Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250

[thedustbustr]

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3. it wins, against someone who isn't gonna start leveling with you, because they see the misclick and push with 98s and kjo and lots of hands that are >>> a random hand and slightly greater than the bottom half of your pfr range

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are you serious? there is no way this is a winning play. im guessing the OP saw the aba vs ivey hand and thinks hes clever for copying it. if you pull this move most of the time you will win the blinds, and if you get put AI 95% of the time you will be an underdog or at best flipping. no one is going to push with 98s. He pushed UTG, people in UTG+1, hijack, etc are going to be tight in fear of people behind them having a better hand. people last to act still aren't going to push with 98s, AQs is about the worst you'll see.

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i do believe it is a slimly winning play. i don't believe anymore that he did it on purpose, because he would have chosen AA.

people absolutely will push with worse than AQs. but of course you are right, if they are waiting for QQ+/AK then no, this is not going to be a profitable play. But as various posts including several on the archiveserver show, people don't wait for AQs to call this.

This is long after my original attempt, but yes, I believe it is a misclick, and yes, it is slimly profitable both before and after the misclick.

[Megenoita]

I think everything you've contributed to this thread has been insightful.

I'm not going to commment too much until 1/2 hour from now, but I will say that I agree with you that people will call (push) with worse than AQs for sure.

[sauce123]

1. I'm gonna post a completely different opinion. The only reason I would do this is if villain is insta pushing with any two cards due to monkey tilt. You raise to 43 to essentially alert the rest of the table to the fact ur isolating villain limiting their pushing range to AA/KK.

2. You insta-call cause you have pot odds and are a favorite against a random hand.

3. If #1 is true then it wins.

4. If 1,3 true then yea obviously.

5. Being laid odds when you are a favorite is a good reason to insta-call.

I'm just saying these are the only conditions I can imagine where this play isn't just for metagame purposes and just makes sense. However, at the same time 43 is a weird ass number given the scenario I provided... 20 or 25 would do the same thing. So I'm probably wrong.

[Megenoita]

The contest is offically over. First, I'm going to go through the thread and point out deficiencies in reasoning, and then I'll post the actual results.

[Megenoita]

You had the first legitimate attempt, and you did very well in your reasoning. However, right off the bad, in seeking to answer question 1, you dq'ed yourself as you gave two scenarios. You had to choose why I did what I did, not 2 possibilities.

Regarding point 2, being able to hit the nut flush is irrelevant considering the hot/cold equity is all that matters here, just wanted to mention that.

Other points, I'll discuss as I go on.

[jbird]

bingo.

[ImsaKidd]

You should quote whoever you're evaluating.

[Megenoita]

Point 3, I don't think guys at NL 100 are advanced enough to push with such trash, not if it's the first time they've ever seen me do it.

Point 6, good job.

[Clayton]

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.

- there are children starving in darfur

2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.

- "pot odds"

3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?

- define money. real, or play money?

4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

- would you let O.J. Simpson look after your pet bird?

5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.

- lou gehrig's disease

6. *Bonus Question: Being results-oriented (given that he had AhQh), do I actually win or lose money in the long run by making the call, and how much do I win or lose?

- *head explodes*

[the machine]

*grunch*

1. misclick on the enter key from the number pad causing your 4$ raise to turn into 43$

2. youre getting 2.53:1 on the call and against any bigger ace you are only a 2.51:1 dog making this a logical call given pot odds. or you may be coin flipping or even ahead. only hand that has us in real bad shape is AA where we will not be getting the proper odds to make the call preflop

3. preflop raise loses money in the long run

4. preflop call is basically neutral given range of villain.

5. hero insta calls because of the given pot odds as well as meta game to look like you are in love with a hand like A8s

6. given that he had AQh you gain slighty. the pot is offering you 2.53:1 on the call and AQh to A8s is a 67.73:26.92 favorite giving us 2.51:1. when we factor in the 5.35% of tie percentage. it makes the call slightly +EV