October [censored] thread - Page 5

ahnuld · #41 10-08-2007, 10:54 AM

"Its trading at a huge multiple to even the most optimistic future growth expectations."

thats my reason. When evaluating companies, its not enough to believe and know all the things you posted above. If thats already priced into the market then it wont make you any money. I feel that even though all the above is true, apple is overpriced and wont be able to earn as much as needed in the future to justify a stock price as high as it has. What you need to do is find companies with features like the above that are not valued highly enough. Apple 2 years ago fit the bill, but now its run on too high imo.

CrushinFelt · #42 10-08-2007, 11:59 AM

Maybe I'm having a brain fart.

I have one dependent variable and one independent variable. How in Excel can I run a regression to find a best fit line that isn't linear (the data looks very similar to an x^2 function)?

thx

DcifrThs · #43 10-08-2007, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm having a brain fart.

I have one dependent variable and one independent variable. How in Excel can I run a regression to find a best fit line that isn't linear (the data looks very similar to an x^2 function)?

thx

[/ QUOTE ]

make a table:

Column A Column B

Y1(dependent variable) | X1(independent variable)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Yn Xn

- select both of the data series.
- insert chart (scatter plot)
- right click on any datapoint and go to "add trendline"
- select "power"
- go to options and on the bottom you'll see two options for:

[] include equation
[] include R-squared.

- check both (or just the equation)
- click OK

voila. you got yourself a best fit line.

thats the best i can do at the moment since i can't find an excel funtion that gets that trendline by running a regression. the paramaters would definitely be the same though since it would use the same estimation technique i think.

Barron

EDIT: yea i just went through excel's help thingy and couldnt' find a way to do a non linear regression. i guess you have to do it manually in MATLAB or something....or find somebody who DOES know how to do it in excel lol.

john kane · #44 10-08-2007, 04:03 PM

my brother wants me to put $200 per 1p swing in the northern rock share price with a stop loss at 128p (currently about 178p), so a $10k position.

ive warned him i dont think he should till he learns about everything, and that it is pure gambling. i told him my concerns when he was going to do it when the price was 300p, he would of lost $14k then. now he wants to do it again.

what should i do?

edit: i guess his finances are important. he has about $120k in savings which he will use as a deposit for a house in 1-2 years time, his salary is about $110k and will rise to $130k-$140k over the next 1-2 years.

DesertCat · #45 10-08-2007, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my brother wants me to put $200 per 1p swing in the northern rock share price with a stop loss at 128p (currently about 178p), so a $10k position.

ive warned him i dont think he should till he learns about everything, and that it is pure gambling. i told him my concerns when he was going to do it when the price was 300p, he would of lost $14k then. now he wants to do it again.

what should i do?

edit: i guess his finances are important. he has about $120k in savings which he will use as a deposit for a house in 1-2 years time, his salary is about $110k and will rise to $130k-$140k over the next 1-2 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

He shouldn't gamble with a house downpayment, it should be in a nonvolatile investment like a money market. He should decide how much he needs for the house and he can gamble with the rest. But he also needs to be able to understand how Northern Rock works, so he can explain why it may go bankrupt, and how it can avoid bankruptcy (and what the common shares would be worth in that scenario). If he doesn't understand both scenarios in a detailed fashion he shouldn't be trying to handicap the likelyhood of either scenario.

I know nothing of Northern Rock's specifics but I think there are still many speculative excesses to be wrung from the mortgage business. And from anecedotal evidence it sounds like the UK is in a bigger bubble than even the U.S. was.

NLSoldier · #46 10-09-2007, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
anyone have thoughts on china digital tv holdings? (stv)

[/ QUOTE ]

i bought a little of it after posting this at like 35 and today it openned at almost 50 and hit 55 before coming back down to low 50s.

anyone have thoughts now?

im pretty much a complete noob and have no idea if this is the type of thing i should hold onto or jump ship now.

SlowHabit · #47 10-09-2007, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone have thoughts on china digital tv holdings? (stv)

[/ QUOTE ]

i bought a little of it after posting this at like 35 and today it openned at almost 50 and hit 55 before coming back down to low 50s.

anyone have thoughts now?

im pretty much a complete noob and have no idea if this is the type of thing i should hold onto or jump ship now.

[/ QUOTE ]
What was the reason(s) that made you want to invest into this company? Is the reason(s) still there?

john kane · #48 10-09-2007, 06:07 PM

DesertCat, thanks for your reply. i completely agree with you, just wanted something more technical than what i could say to him. unfortunately in one off northern rock went up 34p (20%) today so he would of made $6800 off a $10k investment, but as ive tried to tell him, he could of put it on roulette and just becuase he won doesnt mean it was the right thing to do.

thanks again.

krishan · #49 10-09-2007, 08:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone have thoughts on china digital tv holdings? (stv)

[/ QUOTE ]

i bought a little of it after posting this at like 35 and today it openned at almost 50 and hit 55 before coming back down to low 50s.

anyone have thoughts now?

im pretty much a complete noob and have no idea if this is the type of thing i should hold onto or jump ship now.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should probably be in index funds. Generally when you buy a stock it's with an idea of what performance you are looking for within what timeframe. Changes in available information can cause you to change of course but having a plan to start with is important.

What were your expectations?

Krishan

SlowHabit · #50 10-10-2007, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
DesertCat, thanks for your reply. i completely agree with you, just wanted something more technical than what i could say to him. unfortunately in one off northern rock went up 34p (20%) today so he would of made $6800 off a $10k investment, but as ive tried to tell him, he could of put it on roulette and just becuase he won doesnt mean it was the right thing to do.

thanks again.

[/ QUOTE ]
Am I reading this correctly?

John Kane not being result-oriented?