Jacks in a really tough spot.

[Nick Royale]

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I'm definitely up for being convinced on the 17/14 nit thing.
I think such a player's 3betting range in this situation is 99+, AJ+.
In which case, I think folding preflop is really bad right?

But I guess if you put his range as much tighter then that,
then obviously folding would be best.

[/ QUOTE ]

For comparison, i play > 25/20 and I'd say my 3betting range here is probably AQ+, JJ+. I probably flat call AQ a lot actually now that I think about it. But I suppose a lot of players would mindlessly 3 bet 99 because "it's a good hand!" I dunno, but I'm more aware of what I'm trying to accomplish when I make certain plays, and I can't think of any good reason to 3bet 99 vs an UTG raise from somebody solid, but that's just me. And I also flat call more in position than most players which makes me more comfortable in not reraising them.

[/ QUOTE ]
The differance between your pfr and a 17/14's pfr isn't your 3-bet range of UTG raises. The differance mostly comes from light isolation raises, steal raises, 3-bets of LP raises etc. I think villain's range here is something like AK/JJ+, sometimes but not as often AQ/TT.

[FGators]

We are NOT way ahead of his UTG 3 betting range...thats tens, AK+ most likely from the guy giving the stats.

I'd usually check/call, check/fold here which makes our hand look pretty transparent but I think thats the best you can do.

Folding preflop isn't the worst advice given on this forum, thats for sure. His range is pretty condensced and we are behind most of it.

[aislephive]

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I'm definitely up for being convinced on the 17/14 nit thing.
I think such a player's 3betting range in this situation is 99+, AJ+.
In which case, I think folding preflop is really bad right?

But I guess if you put his range as much tighter then that,
then obviously folding would be best.

[/ QUOTE ]

For comparison, i play > 25/20 and I'd say my 3betting range here is probably AQ+, JJ+. I probably flat call AQ a lot actually now that I think about it. But I suppose a lot of players would mindlessly 3 bet 99 because "it's a good hand!" I dunno, but I'm more aware of what I'm trying to accomplish when I make certain plays, and I can't think of any good reason to 3bet 99 vs an UTG raise from somebody solid, but that's just me. And I also flat call more in position than most players which makes me more comfortable in not reraising them.

[/ QUOTE ]
The differance between your pfr and a 17/14's pfr isn't your 3-bet range of UTG raises. The differance mostly comes from light isolation raises, steal raises, 3-bets of LP raises etc. I think villain's range here is something like AK/JJ+, sometimes but not as often AQ/TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it doesn't influence the gap between my vpip/pfr much, but in general somebody who is 17/14 is 3 betting more of his overall range than I would against an UTG raise.

[jk3a]

You guys might find this EV calc. interesting. This is the EV of shoving over his cbet. This assumes his range is AK,QQ+ and he always cbets AK and always calls a shove with QQ. Obv. in reality he will get away from QQ sometimes and not always cbet AK.

AK = 16 combos
QQ-AA = 18 combos

47%($125) + 53%(90%(-$158)+10%($233)) = -4

[bilbo-san]

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Does anyone lead this here for $50ish and fold to a raise? It seems like this player is gonna CBet this flop all the time if checked too.



[/ QUOTE ]

Read your first sentence. Then read your second sentence. Then ask yourself how betting makes sense given the information.

To OP:

I think you should fold preflop if you aren't comfortable with this spot.

As played, depending on villains I either call and c/f turn or I shove this flop.

Thing is, big aces need a little less than 3:1 to call here and he had $108 behind and the pot is $280 if you shove, so it's not like you are sad if "pushing just gets worse hands to fold and better hands to call", as people are so fond of saying here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

31,680 games 0.019 secs 1,667,368 games/sec

Board: 3d 6c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.263% 24.67% 01.60% 7814 506.00 { AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 73.737% 72.14% 01.60% 22854 506.00 { JdJs }

[jk3a]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys might find this EV calc. interesting. This is the EV of shoving over his cbet. This assumes his range is AK,QQ+ and he always cbets AK and always calls a shove with QQ. Obv. in reality he will get away from QQ sometimes and not always cbet AK.

AK = 16 combos
QQ-AA = 18 combos

47%($125) + 53%(90%(-$158)+10%($233)) = -4

[/ QUOTE ]

Any comments on this, I think it's very interesting.

[Austiger]

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[ QUOTE ]
You guys might find this EV calc. interesting. This is the EV of shoving over his cbet. This assumes his range is AK,QQ+ and he always cbets AK and always calls a shove with QQ. Obv. in reality he will get away from QQ sometimes and not always cbet AK.

AK = 16 combos
QQ-AA = 18 combos

47%($125) + 53%(90%(-$158)+10%($233)) = -4

[/ QUOTE ]

Any comments on this, I think it's very interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty interesting. I do think he is checking AK a lot more than he is folding QQ to a shove...in fact if it's me, I'm never folding QQ there....but still interesting. I guess it comes down to whether you think he's ever doing this with TT/air.

[tozzy]

it says you should fold pf if this is his assigned range. i bet you wouldnt have needed an EV calculation for this.

[PRE]

What about calling for set value here? He's pricing you out with the 3-bet by only around $4 from a pure set-mining standpoint, but can't a 5% chance that villian will play this hand weakly post-flop make up for this?

[Nick Royale]

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[ QUOTE ]
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You guys might find this EV calc. interesting. This is the EV of shoving over his cbet. This assumes his range is AK,QQ+ and he always cbets AK and always calls a shove with QQ. Obv. in reality he will get away from QQ sometimes and not always cbet AK.

AK = 16 combos
QQ-AA = 18 combos

47%($125) + 53%(90%(-$158)+10%($233)) = -4

[/ QUOTE ]

Any comments on this, I think it's very interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty interesting. I do think he is checking AK a lot more than he is folding QQ to a shove...in fact if it's me, I'm never folding QQ there....but still interesting. I guess it comes down to whether you think he's ever doing this with TT/air.

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I agree with austiger. It's interesting and will make me more inclined to push in similair situations in the future. Not giving two cards to AK is worth a lot and calling the flop to check/fold the turn will also result in us getting bluffed some of the time.

In this situation it shifts my flop decision from a call to a push. I still think I'm folding preflop though.