ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[crockpot]

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14 team keeper that I'm in with a bunch of the guys here (MEbenhoe, Thay3r, Jim Kuhn, etc). We keep 8:

I kept A-Rod, Pierre, Sheffield, Rolen, Lugo, and Konerko. I had a few keeper options left, none really on offense. For SP, I had Schilling, Harang, and Chris Young. For RP, I had Todd Jones, F. Cordero, and Lidge.

I kept Cordero and Lidge.

How bad did I screw up?

-McGee

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i probably keep schilling and lidge, but you can make a reasonable case for harang or coco.

[crockpot]

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5x5 Roto league - 12 teams (6th pick)

1. Alfonso Soriano
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Matt Holliday
4. Garrett Atkins
5. Chone Figgins
6. Carlos Delgado
7. Bill Hall
8. Chad Cordero
9. Brett Myers
10. Mike Mussina
11. Francisco Cordero
12. Howie Kendrick
13. Mike Cameron
14. Ian Kinsler
15. Jhonny Peralta
16. John Patterson
17. Scott Olsen
18. Russell Martin
19. Edwin Encarnación
20. Taylor Tankersley
21. Austin Kearns

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B+. still not a big fan of figgins (batting 9th is going to really going to cost him) or delgado (age/injuries) but the rest of the team is very solid. first 4 picks are particularly good values.

[crockpot]

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League: Standard 5x5 roto keeper league. 11 teams, $260 payroll.

Proposed trade to me.

I get:

Chien-ming Wang SP NYY $10

He gets

Jhonny Peralta SS CLE $10

Through same basic research, Wang seems to have more value for his contract, but that doesn't take into account that he'll be out for a month or more. The draft is next week and the only pitchers I'll have on the roster are Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Sowers. If I trade Peralta, I'll have to pick up someone in the draft as well.

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honestly i wouldn't keep either for $10 (if it's mixed; AL only is another story), but if you put a gun to my head i take wang.

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It is AL only. I knew I forgot something in my league description. If it's close I'll probably just pass on the trade.

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i take peralta then. an everyday shortstop is a better asset than 80 Ks and a 4+ ERA. wang won't win 19 again.

[crockpot]

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crockpot, do you have AIM? I'd love to discuss some pics and such

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if you have any alba or keeley, we're in business.

[crockpot]

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when adding OPS to a league, is it safe to say that '5-tool' guys like a-rod, utley, soriano, etc become even more valuable? i.e. take them over a pure slugger if it's close since having pure speed guys in the lineup is more of a drain on OPS?

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tricky question. though these players do gain less value from adding OPS than a pujols or manny does, you are correct that their flexibility is worth more because steals-only guys are an OPS sinkhole. but you're only getting 15 steals out of a-rod or utley, which isn't that huge.

one important point is that often a guy with a .900 OPS at a thin position will gain more from the addition of OPS than a 1.000 OPS first baseman. the top three beneficiaries of this setup are probably mauer, pujols, and utley, in some order.

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basically i am thinking my major adjustments when adding OPS and holds are

-pure speed guys like figgins, roberts drop a lot
-5-tool guys and 20/20 types go up
-closers go down, setup guys go up but beware overpaying as holds will probably not be too tough to come by in the form of late bloomers, callups, etc due to the nature of the bullpen
-am planning to emphasize offense early even more than usual
-not counting IP means high K/9, low WHIP relievers go up even more, hence starting pitching also goes down somewhat
-power and OPS at the offensively weak positions becomes more valuable for similar reasons that five-tool guys go up in value - so 2B like Kent and Ray Durham, among the highest projected OPS in the league, go up

anything i'm missing? draft in 1.5 hours... thanks!

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oops, i wrote that last part before reading this.

anyway, the most important addition to your points is that starting pitchers can only help you in 33% of the categories instead of 40%, so they lose value from that in addition to the IP issue. i wouldn't say 20/20 guys really gain value unless they produce a good OPS; they are already tremendously valuable in 5x5.

[crockpot]

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crockpot, hope you don't mind "rate my team" posts like this one. This for a 2+2 league that you surely know about: 14-team 5x5 roto, 8 keepers plus two homegrown talent exceptions blah blah blah. Just wondering what you think of my lineup (obviously tough to talk about its chances of winning w/o knowing the other participants' teams; I just like getting impressions from knowledgeable folks).

