Donkey Test

[willyc]

So why on earth do they want us to call on number 3?

All else aside, if this guy is only pushing big pocket pairs (say TT+) and AK/AQ then he's he's a big favorite 42% of the time and we're a slight favorite 56% of the time.

I did a very rough calculation, and I have us making about $0 on average here, or about $70 if we factor in a generous 5% chance that he is bluffing and trying to buy the pot with rags. That's positive, but still way too marginal to call $1300 I think, especially in a cash game.

Once again the question was:

25/50 NL. 9 Handed. You're on the button with:

TT

A tight aggressive player in middle position raises to $200. You choose to call on the button, and relatively tight short stack with $1,500 in the big blind pushes all-in. You've seen him do this only with big pairs and AK or AQ so far.

The middle position player thinks and folds. What should you do?

Fold
Call

[holdem2000]

Open up pokerstove, vs JJ+, AQ+ your equity is 40.109% (slightly higher if TT is in his range). You only need 40% equity to call (don't forget the $50 big blind).

[willyc]

I didn't use pokerstove, but I did consider the blinds, the dead money from MP who folded, the ~2% that he has TT also etc., and it seems that my result is very similar. You are saying you need 40% equity to call and pokerstove gives 40.1% which is about as marginal as you can get.

If your calculations are perfect then sure this is +EV, but it's so marginal that you better have an ginormous bankroll if you're thinking about it. Still a pretty easy fold with only 4BB invested in the pot I think.

[ChrisV]

That's fuzzy thinking. +EV is +EV. The amount you've already invested in the pot is a sunk cost and not relevant.

It's true that the equity from call is pretty slim, but remember that the problem only says that you've previously seen him do it with AQ+, JJ+, not that he definitely won't do it with any other hand. Adding even one junky hand to his range (98s, say) increases your equity to 42.88%, at which point you're throwing away around $93 in equity if you fold.

[CrustyFace]

Would be nice to know what the correct answers are and why, the IQ value isn't useful. I got 103, didn't really take stacks into consideration much with it, just went on position and bet bet/call/fold choices.

[JPajamas]

[ QUOTE ]
Would be nice to know what the correct answers are and why, the IQ value isn't useful. I got 103, didn't really take stacks into consideration much with it, just went on position and bet bet/call/fold choices.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call me crazy, (I've been called worse by better, so...) but I posted the answers about 6 posts ago. As far as theory goes, the forum answers are extremely good, so look for the logic there. True, some answers seem whacked, but I think they are leaning towards staying alive rather than making a gamble..

[dan26]

I don't fully get your math.Why would you call it looks like a fold to me.

"3225*.4256=1379.01 call

3225*.40109=1293.51525 close fold "

Can someone explain these numbers to me please?

Is the reason you call due to the bet amount and not the cards?

Thanks,

Dan