Average Speed IV Game Thread!

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Every time I open my mouth I get accused of sounding wolfish. When I don't, I get accused of being a wolf laying low.

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That applies to everyone, this is a game of paranoia. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

Tokyo,

I like a xorbie kill, too. you and traz pretty much get to pick who we lynch today. Dankhank is the only one on the list I don't really have any feel for.

[Hornacek]

Dankhank has proven to be a very tricky and guile player. Let me review his posts. I would be fine waiting off on him for a few days, getting the much more likely suspects, of which I think Xorbie is at the top of my list.

[Iron_Yuppie]

I realize this has no impact on the game right now, but I find BobO's play fascinating:

Say you are in his position as the seer, and you think you are 100% to get lynched with 20 minutes to go (not the situation here, I think).

You have had two peeks of villagers, which is not very useful knowledge (since those two are likely next to be eaten once you reveal this). If you reveal this knowledge, you are also sure to be eaten. So your fate is pretty much sealed; you will die as a seer who has not accomplished much.

The only way for you as a seer to survive today and tonight is to claim being a seer (so you don't get lynched) but to get some of the visions wrong (so the wolves don't think you are the seer).

So you pick some random person (me, in this case) as a wolf. If the random turn out to be a wolf, at least a wolf was lynched, which is not a bad thing. If the random is a villager, the wolves won't eat the seer, since he will obviously be lynched tomorrow (this is BobO, who has a reputation for "non-standard" plays, so he could be doing this as a villager). This gives the seer another peek before dying; he can then come clean with his visions the next day, and when he is lynched we know we can trust them.

And, if it looks like the seer will be lynched anyway, he can come out with his actual visions, as BobO did.

There are a couple of problems with this (as what if wdc and I were both wolves), but I have talked enough about this, so I will stop now.

[Hornacek]

I see your thinking; his initial problem was sounding wolfy, then deciding to pick a verbal fight with Xorbie which he ultimately lost.

[traz]

OK, I have read the thread over a couple times, and I have come up with a few players I find suspiscious.

Namely, I find istrong to be very shady and wolf-like, and would gladly vote for him today. He's shifted around bandwagons, and just his posts in general gives me the feeling that he's trying to not sound wolfy.

Pudley has made some very strange moves, and is next on my list. His late vote to dankhank makes no sense to me, and reeks of a wolf trying to not have his name tagged to a bandwagon. It almost reeks too much however.

Xorbie has thrown out a large number of names, most of which have been wrong (he named tokyo, bobo, and myself). Does this incriminate or exhaunerate? I don't know.

Chuckles and dankhank has made posts that are a bit off, but I don't have much to go with here.

MDorand hasn't posted much, but the limited posts I"ve seen, make me very weary of him.

And lastly, I suggest everyone pay close attention to WDC. Synsid repeatedly said WDC was high on his list, and the Synsid kill makes no sense to me unless it is some kind of seer hunt. He also named KM and SH, but I don't think that incriminates them.

I realise I've thrown out alot of names. As of this point, my list is:

istrong
Pudley/xorbie
mdorand


Keep in mind there's very little to go on

[traz]

For now, vote istrong

[KyrosMother]

[ QUOTE ]
All,

I would like to lynch xorbie, IY, durron, dankhank or kyrosmother today, not necessarily in that order. If possible, I would like traz's views on these 5.

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I feel we need to follow you and/or Traz today also, but I obviously will not follow you to my lynching. I am also not comfortable with lynching Durron - for reasons I won't get into right now. You may be right on him, but I would prefer to hold off.

Xorbie has been very odd, I agree.

Although I suspected DH first round, others became more prominent to me in the second round.

I have no read on IY, one way or the other

Just out of curiousity - I am on your list why? And at a bare minimum, would you go back and try to picture me as a villager...and think about Alex. If you or Traz don't see it, I obviously can't fight it. But there was something very uncomfortable setting off my radar that first night. (Yes, I know my radar still needs work, but at least consider it before you drive a lynching for me.)

Oh yeah, Pudley should also make you eyebrows raise. I don't believe he has ever played with me before?? And yet he is defending me like he has. Surely you have seen that WW trick used before. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

Xorbie has thrown out a large number of names, most of which have been wrong (he named tokyo, bobo, and myself). Does this incriminate or exhaunerate? I don't know.



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The reasons I have Xorbie up on my list are:
He is a good reader, and I thought it was really obvious that bobo was not a wolf in this game. The frustration was just too genuine. Yet he pressed on, and sort of implied some BS argument. (He went on about this being a team game and not a game of indiviual survival, which is true, but killing bobo gets us no real info if he is a villager, so he was not a good lynch if we thought he was a villager).
Xorbie is a dangerous villager. He was not eaten. I know the line of leave him alive and he will get lynched because is wasn't eaten, but that is falling out of favor and does not work so well. It really can kill a wolf pack, and people are getting used to Xorbie's style so they are less inclined to lynch him for his methods.
I'd need to recheck, but I think Xorbie kept pressure on bobo all day. Why? Even if he thought he was a wolf, he likes to attack to gather info, why not put some pressure on others to see the reaction even if he was going to lead a late charge against bobo?

None of this is certain by any means, but these things are what makes me suspicious of Xorbie. We know for sure that he wasn't sticking to his guns because he had seen bobo. We know that bobo had a history of fake seering, so someone could rationalize the vote. But a lot comes down to bobo being a very unlikely wolf whose kill does not get us much info.

Also, I don't like Kyro's Mom's quick rationalization post of the bobo lynching. It could be frustration, but it also throws up a lot of cover for an obvious blow to the village.

[ScottHoward]

hey all.
im here!
posting today is going to be tough now, theres a ton of people walking around for no apparent reason, and I have a 1pm meeting.
ill try to read as much as possible.