C - R. Hernandez
1B - Konerko
2B - Kinsler
3B - A. Rodriguez
SS - Hall
MI - Lugo
CI - Rolen
OF - Sheffield
OF - Pierre
OF - Hawpe
OF - Willingham
U - Rowand (for now, may switch out depending on how some of my other guys perform)

Bench hitters: Kearns, Lofton, K. Matsui, Helms

We start 5 SP and 5 RP (daily lineup changes), and our IP cap is 1750 (I think).

SP: T. Hudson, Hensley, Bonser, C. James, Blanton, McCarthy, W. Williams, Washburn

RP: Lidge, F. Cordero, Wickman, Otsuka, D. Reyes, Turnbow

And, just for the heck of it, my ten-man minors team:

Jeff Baker, I. Stewart (not to be confused with istewart!), Koshansky, Frandsen, Ryan Sweeney, Carlos Gomez, Balentien, Volstad, Sleeth, Merkin Valdez.

-McGee

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well, your SP suck, which isn't such a bad thing as this setup slightly favors hitters with a high IP cap. offense looks solidly above average for a 14-teamer, though not great. bench rowand for kearns.

with two solid closers and a decent shot of getting saves from otsuka, i'd explore trading wickman.

your farm system looks weak; the only potential impact players are blocked in the majors. drop sleeth and get someone who's still considered a prospect.

crystal ball says 9th place finish.

[THAY3R]

Same league as Aces :


C - Varitek
1B - D. Lee
2B - Weeks
3B - Atkins
SS - J. Reyes
MI - Barfield
CI - Teahen
OF - Baldelli
OF - Drew
OF - Logan
OF - Monroe
U - Hafner

Bench hitters: Shelton and Garko(I plan on probably moving Teahen into the OF once he becomes eligible and putting Garko in assuming he gets regular PT)

We start 5 SP and 5 RP (daily lineup changes), and our IP cap is 1750 (I think).

SP: F. Garcia, R. Oswalt, R. Johnson, R. Harden, Buerhle, C. Lee

RP : Coffey, Farnsworth, Qualls, Orvella, J. Salas, B. Wilson, B. League

Minors :

BATTERS
Jeff Mathis, Miguel Montero, Kurt Suzuki, Justin Huber, Jason Stokes, Dallas McPherson, Alberto Callaspo, Elijah Dukes, Jacoby Ellsbury

PITCHERS
Phillip Humber, Tim Lincecum, Andrew Miller, Jordan Tata


I feel like I have very good Hitting, SP's and minors, obviously relief is a weakspot, but shouldn't be too hard to fill that up.

Thoughts on my team this season? For the future?

[Aces McGee]

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crystal ball says 9th place finish.

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Damn. I liked this team better than last year's, when I finished 7th.

I agree with you about my starting pitching; I usually like to hold off on them, but not as long as I did. Guys kept getting taken right before I was going to grab them, and rather than reach (like I did last year and got burned by Colon and Patterson), I figured I'd wait and take offense instead. Of course, this strategy only works if you get a really good offense in its place, and I'm not sure I did a good job of that. I will say, though, that I was fairly pleased with the starters that I got where I got them. Hudson I took in what is the equivalent of the 15th or 16th round; the rest came after round 19 or so.

I drafted Wickman with designs on trading him once I was reasonably sure that Lidge and Cordero were firmly ensconced in their roles (i.e., they don't blow their first five saves of the season).

As for Rowand vs. Kearns, that's definitely something I've been considering. I drafted Rowand because I liked that he contributed a little speed and a little pop, but he's had a terrible spring.

Thanks for your insights.

-McGee

[NT!]

My draft so far:

6. Utley
18. Man Ram
30. Mauer (!!!!)
43. A Ramirez
54. J Damon
67. Mo Rivera
78. Giambi
91. Felipe Lopez
104. T Saito
115. JD Drew

Not crazy about my pitching picks but I think my offense looks pretty sick so far. Thoughts for the rest of the draft? People are going absurdly early on pitching.

[NT!]

128 Mags
139 Johjima
152 R Johnson
163 D Lowe
176 F Rodney

any input would be great. probably looking at another setup man next round, neshek, duchscherer and meredith are all out there