#401
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post.
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#402
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post. [/ QUOTE ] I hope plzbenice reads this post after reading your previous advice to him .:P |
#403
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah, 20bb/100 (10PTBB/100) is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough. I've got over 50K hands at 0.50/1 and below and I'm averaging 27.8bb/100. PTBB is usually the standard on this forum though and while you can easily hit 20 PTBB/100 for 10K hands or so if you're running well, I don't think that can be sustainable. [/ QUOTE ] From your stats posted here and seeing you win AA53 vs AAJJds, I know you are running shortterm hot in allins. And that could help explain a big winrate shorterm. I have an academic interest though in knowing how hot (+EV) one could possibly be for allins over the full 50k (or 20, 30k etc) hands. In theory, I think the allin luck should converge to a normal distribution after 100-150 allins (red vs blue lines in Allin luck on PokerEV). And then run pretty close to at EV thereafter. [/ QUOTE ] The thing here is that while the number of PTBB/100 will eventually reduce due to luck, at the same time, the overall number of buy-ins will slowly increase. So the convergence of lines is very gradual when in absolute terms, they don't even really converge at all. Here's a long-term graph for you, and apparently, I am quite a luckbox: So while the PTBB/100 gained are down under 3 and would likely be under 2 if I doubled the number of hands, the absolute number of buy-ins will continue moving further away from expectation the more hands I play. If I put in a million hands, you'd expect it to be off by 100 BI or so. P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#404
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm in the midst of another 26 buy-in downswing in the past two days. I'm such a tilt monkey sigh. Hard to win playing 60/35, 3-betting a huge range and never folding to 3 or 4 bets, and spewing all over the place post. [/ QUOTE ] I hope plzbenice reads this post after reading your previous advice to him .:P [/ QUOTE ] quite!! - PlsBernice - i think you have your post flop agro factor skewed by having the include pre flop agression box checked. the standard way of measuring agro factor here is the unchecked version |
#405
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
Weren't you only saying in Sept how much you would *love* to make 5PTBB? Now you reckon 10PTBB "is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough." Your long term seems a 'lil different than mine.
gl bdd |
#406
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
Weren't you only saying in Sept how much you would *love* to make 5PTBB? Now you reckon 10PTBB "is sustainable long-term for a good player if the games are soft enough." Your long term seems a 'lil different than mine. gl bdd [/ QUOTE ] I'm 99% sure you have me confused with someone else. At one point, I may have said that I wanted to make a minimum of 5 PTBB/100 at 1/2 and higher since I was extremely frustrated that I was averaging 1 or 2 over a small sample, but I can't imagine being excited about the idea of having such a winrate. If you look at that graph I posted, you'll see that I'm averaging 9.84 PTBB/100 since July 1st over 87,000 hands which is both pretty close to 10 PTBB/100 and a pretty large sample the last time I checked. Obviously, I'm running a little above expectation, but I was also playing pretty bad in the 1/2 and 2/4 games for a while. If I just look at 0.5/1 and below, my expectation is over 10 PTBB/100 over a span of 50K hands. Also, if I just look at hands I played 4-handed or less over that same time period, I'm averaging 25 PTBB/100 over 18K hands. Making a little effort to game select, 10 PTBB/100 isn't hard at all. |
#407
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
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#408
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Actually you dirty rotten lucky bastard, but I do actually have an academic interest in it. It's not that I hate money or anything and would rather win money than lose it, but I find this nonsense interesting. So you are up 38% in all-in luck, and I was down ~50% but if I'm reading the following thread correctly the spread of results can be quite high. I did find this thread where someone analyzed and the deviations are much larger than I would have guessed: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12234213 I'm trying to figure out how to get the data out of PokerEV into Excel. |
#409
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] P.S. I don't buy this "academic interest" stuff at all. You just wanted to see how much better I was running than you so you could feel sorry for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Actually you dirty rotten lucky bastard, but I do actually have an academic interest in it. It's not that I hate money or anything and would rather win money than lose it, but I find this nonsense interesting. So you are up 38% in all-in luck, and I was down ~50% but if I'm reading the following thread correctly the spread of results can be quite high. I did find this thread where someone analyzed and the deviations are much larger than I would have guessed: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12234213 I'm trying to figure out how to get the data out of PokerEV into Excel. [/ QUOTE ] Also, fwiw aren't the red/blue lines supposed to diverge in the long run? |
#410
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Re: ******** November Omaha Low Content Thread ********
Do you guys enjoy gambling? Even when I have gotten my money in bad I like seeing cards come off, and like the thrill, unless I am losing a lot lately.
I wonder if this mentality makes me a worse player subconsiously. |
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