Commerce $1500NL vs Cunningham

[jlocdog]

To Ansky and the others who disagree with my way,

I think the pot is sufficiently big enough at this point to 3-bet it here. Remember these stacks only go 3.5,11,and 12 deep. 1700 in the pot already. That is a nice chunk of change. A reraise will most likely get the UTG to call as the pot odds will dictate (a reraise to 2000 puts 3700 in middle with UTG sitting 3000). That is a tough laydown. We are asuming the UTG has a some hand worth raising in that position. Colson DOES have QQ. Not an easy laydown for most. Especially for 900 more and great pot odds. If AC raises more it would still be a tough laydown for QQ. Now we here who eat,breathe, and crap poker can make it, but AC can't assume QQ go away the majority of the time from the avgerage Joe. He has position so his raising standards can be as low as AK here. Plus it may have looked from AC's position that colson was making a move to isolate the UTG. If your the CO, do you dump AK here? How about AQs? what is your range for AC. Mine I guarantee is much bigger tha n yours as I said in a previous post that I wouldn't even rule out suited connectors because his implied odds are so great here. Sounds like your guy's range is AA,KK,JJ,maybe TT. If that is the case, then their is a very small chance you will get much of his money for the resons MLG said (Q77 not a good flop....).

[jlocdog]

I would love to get an official line here on what everyone thinks AC's range is here.

My range: T9s and up with connectors,
88+ in PP.

Looking for implied odds to play after gaging colsons stack. Looking to win a real pot.

[johnnybeef]

I don't really see how you are going to win a big pot here unless he has A7 or something. I would use this hand to setup for future hands, make my normal continuation bet, and show it if it doesn't get called.

[TakenItEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really see how you are going to win a big pot here unless he has A7 or something. I would use this hand to setup for future hands, make my normal continuation bet, and show it if it doesn't get called.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like this line. It's refreshing to hear someone talk about a setup hand for future value in this forum. While I would agree that setups play a larger role in high stakes ring games I think we can agree that the difference in EV of bet vs check is very thin considering that most of the time you don't get paid off here in either case. The few extra Continuation bets it can buy is probably the best EV.

[BigPoppa]

I'm a total donk, but I bet out here (about 1/3 the pot):

1) A check/call here is very suspicious

2) A feeler bet by an aggressive PFR is only to be expected and doesn't scream "monster"

3) A weak-looking CB may induce a raise by AA/KK

[gergery]

What size bet would you make with AK here? What size bet with AA/KK? Probably ~2k, so make that bet now. I bet 100% of the time here, precisely because there is no hand that I would raise an UTG bettor with preflop that I would then check with on that board.

Alan will put you on AA-JJ, AK/AQs and not a lot else. He’ll call with KK-22, AK and perhaps some suited connectors. Unless he has precisely KK, 78, 76 you are not likely to get a ton from him, and if he has those then you are going to get more from him by betting out now. If he has JJ-88 then he might call a bet from you to try and take it on the turn. So size your bet to target what Allen C might call if he has JJ-88. Alternatively, size it so that UTG thinks he has folding equity with KK/JJ to like 1500.

And if I'm Alan C, there is nothing i'd like better than to see you check here and come alive on the turn which screams monster and lets me get away from everything, including potentially 76.

-g

[MLG]

greg, while I like you thought line, your range for alan is way way way to big.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
greg, while I like you thought line, your range for alan is way way way to big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, you're right. Ok, give Allen AA-JJ/AK here. After reading the rest of the thread, I think checking is a much better line than i gave it credit for. i still think betting out is better tho. B/c of Colson's win-small-pot-often-but-stack-AAKK-more often post.

And I liked Daliman's thoughts alot too, but don't see UTG taking a stab at this very often if he can put you and Allen on the same range we just did.

-g

[MrLob]

I've read all the posts and think everyone may be too focused on AC and not on how to get the rest of UTG's money. How about checking here not with the hope of calling a steal/feeler/value bet(depending on his holding)by AC, but in hopes of UTG coming alive on the turn. If UTG comes alive with his 9/9-J/J, hits a set, or hits his AK on the turn we are going to get the rest of his stack (roughly about the same +/- $2,300 all the lines discussed were thinking might be the limit AC would commit) But still better yet, what if the turn is checked as well and now it looks like everyone wants to show down their good but not great hands. Now on the river, we have the possibility to make a donkey looking, steal overbet into the pot and possibly get called by AC with his moderate holdings (JJ,10/10, hit AK, etc) for a much larger amount (+/-$4000)than had we either lead out on the flop or check called the flop.
Certainly not my normal play, but based on all the responses and hand ranges, it may be the most profitable against these two players and their ranges.

[MLG]

lemon,
He started the hand with 12k, he put 1200 in the pot preflop. leaving himself 10800. If colson were to bet 2k, you suggest raising half your remaining stack and then folding to a push. And the purpose of this is to make sure that hands that hands you are already ahead of fold? You think this course of action is better than calling on the flop and then sometimes calling a bet on the turn and sometimes folding depending on the turn card, and colson's action?