Downswings.

[WiltOnTilt]

Good post leatherass.

[leatherass]

ty

[Redgrape]

I think another problem is that long term winrates are exaggerated to the nth degree. People think just because they ran 8ptBB/100 over 50k hands that is there long term winrate. They post it and people think "wow i guess 8ptBB/100 is a good winrate, and anything less isn't optimal." The truth is there are very few players who have better than a 3ptBB/100 long term winrate at their level (It may have been different pre-UIGEA), and the ones that do move up in a week or so. The only way people are able to attain these incredible winrates is because they are too good for their level, they're owning everyone.
But it's not just the issue of exaggerated winrates. Millions of people play poker, and it's extremely probable that at least 1 of them are going to go on horrific downswings, maybe even 70 BI's. In fact, if that doesn't happen it was an improbable event. Chances are those who reach those huge downswings will find a forum to post about it on.
It's a sucky reality, but IMO it is the reality.

[75s]

[ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

If you guys haven't seen this thread, look at it. It's very good.
I ran the program mentioned, with the appropriate modifications to Standard Deviation and BB/100.
Using mined data and MS Access, am very confident in the results (1.2 million hands).

HU: SD = 127BB/100
6-Max: SD = 54.45BB/100

If you plug in your win rate, you'll see some realistic variance charts.
If the average person holds 100 buyins for the lowest level THEY ARE WILLING TO PLAY, ROR = 0 for all win rates > 2PTBB/100

For HU with a 7.6/100 win rate, 80BI downswings occurred, check the FQ for yourself
For 6Max with 3.24/100, 35BI downswings occurred

Also, anyone running at 8/100 at over 100k hands is on a SUPER FING HEATER and should die.