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#411
08-22-2006, 10:45 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
Three scenarios: 1) Boiler was [censored] around as a villager three minutes before night and just didn't want to get lynched. The mafia doesn't believe he's vigilante, they want to incriminate him, or they had a read on a seer (ScottHoward!?!?). 2) Boiler was a mafia member of any kind and really didn't want to get lynched, so he faked vigilante. 3) Boiler is the vigilante, but the mafia didn't believe him for some reason, they want to incriminate him, or they had reason to believe they could kill a seer the first night (ScottHoward?!?!). [/ QUOTE ] 
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#413
08-22-2006, 10:46 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
After only quickly reading this thread (because I was so involved with AS2), here are my opinions: Books is full of it. Boiler could be full of it. Zurvan is a villager. MDD is making sense. IY's idea is good. I'm not sure what thoughts I have about keeping Books alive. Someone has to explain the money thing to me. I'm broke right now, so the mafia can't get shiit from me. FU, you guinnea bastards. [/ QUOTE ] OH, if books is full of it then IY's idea is bad
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#414
08-22-2006, 10:47 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think we should worry about Books being only one specific role (consigliere). Not yet anyway. [/ QUOTE ] that's not the point. as ANY mafia member (except Godfather) the mafia is gaining lots by having him alive as long as possible.
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#415
08-22-2006, 10:48 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] all, what are the odds here that WDC is the seer? if he is the seer, and he lives, the mafia is losing $100 a day blocking him. if he is a regular mafia member, and he lives, the mafia is gaining $100 a day by having him around. if he is the consigwhatever, and he lives, the mafia is very happy. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] ~30% that he's the real seer IMO. what is the break even point after which we should leave him alive? I think it's upwards of 70%, but could be wrong. I take it you're asking because you want a books wagon? Well, I'm already on it. Come on in, the water's great.
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#416
08-22-2006, 10:48 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] After only quickly reading this thread (because I was so involved with AS2), here are my opinions: Books is full of it. Boiler could be full of it. Zurvan is a villager. MDD is making sense. IY's idea is good. I'm not sure what thoughts I have about keeping Books alive. Someone has to explain the money thing to me. I'm broke right now, so the mafia can't get shiit from me. FU, you guinnea bastards. [/ QUOTE ] OH, if books is full of it then IY's idea is bad [/ QUOTE ] Why? I don't see how Books faking or not affects one night of determining Boiler's role. Let the vigilante kill tonight and have Boiler NOT kill if he is really the vigilante. That doesn't affect us and we can carry on as normal. It's just one night.
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#417
08-22-2006, 10:49 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] all, what are the odds here that WDC is the seer? if he is the seer, and he lives, the mafia is losing $100 a day blocking him. if he is a regular mafia member, and he lives, the mafia is gaining $100 a day by having him around. if he is the consigwhatever, and he lives, the mafia is very happy. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] ~30% that he's the real seer IMO. what is the break even point after which we should leave him alive? I think it's upwards of 70%, but could be wrong. I take it you're asking because you want a books wagon? Well, I'm already on it. Come on in, the water's great. [/ QUOTE ] i'm asking because fortunately, you can't argue with math.
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#418
08-22-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: MAFIA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't think we should worry about Books being only one specific role (consigliere). Not yet anyway. [/ QUOTE ] that's not the point. as ANY mafia member (except Godfather) the mafia is gaining lots by having him alive as long as possible. [/ QUOTE ] Which is the lesser of two evils in your opinion: -- Leaving him alive as mafia, or -- Killing him as seer ? Everything else is neutral because that's how it would be if we didn't know anything about Books to begin with.
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#419
08-22-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: MAFIA
Horn,
So you're saying the mafia could be 3rd leveling us, true but its HIGHLY unlikely. We could either lynch boiler who I think is mafia (pretty damn sure of boilers role) and keep the real vig hidden. OR we could have the vig come out and know for sure that boiler is not the real vig... and lose the vig anyway.
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#420
08-22-2006, 10:51 AM
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Re: MAFIA
Shorty, what do they gain? I am not running around naming suspects and causing confusion. I won't even vote this round if people would prefer. Even if I was the consigliere, I think people are bizarrely overstating the gain to the Mafia of having that person one or two days longer.
One thing I want to point out is that if I am seer and that is revealed, I think it is obvious that Boiler is Mafia. I think it is obvious anyways, but it will be especially obvious then.
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Linear Mode
