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#391
11-02-2007, 09:22 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The possibility exists with every athlete who ever played any sport.....after all, I cannot sufficiently disprove a negative, and it is "possible" in the case of every athlete. [/ QUOTE ] I am home now so I dont have time to answer all of this, but maybe I will get around to it tomorrow. I am done for the night after this. But what I quoted above is true. It is possible that every athlete to ever play has cheated. My issue is that you assign the same chance of cheating to Ripken, Maris, Ruth, , etc that you do Bonds, even though there is evidence, albeit spotty and inconclusive, implicating Bonds. I asked you a long time ago what percentage chance do you give to Bonds cheating? I think it is like 80%. I think the chance of Ripken cheating was like 5%. Sheffield maybe 50%. And on down the line. [/ QUOTE ] Really, Ripken that low? I agree with your point here, though. If I accuse you of rape tomorrow, the likelihood that you are a rapist DOES go up (to an observer), even though its no sort of proof. Might not go up much but it has to go up a little. Even if I'm a known liar. Seriously though, Ripken seems like a posterboy for steroids. Weird that you think its that low. [/ QUOTE ] Meh...you are right about Ripken. Should probably be higher. I guess it depends on what percentage chance you assign to a random player from that era. But 5% is too low. But you hit the nail on the head with the Bonds/rape thing. Put another way...where there is smoke, there is a higher chance for there to be fire. 
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#392
11-02-2007, 09:29 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But I would bet on any random baseball player of the last 15 years or so having used steroids at some point (although I probably wouldn't lay any odds, even money). [/ QUOTE ] FYI, during the 2003 survey testing, the number of players who tested positive was at least over 5%, and has been variously reported as being between 5-7%. In 2004, no players were suspended for positive tests.* In 2005, 12 players, or right at about 1% tested positive. In 2006, 3 players....0.3% In 2007, with Mike Cameron yesterday, it's up to 3 players, again at 0.3%. (I'm using calendar year above, for simplicity, as opposed to the "baseball year", and in 2004, the first test resulted in a clinical track and no release of name.....it's unlcear on the exact percentage of players who may have tested positive and were given teh clinical track.) Put simply, the number of positive tests dropped drastically from at least over 5% of players survey tested in 2003, to 1% or less from 2004 and beyond. One could even assume the numbers prior to 2003 were higher, given that in 2002 and prior, there was no testing or policy of any kind. In short, once it became a rule, a lot of players quit using and abided the rule. [/ QUOTE ] The testing policy is a joke though, can we all agree on that? They only test a few guys (5 a team, I think), players have a good idea of when the testers are coming, they know what they test for, the lack of an HGH test (whether it is performance enhancing or not) is a knock on the system. Until they make every single ball player piss in a cup unannounced we will have zero idea how many players are users. I personally think that is a silly waste of time and money. These guys are grown men and they can do whatever the hell they want, but if the league wants clarity the only way to do it is to test everyone.
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#393
11-02-2007, 09:31 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It shouldn't amaze you; you know the answer already. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I suppoe it shouldn't amaze me anymore....like with today, both ESPN and CNNSI having on their front page "breaking news" yet another story related to the years old allegations against Bonds and the asterisk on the ball....yet having to dig around their sites to find a buried link to Mike Cameron testing positive yesterday and being suspended for 25 games beginning next year. [/ QUOTE ] Completely agree this is an injustice. The media has a vendetta against Bonds. But this is because he is generally surly to the media, plus he is the holder of the greatest record in all of sports.
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#394
11-02-2007, 09:34 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
RedBean,
What percentage chance do you assign to a random player from the years 1996 to 2003 of ever using a PED? What percentage chance do you assign Barry Bonds from the years 1996 to 2003 of ever using a PED?
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#395
11-02-2007, 09:39 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
The testing policy is a joke though, can we all agree on that? They only test a few guys (5 a team, I think), players have a good idea of when the testers are coming, [/ QUOTE ] Um....every player is tested at least once, some are randomly selected for more, and players under suspicion can be tested up to 6 times throughout a season, and the tests are all unannounced. [ QUOTE ] Until they make every single ball player piss in a cup unannounced we will have zero idea how many players are users. [/ QUOTE ] That's exactly what they've been doing since 2003. Oops... [ QUOTE ] but if the league wants clarity the only way to do it is to test everyone. [/ QUOTE ] Which is what they do.
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#396
11-02-2007, 09:40 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
The media has a vendetta against Bonds. But this is because he is generally surly to the media, plus he is the holder of the greatest record in all of sports. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. Notice it is not because they care about 'the children', or about steroids. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#397
11-02-2007, 09:44 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
But going along the same lines, and using your same logic, please tell me in your opinion if you think the following players cheated: (yes/no by their names, or assign a percentage of likelihood if you prefer) Tony Gwynn Roger Clemens Hank Aaron Bruce Bochy Willie Mays Dan Marino John Elway Barry Bonds Terrell Davis Michael Chang Jerry Rice Mike Schmidt Brett Favre Roger Maris [/ QUOTE ] Manbearpig, now that you're back, looking forward to your answer on this one...
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#400
11-02-2007, 10:11 AM
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Re: Bonds bitter over departure from Giants
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But going along the same lines, and using your same logic, please tell me in your opinion if you think the following players cheated: (yes/no by their names, or assign a percentage of likelihood if you prefer) Tony Gwynn Roger Clemens Hank Aaron Bruce Bochy Willie Mays Dan Marino John Elway Barry Bonds Terrell Davis Michael Chang Jerry Rice Mike Schmidt Brett Favre Roger Maris [/ QUOTE ] Manbearpig, now that you're back, looking forward to your answer on this one... [/ QUOTE ] All maybes? Some more likely than others..
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