this is probably why goofyballer thinks i am nuts

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
some thoughts:

1) i am betting this river with anything i am calling $65 with. i believe villain is good enough, despite the donkish appearance of his pre/flop/turn play to recognize this.

2) i don't expect to fold out flushes often, if ever. i expect him to call with a flush close to 95% or so (just a guess). that said, this isn't the kind of play i just whip out every 100 hands so he shouldn't feel great calling off another 125BBs here.

3) the crux of this hand is the ratio of how often he has 56/78/89/77+/{hands i beat anyway} to how often he has a flush.

thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

relying on villains to fold two pair is just dumb

[Nick Royale]

I think it's pretty terrible. I can't see how he would ever 99 or 88. 77/87/65 isn't very likely either since he's likely to fold them on the turn. I guess he could JJ/TT some of the time, but wouldn't count on a multitabling 23/13 to take this often.

This line makes most sense for flush/JT. I don't think there's any chance he'll fold 66%.

[scallop]

This line could be described as 'sexy' and my general rule of thumb is that if it can be described as sexy it is probablly really randomly bad... or a cr river bluff.

The only thing I can think of is that villian is making a weak ass blocker bet with a set/2 pair HOPING that you just call/maybe fold.

I really don't think this board is where you want to bluff because villian has literally check/called you on every street and all the draws got there.

In fact he is prolly raising 2 pair/sets at some point in this hand (except 777) so him having a flush looks more likely.

[carrotsnake]

terp <3. This is why (we're) hot! And have super sick vairance that leads to a heart attack!

[rapidacid]

Whether its good or not depends on a lot of things ... how quickly did you act on the river after he bet ... how often do you shove this spot with the nuts vs. how often do you value bet this spot with the nuts ... whats your bluffing frequency here ... does he know this ratio?

Without a very good flush himself its hard for him to call ... but, if he had a very good flush draw I would assume someone with an AF of 4 & ~200BB effective stacks would look to raise somewhere before the river

I think your river shove worked against this villain, but I think you know it's not going to work all that often against a lot of people

[orange]

terp,
people don't fold 2pairs for 100bbs, as i showed you last night.

[rapidacid]

It's not 100BBs.

[Snipe]

Don’t think he’s going to be able to give you credit for much here. Maybe a set that you turned into a bluff on the river?

I really see him showing up with a flush here a LOT as deep stack play online is significantly less common than 100bb play which often leads to otherwise decent players doing some strange things. I think he has a set / 2 pair here almost never.

I think you’ll be hard pressed to get a fold the requisite 61% of the time, particularly with him getting 1.9:1. I expect to see T9s / A5s / A3s here fairly often.

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not 100BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]
good point. people don't fold top 2 and the like for 200bbs either. as i showed terp last night.

[Barrin6]

I thought it was bad to call 2 barrels with a flush draw oop