gabe_]

I've read every post pertaining to the AP scandal. I want to qualify this statement by noting that I am NOT a regular high stakes player on AP, however, I have occasionally played as high as 50/100 limit, and 15/30PLO and also played in their 1K buyin tourney several times.

AP has stated publicly and repeatedly that the cheating does not include current management, we have all assumed that this is a lie but I would like to speculate that it may be true for the following reasons:

1. No one has publicly provided any evidence that proves that Scott Tom has been involved in the day-to-day management of AP in the past year. (Just because he is spamming the site doesn't mean he is running it).

2. AP has shut down the release of any hand histories relating to the 100k tournaments. I know this because I have been trying to request mine for 3 days now. This likely means that either they know cheating occured and are trying to cover it up OR they do not know how deep this goes and are investigating it at this time. I think the latter is more likely as they will be hard pressed to not eventually provide the full and accurate hand histories.

3. The early stance taken by AP on this matter suggests that this caught them by surprise...there was no preparation or forewarning. If the guilty parties were in control of AP I think damage control would have been much more efficient.

4. The cheating was so blatant and poorly executed that it is much more likely to be perpetrated by an individual than by a corporation. AP could easily steal much, much more money without a possibility of getting caught by employing an intelligent system. The actions taken by POTRIPPER suggest that the person running the account was not overly concerned about being caught, as though he/she had nothing really at stake. AP has millions at stake, far too much to be implicitly involved in this scandal.

5. Many sites have had a history of screwing players over, they have been arrogant and acted in a way that made it clear that they see themselves as "above the law". AP does not have a history of these types of actions...I personally have had to manage disputes with them regarding cash-out procedures and have always had my situation rectified.

6. I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility that someone with knowledge of AP (a programmer familiar with the software?) used names of current or former exec.'s to cover his tracks if he was discovered...the play of POTRIPPER in particular suggests someone who has very little knowledge of poker and also someone who did not have his REAL NAME attached to the accounts.

This is all speculation but I think that many of the items we are assuming as fact may be explained in other ways, it is important to consider all scenarios so that we may hold the highest possible position in investigating this matter. Accept no excuses but make no baseless accusations.

[adanthar]

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1. No one has publicly provided any evidence that proves that Scott Tom has been involved in the day-to-day management of AP in the past year. (Just because he is spamming the site doesn't mean he is running it).

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Without releasing any more confidential information, I will say that this is demonstrably false simply from the Steamroller email, which was sent out on July 27'th.

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3. The early stance taken by AP on this matter suggests that this caught them by surprise...there was no preparation or forewarning. If the guilty parties were in control of AP I think damage control would have been much more efficient.

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This could also indicate that the guilty parties have recently been pushed aside from AP's helm (as in the last 48 hours.) I make no representation as to whether that is true and simply want to point this out as an alternative theory.

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4. The cheating was so blatant and poorly executed that it is much more likely to be perpetrated by an individual than by a corporation. AP could easily steal much, much more money without a possibility of getting caught by employing an intelligent system. The actions taken by POTRIPPER suggest that the person running the account was not overly concerned about being caught, as though he/she had nothing really at stake. AP has millions at stake, far too much to be implicitly involved in this scandal.

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Let's just say nothing we have uncovered about any of the major players suggests much actual intelligence was involved.

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6. I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility that someone with knowledge of AP (a programmer familiar with the software?) used names of current or former exec.'s to cover his tracks if he was discovered...the play of POTRIPPER in particular suggests someone who has very little knowledge of poker and also someone who did not have his REAL NAME attached to the accounts.

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Potripper (AJ Green) has accounts sprinkled across over every major poker site and plays terribly on all of them.

