A-Rod opts out of contract

[Vyse]

it's not just about staying in nyy -- i really don't think a-rod particularly cares about playing in nyy if he gets his money, but if the money is the same at two places he'd take the non-nyy one. a-rod had an MVP year in a year where MLB revenues are higher than ever and a lot of teams need a 3B and he only has 3 years left on his contract, when he'd be much older and wouldn't get anything close to a 7-8 year deal. the only thing that didn't point to opting out was that MAYBE the yanks wouldn't pursue... but that's just one data point compared to a lot of others favoring a-rod. it would be downright stupid not to opt out, esp considering the yanks will end up having no choice re-entering the bidding for a-rod if they want to be any good.

i'd place my trust in boras too. he always gets the money. cash dollar bills homey.

[Matt Williams]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not just about staying in nyy -- i really don't think a-rod particularly cares about playing in nyy if he gets his money, but if the money is the same at two places he'd take the non-nyy one. a-rod had an MVP year in a year where MLB revenues are higher than ever and a lot of teams need a 3B and he only has 3 years left on his contract, when he'd be much older and wouldn't get anything close to a 7-8 year deal. the only thing that didn't point to opting out was that MAYBE the yanks wouldn't pursue... but that's just one data point compared to a lot of others favoring a-rod. it would be downright stupid not to opt out, esp considering the yanks will end up having no choice re-entering the bidding for a-rod if they want to be any good.

i'd place my trust in boras too. he always gets the money. cash dollar bills homey.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you are making a mistake. Boras is counting on this as well. You are forgetting it's the Yankees. They have resourses other teams don't. Don't be surprised if it's Cabrera. The Yankees did fine w/o A-Rod for 100+ years. They won a WS with Charlie Hayes and Scott Brosius. They will be fine.

[Vyse]

How? It's easy to talk fluff, but how? With A-Rod, the Yanks were definitively better than the Tigers. Now? Probably not. If they get Cabrera, they have to give up one of their expected young stud starters... and they have a problem right there. And it's compounded since Cabrera isn't as good as A-Rod anyway. How are they going to replace A-Rod's ~13 wins?

A-Rod has the Phillies, Dodgers, Angels... maybe even the Padres. He'll get more than enough money. I highly doubt he's worried. The Yanks are the desperate ones.

[Matt Williams]

[ QUOTE ]
And it's compounded since Cabrera isn't as good as A-Rod anyway. How are they going to replace A-Rod's ~13 wins?

A-Rod has the Phillies, Dodgers, Angels... maybe even the Padres. He'll get more than enough money. I highly doubt he's worried. The Yanks are the desperate ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

O RLLY?

CAREER AVERAGES
BA OBP SLG OPS
Rodriguez .306 .389 .578 .967
Cabrera .313 .388 .542 .930


THROUGH AGE 24
BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
Rodriguez .308 .363 .551 .916 148 463
Cabrera .313 .388 .542 .930 138 523

Hmmm.. Considering one is younger by about 7-8 years, I'd take the younger cheaper one.

[Vyse]

07 EqA:

A-Rod: .340
M-Cab: .321

yarly.

Cabrera's the better long-term signing, but Cabrera as a FA... We should be talking 250 million minimum as well. He should -- if market economics are proper -- make more than A-Rod as a FA, really, since he's younger.

Toss in the extra hole you're creating by ditching one of your young cheap good starters (average FA price for a league average starter: $10-11 mil, 4-5 years), and it's not that close. Re-signing A-Rod is more +EV for the Yanks than trading and then giving Cabrera a gigantic contract.

[Matt Williams]

[ QUOTE ]
07 EqA:

A-Rod: .340
M-Cab: .321

yarly.

Cabrera's the better long-term signing, but Cabrera as a FA... We should be talking 250 million minimum as well. He should -- if market economics are proper -- make more than A-Rod as a FA, really, since he's younger.

Toss in the extra hole you're creating by ditching one of your young cheap good starters (average FA price for a league average starter: $10-11 mil, 4-5 years), and it's not that close. Re-signing A-Rod is more +EV for the Yanks than trading and then giving Cabrera a gigantic contract.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice; you used a career year by A-Rod to make it look good. What are both players career Eqa's at age 24? I bet it's pretty close.

[Vyse]

if you're expecting cabrera to keep getting better and better, just come out and say it so i can refute it.

note: this wasn't a-rod's best year. or even second best year.

[Mondogarage]

I suspect every owner in MLB is hoping the Yankees sit out, even if they don't plan on pursuing ARod themselves.

Think about it -- he's wanting $30m a year for 7-8 years, or something like that. It is unlikely, but very possible, that the number of teams actually pursuing him result in nobody offering him *that* much, and he'll have to settle for something more akin to what he's making now, or even a bit less.

Remember, in the time since he signed that deal, to this day no other deal has matched or exceeded it -- it was that far above the rest of market. If he actually ends up having to take a deal that's no better than his current deal, it will allow owners to price other contracts below it, because he does have the best numbers of anyone out there.

The union was pissed at ARod for being willing to rework the deal with Boston, and they should be pissed at him now for pushing the Yankees away.

[Vyse]

it's too bad that doesn't work as long as people are paying $19 million a year for barry zito.

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
I suspect every owner in MLB is hoping the Yankees sit out, even if they don't plan on pursuing ARod themselves.

Think about it -- he's wanting $30m a year for 7-8 years, or something like that. It is unlikely, but very possible, that the number of teams actually pursuing him result in nobody offering him *that* much, and he'll have to settle for something more akin to what he's making now, or even a bit less.

Remember, in the time since he signed that deal, to this day no other deal has matched or exceeded it -- it was that far above the rest of market. If he actually ends up having to take a deal that's no better than his current deal, it will allow owners to price other contracts below it, because he does have the best numbers of anyone out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he falls well below the $30 million level (which I doubt will happen), the Yankees will step back in. I can almost guarantee you that.

Although, the problem in baseball is you don't really know what other teams are offering. You rely on what the agent tells you. That is what Boras takes advantage of.

AND if you talk to the other teams and try to share information the evil "C" word returns -- collusion.

[ QUOTE ]
The union was pissed at ARod for being willing to rework the deal with Boston, and they should be pissed at him now for pushing the Yankees away.

[/ QUOTE ]

The union had the right to approve or reject any restructuring of a contract -- and A-Rod's accepting materially lower compensation could have effected the treatment of other players making far less. The Union does not have the right to say anything about how A-Rod acts within the terms of the contract.