Sklansky bucks calculator (php script)

[New York Jet]

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grrr i give up if this doesn't work
what does this mean other tnan I am loosing



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You're welcome. Here is the code for future reference.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> [image]http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/9827/22khandsevshitzo8.png[/image] </pre><hr />

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
grrr i give up if this doesn't work
what does this mean other tnan I am loosing



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You are a losing player. Right now you get your money in as the favorite most of the time but not often enough to compensate for large leaks in other areas.

[unfortunate1]

[image]http://img91.imageshack.us/my.php?image=22khandsshitsf5.gif[/image]

[unfortunate1]

thanks, was getting frustrated trying to post that

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
grrr i give up if this doesn't work
what does this mean other tnan I am loosing



[/ QUOTE ]
You are a losing player. Right now you get your money in as the favorite most of the time but not often enough to compensate for large leaks in other areas.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also what happened at around 10k hand mark? You seemed to have been doing reasonably well, then after that looks like you've been going to showdown with weaker holdings. For the first 10k hands your Expected SD Winnings were almost $1k. Then for the next 13k hands you only had $100 in expected SD winnings.

This could either mean that you're getting coolered (getting into situations where you're good enough to go to SD vs opponent's range, but opponents happen to have stronger hands), or it could mean that you started going to SD way too much.

First, you should look at this graph by date (top of PokerEV, set X-Axis to be Date, not Hand), so you'll know when the adjustment happened. Then go to PT and filter to see the hands from 0 to the 10k mark, look at your WtSD%. Then filter to see hands from 10k to 23k, again look at your WtSD%. Is the second number larger than the first?

Also look at that platoe between 6.5k and 9.5k, why did that happen? review the hand histories for hands that went to showdown and see if you're making mistakes.

EDIT: another option that's pretty likely is that you actually ran really well for the first 10k hands, if the two WtSD% are reasonably close, I'd ask in the appropriate strategy forum if that number is good or not. It's possible that you've been going to SD way too much, but you were getting into good situations for the first 10k hands, then the good streak ended and you started losing.

[Civi]

Hi, I've put up two images of my performance over the last 10400 hands. Could someone give me a read on it. This is 5NL. TIA

[DWarrior]

As Phil said, your Equity Adjusted is probably underestimated because the rake never maxes out by the river on 5nl.

Otherwise looks pretty good, it's a pretty small sample though.

[stinkypete]

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I guess my post didn't really answer the question.

And no, pete is actually saying the opposite. Right now, the $100 IS considered -$100 in SB, because it just takes off $100 from your winrate. What he's saying that in reality you could easily have had an expectation that exceeded the $100 loss, but at the moment the program does not show that in any way. Pete is saying that this situation should add sklansky bucks.

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i'm not necessarily saying that this "should" be added but if you're looking to turn this into a useful short to mid-run luck analysis tool using sklansky bucks as they're being used for showdown hands currently, then hands that are folded after putting money in should be considered. missed sets are relatively easy to consider. suited connectors and such are more difficult.

the problem is, the more "features" like this you add, the less accurate it becomes in the long run because it's not possible to model them 100% accurately. since everyone plays differently, the sklansky bucks calculations for folded hands would have to be adaptive (depending on how likely you are to get paid off with your sets and draws after they hit, how cheap you can draw to straight draws and flush draws when your suited connectors flop something, etc.) that's an extremely difficult task. anyone who could do that successfully should not be releasing it, because it would make him really rich.

so the usefulness of a tool that uses sklansky bucks in this way to estimate winrate is limited to the very short run - probably less than 5000 hands.

with larger hand samples, the only good way to reduce the variance in your winrate estimations is to consider sklansky bucks only after all the money goes in, not on the individual streets it goes in on. obviously this is useless for limit hold'em, and with no limit hold'em you need a large enough sample that there's a significant amount of all in hands.

one useful application of the after-all-the-money-goes-in method is that after you have a large sample of hands, it can be used to "calibrate" phil's sklansky bucks method to more accurately determine luck in the short to mid-run.

[RedBarracuda]

Hi,
could someone please clarify this graph for me? Just to start understanding this..
I have been playing with filters and at this point I kind of know and SEE what each line means,
but I don't understand what the conclusion is.. please.. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

click on the graph to see it enlarged..

[Phil153]

It means a lot of people fold to your c-bets, and you make a healthy profit as a result. This is seen by the difference between blue and red, which represents the net money you make from non showdown hands. The times you do get called, you usually have the worst of it. Use the various street by street bar graphs to find out what happens with your c-bets that don't take down a pot. You may be able to devise a better strategy for the times you don't have a good hand and get called. The hand and other filters (high card, overpair, # of players, etc) can help with this analysis too.