I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily every flop (although many flops) but on this particular KQJ flop, nobody ever bets out into the PFR with anything they want to call a push with, x3 on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

come on, really?

[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily every flop (although many flops) but on this particular KQJ flop, nobody ever bets out into the PFR with anything they want to call a push with, x3 on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this a good argument for betting out say, AT on this flop (KQJ) against a good player?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this a good argument for betting out say, AT on this flop (KQJ) against a good player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if they know you are a good thinking player, it falls to sh!&#

But, if you are against an aggressive thinking Button, and they dont know much about you, yes, leading with AT is a great play.

I remember a while back, when HOH came out, Colson wrote something along the lines of. "This book is a great thing for me. I can't wait to start raising probe bets". FWIW, if I had a set here, I would probably lead, since I have enough equity vs his jamming range (which includes a lot of bluffs, as well as pair + ten hands.)

[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this a good argument for betting out say, AT on this flop (KQJ) against a good player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if they know you are a good thinking player, it falls to sh!&#

[/ QUOTE ]

At higher levels, poker all seems to revert back to that poison cup scene in "The Princess Bride".

"I know he'd expect me to check here with the nuts. So I should bet. But he knows that I know he'd expect me to check here, so he'll know that my bet is for real. So I should check. But he knows that I know that he knows this, so I should bet. But he knows that I know that he knows that I know . . . "

[trentk268]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing i dont like about a flat call is you still dont know if he's on a monster (unlikely) or a weak hand such that a flop that hits you may just make you second best.

I dont like a push here as theres probably a 20%ish chance that he has a monster. I think i make a bet of like 10k to get a sense of where i am. if he pushes i have no problem folding as the chances of him having a monster at least in my mind increases. Somewhat depending on your reads but i got to believe this guy has some knowledge of the bubble and that you should/would tighten up somewhat - if so, then his push tells me he has a hand. If he calls, I play it fast assuming he checks ( assume theres a 10% of amonster at this point - he may be slowplaying a set or something similar, but i risk it) , if he pushes and i totally miss i prob fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain's play near the bubble would seem to indicate a real possibility of a monster hand. In the event that he does (KK vs K9 would be a real nightmare) you're going to have to get a whole mess of hearts.

Did you try raising villain at any point in this contest? A smooth call doesn't give you much to go on (except the hope of lots of hearts on the flop).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's play near the bubble would seem to indicate a real possibility of a monster hand.

Did you try raising villain at any point in this contest?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[A_PLUS]

Well, I check, he min-bets again....

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily every flop (although many flops) but on this particular KQJ flop, nobody ever bets out into the PFR with anything they want to call a push with, x3 on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

No one good, or no one? I lead pretty much anything here that I've floated with pre-flop which, as I say, I suspect is profitable. The only exceptions I might consider would be flopping the nuts (but not against a random player, I still probably lead) and maybe some draws.

In this case, my line was float and lead, calling the push if I've connected in any way with the flop. I don't 'want' to call a push but I'm going to.

OK, I bubble more than my fair share because I probably give too much credit to how scared my opponents are likely to be playing. And I fully appreciate Adanthar's post about rthe bubble and chip values. I'm going to give this a lot of thought and I think it will improve my game in larger field events. Generally, I'm happy taking a big risk in a 100-500 runner event because success on the bubble in stack confrontations generally assures me of making final table and, generally, it's good to have the image that if you've started putting in chips into a pot, you're going to put them all in, a lot of the time. As Adanthar says, taking this pot down doesn't guarantee us anything substantial, whereas giving it up, guarantees us something.

However, considering the whole line for this particular hand:

We float with K9s. It's a messy kind of hand to float with because unless we connect super hard, any action is worrying, we're going to be making a lot of second best hands.

On the other hand, it seems a shame to let it go.

But, why, really are we calling with this pre-flop. My feeling is that it's more or less useless to play the hand for value. Are we happy that we've flopped top TP here? No. If even TP is not good enough for our purposes, how many toimes are we going to flop something that we are happy with and which will enable us to double up? I don't know, but I doubt the answer is 'often enough'

However, let's assume that the cards are irrelevant. We assign OR a wide range and decide his calling range for s resteal is pretty wide too because he has a better stack. We decide to call and apply pressure. Sometimes this wins the pot by itself. Sometimes it means we get one or two free cards. Sometimes we get pushed. If we get pushed, we have decided how we are responding before we lead. In this case, I'm not bet/folding TP. And I can see Adanthar's point, if I liked my cards more, I'm pushing (things like 10, two pair) or check-raising. Having said that, this hero probably isn't. This hero is playing almost all flops exactly the same way, having floated. This hero bust on quite a few bubbles but this hero expects that if he doesn't, and isn't seen bet-folding 1/3 of his stack, which he is only very rarely, the majority of the table will stay out of his way.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I check, he min-bets again....

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is annoying. Min-raise, min-bet, min-bet. Calling two bets costs the same as a flop lead and you get to see five cards not three, so I call, even though I'm beginning to suspect rivering the small boat may be no good here.

OTOH, I think his line is also consistent with [censored] holding AA on the button.

Call, see the river. Nothing you're beating is calling a push at this stage.

[A_PLUS]

Registrar, I think you are missing the composition of this flop. Usually, his actions will tell us pretty clearly where we stand with TP, but given the number of pair+draw, draw, etc hands that are always in his range here, it makes it so much tougher for us to play correctly.