Sklansky bucks calculator (php script)

[DWarrior]

The epitome of a TAG?



Does this mean 1/3 of my total winnings came from luckboxing when going all in?

BTW, I did the filters for C-bets with high cards, the result was -2BB/hand. Does this mean c-bets were +EV because I'm raising 3.75bb pf, so if I just straight up fold it should be pretty close to -3bb/hand?

[ImsaKidd]

Everyone needs to click "ETW" to get the teal line. It is the best estimate of how much you were supposed to make when all factors are considered.

[Bastian]

Phil, I really want to thank you.

Im still trying to figure out how to use it, and looking to find out what my deal is, but as others said, expect a nice donation.

Although, you are going to be selling the final product, correct?

[DWarrior]

Is the teal line exactly EV, or does it not consider certain factors?

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the teal line exactly EV, or does it not consider certain factors?

[/ QUOTE ]
The teal line is simply total winnings adjusted for the Sklansky bucks calcs.

There are a bunch of "luck" factors that this program doesn't account for, such as running into an unusual amount of bigger hands, not getting good starting hands, and so on. So it's not the final word - merely a way to significantly reduce the variance in your results. But how you run Sklansky-wise is often the largest factor in your luck for NL and PL players.

I will be addressing these problems on the "Luck Metrics" tabs, where you'll be able to see things such as how often a flush completed, how often a board turned bad on the turn, how often you flopped top pair, set, flush draw, etc. As well as things like how much your big hands got paid off and how often you ran into bigger hands. Basically a complete breakdown of almost all luck related factors that a program can quantify. You'll be able to compare these results to the long term to get an idea of how you run in these spots, as well as to help understand how often various situations occur at your game and stakes, to plan your strategies.

All the data is sitting there, it's just a matter of putting it in tables and sorting out which stats I want to use. It shouldn't be too long.

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
Although, you are going to be selling the final product, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
It will depend on how much I get done. The program as it stands now is not something I'd be happy to charge money for. However, when I get some really cool features implemented I'll likely sell a "premium version" after the beta phase.

Basically the idea is that there will be a free "community" version and a premium version with the extra goodies. Exactly what the breakdown will be would depend on what you guys want to see given away for free, and what you'd rather keep as paid (because it helps with play, or whatever). Regardless of what the breakdown is, you'll always have the ability to see how you run and get luck metrics stats.

I also have my own business which keeps me busy now and then, so everything is up in the air right now. My main concern now is getting the basics finished and I'll see what happens from there.

[runout_mick]

So, essentially this means I'm a giant luckbox?




Also, my girlfriend:

[Phil153]

It looks like you ran hot for the first 11500 hands then pretty much on track for the last 26,000. You had a heater 6000 hands ago, then ran really bad for the last 3000 hands.

I might have to do a "run" line to make the trend clearer, as it's easy to think you're running hot the whole time when the blue line is always above the red, when in reality it's just the result of running good earlier.

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
then ran really bad for the last 3000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I believe that is the result of taking a shot over my current level and losing 2 back to back all-ins as a massive favorite. Besides those hands, I think I ran about par since hand 5000 or so.



Edit:

Sorry to bug you Phil, but one more question. From my red and green lines being so close together, I'm assuming my decisions fairly closely approximate the actual equity in my hands. Is this a correct interpretation?

[Phil153]

I missed your girlfriend's graph, it didn't load earlier.

Your girlfriend started running horribly around hand 9000 as you can see by the red and blue diverging (red keep going up, blue stays about even). As she loses a net amount of money when not seeing showdowns, the combination of this + running horribly has sent her winrate into the negative.


Tell her to start running good again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit:

Sorry to bug you Phil, but one more question. From my red and green lines being so close together, I'm assuming my decisions fairly closely approximate the actual equity in my hands. Is this a correct interpretation?

[/ QUOTE ]
You should be comparing blue and green - and that gives you an idea of how you do in non showdown hands, which is generally a combination of both game quality (i.e. people call then fold too much) and how aggressively you play.