[HatesLosing]

Pure Speculation:

-Insiders at the AP security team have known about this problem for some time
-They haven't done anything about it and even tried to cover it up
-One person at AP who realized this brought it to security's attention but was told to basically "shut up"
-That person was upset and in a moral dilemma, so they leaked the hand history file
-That person was subsequently fired for disobeying orders
-AP still tries to deny any security breach
-Finally AP sees this isn't going away, people are cashing out, they're losing business, and the bad PR is increasing so they decide to admit they had a problem
-In the PR release to come out soon, they're going to find one low level employee to take the fall for them, but in reality there were many people involved who knew about this

[_Gabe_]

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1. No one has publicly provided any evidence that proves that Scott Tom has been involved in the day-to-day management of AP in the past year. (Just because he is spamming the site doesn't mean he is running it).

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Without releasing any more confidential information, I will say that this is demonstrably false simply from the Steamroller email, which was sent out on July 27'th.


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I was unaware that the validity of that email had been confirmed. The whole thing seemed odd to me (someone passing $300 for a "beta-test" is really strange). However, point granted if this is confirmed.

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3. The early stance taken by AP on this matter suggests that this caught them by surprise...there was no preparation or forewarning. If the guilty parties were in control of AP I think damage control would have been much more efficient.

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This could also indicate that the guilty parties have recently been pushed aside from AP's helm (as in the last 48 hours.) I make no representation as to whether that is true and simply want to point this out as an alternative theory.

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This is possible but I wonder then why the hammer didn't come down sooner. AP dismissed the allegations early on and really seem to have been blindsided by all of this. Is it arrogance or ignorance?

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4. The cheating was so blatant and poorly executed that it is much more likely to be perpetrated by an individual than by a corporation. AP could easily steal much, much more money without a possibility of getting caught by employing an intelligent system. The actions taken by POTRIPPER suggest that the person running the account was not overly concerned about being caught, as though he/she had nothing really at stake. AP has millions at stake, far too much to be implicitly involved in this scandal.

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Let's just say nothing we have uncovered about any of the major players suggests much actual intelligence was involved.


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I have nothing concrete but it just seems like there is more to this than meets the eye. It appears POTRIPPER knew he wasn't going to go down for this, even if he was caught...his chat at the final table and his actions demonstrate that.

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6. I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility that someone with knowledge of AP (a programmer familiar with the software?) used names of current or former exec.'s to cover his tracks if he was discovered...the play of POTRIPPER in particular suggests someone who has very little knowledge of poker and also someone who did not have his REAL NAME attached to the accounts.

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Potripper (AJ Green) has accounts sprinkled across over every major poker site and plays terribly on all of them.

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But is it POSSIBLE that someone could have hacked the accounts, faked the ip's, etc. etc.?? Or is the evidence so overwhelming (you obviously know more than the rest of us) that the players named are actually involved?

[UATrewqaz]

I posted this in the other thread but since it's speculation it probably belongs more here...

1. There is/was an organized cheating ring inside Absolute, run by the Absolute bigwigs and their cronies.

2. A large portion of the company probably didn't know about this cheating ring.

3. Being typical greedy idiots, they cheat in very obvious ways and are noticed.

4. Upon being reported, Absolute probably writes off the claims as sore losers, like 99.99% of every "cheating" claims. These people are probably not aware of the organized cheating ring, thus the initial denials.

5. Either through internal whistle blowing or most likely a really lucky break, the hand history file pretty much proves the cheating.

6. Absolute is confused and begins to research. They eventually forced to find out there was this cancerous cheating cell internal to them.

7. Absolute will go into full damage control, both simultaneously trying to appease the players/media, but also not implicating the big wigs who were actually cheating. They will not come fully clean.

[adanthar]

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Or is the evidence so overwhelming (you obviously know more than the rest of us) that the players named are actually involved?

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Let me say this: I will not be surprised if your explanation is the one that is used in their statement. I will also admit that nobody can be 100% certain that it's not true - we'd have to have been there. The one thing I know without a shadow of a doubt is that Scott Tom was still involved with the company as of, like, very recently, and that all his friends are there with him.

Having said that, I am also being told that their involvement in day to day operations is about to come to a screeching halt, if it hasn't already. That may be enough depending on the statement. We'll see.