Is this a leak?

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

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If you c-bet and get raised, you let yourself know that you're up against at least 2 pair, maybe a set, and maybe the current nuts (KQ); I'd have trouble putting the villain on air with one player left to act, plus the texture of the flop isn't good for a set, 2 pair, pair, etc. This allows you to make an informed decision rather then just playing your cards.

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So you're advocating bet fold as a possible strategy here.

[Frank Catalani]

I think depending on your strategy you could make this fold. It's clear that a decent sized raised following a continuation bet will put you at a decision for your chips. Plus if you are reraised your opponent is committed as well.

With this type of drawing hand this early in the tournament I'd prefer to make this decision. While it's standard to be the aggressor and put the pressure on your opponent (i.e. the check raise all in), you must keep in mind that when the pressure is put back on me and I have a drawing hand I can make a decision based on my tournament strategy. If I want to play big pots and accumulate a big stack early in the tournament, then I can shove and play the hand out. There's also no problem with making a big laydown early either and picking a better spot. Yeah Yeah, how much better could this spot be the draw is huge, but in retrospect it's only a draw.

I would have trouble folding here with AQh, after the flop I have 2 overs, an open ended straight draw, and a nut flush draw. Late in a tournament, depending on my position, I'd probably be more aggressive with this hand since it will dictate my end results, but early in a tournament you have to consider your strategy and make a decision that follows suit. Doubling up here will not make that big of a difference compared to doubling up late.

[BlueEcho]

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Funkert I like your point btw. That's why I pointed out that the tournament is still in Level 1. When it comes down to it you're putting your tournament on the line with a draw.

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Because I've said over and over again that I don't want to get it in on the flop? Hell yeah I would ......


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Frank- those 2 statements seem to contradict themselves.

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If you c-bet and get raised, you let yourself know that you're up against at least 2 pair, maybe a set, and maybe the current nuts (KQ); I'd have trouble putting the villain on air with one player left to act, plus the texture of the flop isn't good for a set, 2 pair, pair, etc. This allows you to make an informed decision rather then just playing your cards.

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Well I'm kinda looking at this a little different. But let's look at it from this viewpoint:

After the pf action there is 315 in the pot.
You want to lead the flop then fine we lead for 200 (making the pot 515). The actual villian in this hand at this point only has 1365 left so even if he raises something like 600 we can assume we are effectively playing for his stack.

Thus if villian raises the effective pot is 1880. We will have to call into that 1165, so we are getting 1.6-1 odds. This means we roughly need 38% equity to continue.

As I pointed out earlier we have 48% equity against the tightest range possible by villian:

Board: Jh Tc 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.000% 47.60% 00.40% 30157 256.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 52.000% 51.60% 00.40% 32691 256.00 { JJ-99, KQs, J9s+, T9s, 87s, KQo, J9o+, T9o, 87o }

We clearly have a +ev edge that should be exploited. We should never be worried about our tourney life if we have a +ev edge.

As a side note when doing some of this math I really hated raising the flop, having villian flat call us, and then miss the turn. Now what do we do? There is 715 in the pot if we check and villian shoves we still have the same odds to call but our equity is only 30% (against your tightest range) since we are only seeing one more card. However, one thing that I think is for sure is that villian doesn't have just this tight range. Meaning one way or another it's ok to get the money in whenever where ever. I do like getting it in on the flop the best.

[BlueEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
I think depending on your strategy you could make this fold. It's clear that a decent sized raised following a continuation bet will put you at a decision for your chips. Plus if you are reraised your opponent is committed as well.

With this type of drawing hand this early in the tournament I'd prefer to make this decision. While it's standard to be the aggressor and put the pressure on your opponent (i.e. the check raise all in), you must keep in mind that when the pressure is put back on me and I have a drawing hand I can make a decision based on my tournament strategy. If I want to play big pots and accumulate a big stack early in the tournament, then I can shove and play the hand out. There's also no problem with making a big laydown early either and picking a better spot. Yeah Yeah, how much better could this spot be the draw is huge, but in retrospect it's only a draw.

I would have trouble folding here with AQh, after the flop I have 2 overs, an open ended straight draw, and a nut flush draw. Late in a tournament, depending on my position, I'd probably be more aggressive with this hand since it will dictate my end results, but early in a tournament you have to consider your strategy and make a decision that follows suit. Doubling up here will not make that big of a difference compared to doubling up late.

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Frank,

While this is well thought out and explained it couldn't be more incorrect. Please see the math behind the reason to never fold here.

[Frank Catalani]

I'm so lost on why every answer to what I say is EV. Yes, I understand that this is a +EV situation for AQh on this board given the villain's range.

All I've done is post every possible situation and analyzed it. In almost every post, I've made it quite clear that I do want to get my chips in the middle, but I've also made it clear that: a) I wouldn't check that flop, I've raised utg and I know I'm not the only person who would continuation bet this flop b)the check raise seems like a leak to me because it advertises a draw (or in some instances an overpair). I'm done on this thread.

[Stumpy]

Wow,

The dude has 23 posts in 2 years and 1/3rd of them are in this thread.

First, you say AQhh is ahead against any range here.
Then, you say check/raising is bad, because it makes our hand look like a draw (weak).
So, we have a hand that's a favorite, and you say a line that makes our hand look weak and gets us action sucks?

Also, you might claim you're advocating getting chips in, but your posts are full of these weak-tight "wait for a better spot" comments, because you can't see the difference between getting it in with a normal draw and a draw that's so huge it is ahead of any rational range for an opponent.

Why is a draw that's 55% to win different than TPTK that's 55% to win?

When you bust out of a $5 tournament making a good play, there's always another one.

Refugee,
Pretty much everyone is saying get as many chips in here as possible, whatever way seems best.
Leading is the most normal play, and since a C-Bet isn't going to get that much respect, I think you'd need a good sense that someone behind you is going to lead if you check.
Without some read, I'd say the range that calls a C-Bet is wider than the range that leads, so leading is better.

If you lead about 250 and get called, shove the turn. There will be 815 in the pot, and you'll have 1205 behind.
You'll get some folds, and if you're under 37% against the calling range it's not by much. The folds more than make up for it.

-Stumpy

[Frank Catalani]

Apparently I'm the only person ever who registered on a forum and never looked much or posted after doing so. See when my first post was, then go from there. Either way you're a winner stumpy.