grrr...am I getting pushed around by this villain..?

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[ICMoney]

I agree about felting on flop/turn. I was wondering the best way to do it.

In this hand we are OOP.

Say we 3b and get called and still want to get it in on the turn.

When he only min raises, I'm not really sure if he make a strong bet on the turn.

I'd prob lead again.

Assuming 100bb stacks usually, do you just bomb the turn, CRAI or what?

------------------------------------------

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. getting all in on the turn after just calling the flop is horrible. im never folding the turn though.

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have villain's preflop range as even wider since he plays 38% of his hands. A fairly good estimate of villain's preflop range would be any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+ (actually about 37.3% of all hands dealt).

Preflop:
Board: 4c 3c As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.295% 83.25% 02.04% 300839 7373.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 14.705% 12.67% 02.04% 45765 7373.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

Flop:
Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.741% 80.53% 01.21% 12579 189.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 18.259% 17.05% 01.21% 2663 189.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

What is villain minraising with here? An Ace, a draw, a set? Why is he all of the sudden potting the turn? Maybe to get weak draws to fold. I do think we can tighten up villain's post flop range to 56, 33-66, AT+ and now we're a coin flip.

Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.214% 48.67% 01.54% 1135 36.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 49.786% 48.24% 01.54% 1125 36.00 { 66-33, ATs+, 65s, ATo+, 65o }

I'm still getting it all-in on the turn, but I would rather have done it on the flop.

AC

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. djj is correct. Villain raises 11% of his hands which would rougly be 66+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,AJo+ (pairs 66+, AK, AQ, AJ, suited aces, KQs, QJs). He limped, so we need to widen the range. Since OP folded the hand, we can only guess what villain had here. Based on his turn PSB, he either has a big ace, a set or a a pair+OESD (56s/56o). I know my numbers show that villain would raise with 66+, but isn't it possible he just limped here? I see it all the time.

AC

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need at least 44% equity to make a shove over his turn bet profitable.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,532 games 0.005 secs 906,400 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.057% 42.01% 03.05% 1904 138.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 54.943% 51.90% 03.05% 2352 138.00 { 44-33, A2s+, 43s, A2o+, 43o }

And it's even better if he sometimes calls on a pair+draw.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,752 games 0.005 secs 950,400 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.180% 43.96% 03.22% 2089 153.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 52.820% 49.60% 03.22% 2357 153.00 { 55-33, A2s+, 65s, 43s, A2o+, 43o }

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. djj is correct. Villain raises 11% of his hands which would rougly be 66+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,AJo+ (pairs 66+, AK, AQ, AJ, suited aces, KQs, QJs). He limped, so we need to widen the range. Since OP folded the hand, we can only guess what villain had here. Based on his turn PSB, he either has a big ace, a set or a a pair+OESD (56s/56o). I know my numbers show that villain would raise with 66+, but isn't it possible he just limped here? I see it all the time.

AC

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, given your revised range, we're in even better shape on the turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,608 games 0.005 secs 721,600 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.335% 45.09% 04.24% 1627 153.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 50.665% 46.42% 04.24% 1675 153.00 { 55-33, A9s-A2s, 65s, 43s, ATo-A2o, 43o }

I included mediocre suited aces because he probably doesn't always raise them when he's not opening the pot.

[TS Clark]

Re-raise on the flop. If he wants to get it all in right here, I'd be happy as a clam.

Them big combo draws is tasty.

[You're No Daisy]

You are correct. As I mentioned in a previos post that took the modified range into consideration...we are a coin flip. Just out of curiosity, where did you come up with needing 44% equity to make the turn shove profitable? Thanks.

AC

[thoman8r]

Assuming villain calls our turn shove after his turn bet, we are betting 3.92 into a total pot of 8.86.

3.92 / 8.86 = ~ 44%

Of course I haven't taken into account rake so you probably need more like 45-46% equity assuming 5% rake.