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#411
11-11-2007, 02:02 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
I know it's a ways back in the thread, but with this Florida/Illinois talk, what bowl game are you speaking of exactly? If Florida goes 9-3, I think they're about 70% to get an at-large berth to either the Fiesta Bowl or the Sugar Bowl. Are you thinking that Illinois could actually take the 4th BCS at-large at 9-3 and play Florida in the Sugar Bowl if OSU beats Michigan and no WAC team qualifies? Or are you suggesting that they'd meet in some second-tier bowl if LSU loses in the the SECCG and takes the SEC's at-large spot.
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#413
11-11-2007, 02:10 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
[ QUOTE ]
I know it's a ways back in the thread, but with this Florida/Illinois talk, what bowl game are you speaking of exactly? If Florida goes 9-3, I think they're about 70% to get an at-large berth to either the Fiesta Bowl or the Sugar Bowl. Are you thinking that Illinois could actually take the 4th BCS at-large at 9-3 and play Florida in the Sugar Bowl if OSU beats Michigan and no WAC team qualifies? Or are you suggesting that they'd meet in some second-tier bowl if LSU loses in the the SECCG and takes the SEC's at-large spot. [/ QUOTE ] I assume they mean Outback/Citrus. Big 10/SEC have those for the their top non-BCS teams. Presumably Illinois and Michigan go to Florida (assuming a Mich loss), so they'd get...I dunno, Tennessee and Florida? Florida could get an at-large and throw that off, but UGA will be 10-2 and in the top 10 (unless UT loses). None of this is a lock; either Florida bowl could take Wisconsin or PSU too, although since Michigan hasn't been to Central Florida in 5 years it might be time for a return.
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#415
11-11-2007, 02:15 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
In the Harris Poll Ohio State has 112 first-place votes and Oregon has 1. LSU is ahead of Oregon by 50 points. In the USA Today poll Oregon has 2 first-place votes and LSU 1, Oklahoma also has 2. Ohio State has 55. Oregon trails LSU by 17 points.
How likely is it that Oregon jumps ahead of LSU in either of these? How about Kansas? In theory today probably should not have changed much how you would rank Oregon versus LSU, but weird things seem to happen when people think about who to put at the top.
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#416
11-11-2007, 02:23 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
This game has me realizing that they just don't tackle in the WAC which leads to these huge scores.
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#417
11-11-2007, 02:26 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
Oregon's chances of jumping an undefeated LSU? About 1 in 1,000. LSU would have to do something ridiculous like go to OT with Ole Miss.
Kansas' chances of jumping Oregon and getting into the top two if the win out? About 99%. They've got two huge games against Top 10 opponents and even without them, the voters would be likely to want to give an undefeated team the benefit of the doubt. The only chance a one-loss Oregon would have of staying ahead of 13-0 Kansas would be if Missouri and Oklahoma both lost before Kansas could play them.
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#418
11-11-2007, 02:27 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
[ QUOTE ]
Oregon's chances of jumping an undefeated LSU? About 1 in 1,000. LSU would have to do something ridiculous like go to OT with Ole Miss. Kansas' chances of jumping Oregon and getting into the top two if the win out? About 99%. They've got two huge games against Top 10 opponents and even without them, the voters would be likely to want to give an undefeated team the benefit of the doubt. The only chance a one-loss Oregon would have of staying ahead of 13-0 Kansas would be if Missouri and Oklahoma both lost before Kansas could play them. [/ QUOTE ] Everyone who claims that college football has a playoff called the regular season should read this reasoning.
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#419
11-11-2007, 02:28 AM
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Re: NCAA Football Week 11
The NCAA formula is {(8.4*yards) + (330*TDs) - (200*INTs) + (100*COMPs)}/ATTs, so the max possible rating would be 1261.6 if you completed 100% of your passes, getting a touchdown every time, and averaging 99 yards per attempt.
The NFL forumla is similar, in that it is based on the same four stats, but the scalars are different, and each stat is capped so that after you hit a certain point (77.5% completions, 12.5 yards per attempt, 8.42 attempts per touchdown, and zero interceptions) doing better in that stat no longer ups the rating, which results in an artificial cap of 158.3. If it weren't for the cap, NFL rating would max out at 831.25. [/stat geek]
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