Analysis of a downswing

[Dan Bitel]

baluga,

Great post, I wish you gl in the future

Paul Thomson,

I disagree, I think riasing less UTG is bad. It means we let other people in for cheap with poition over us and we have to play a TP type hand OOP. As long as you play well post flop, there is no reason to raise LESS UTG.

Matrix,

tl;dr [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[CappyAA]

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Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

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It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

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I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.

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I partly agree with this, but I also think it's good to take shots here and there. Before I depleted my bankroll for my Vegas trip in March, I was sitting on about $1200 and playing NL50. I decided to try mixing in 1 or 2 tables of NL100. Well I played really well and added more tables with the plan of moving back to NL50 if I dipped below $1000. That allowed me to (for the time being) get the bankroll to be fully rolled at NL100.

The funny thing is that I'm in the same boat again, recovering my bankroll after losing it in Vegas [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[tehox]

Very nice post. Bankroll management and not going busto is very important. But I am also one on the shot taking side argument. You should be overrolled for your "main game", but I think you should be willing to take small shots at higher games when they look good.

[labrat]

Awesome post - The part about losing loads of extra money by overvaluing hands shortly after being stacked in an acceptable way is something ive done a lot of over the last weekend.

This weekend was a real hit in the face and your post has definitely fastracked me to identifying my errors.

Tbh I already thought I really needed to work on my discipline but I genuinely believed the commonly stated buyin amount was far more than necessary. Now I'm reconsidering, and I'm thinking I may need more than the average person since I also seem to refuse to leave tables where i'm sure i'm outclassed.

[Lizard King]

I remember reading a post a while back where someone ran BB/100 and the SD on a computer program that spit out the normal distribution of the winrate for 100 players over 100K hands (I would be very grateful if someone had a link). The numbers he input where, I think, 2PTBB/100 and an SD of 45. This was for limit and this is a very good winrate. The program ran all the numbers and reported winrate for those 100 imaginary players over 100K hands. The results were that 4 out of the 100 people had a winrate of below .4BB/100 or almost break even over 100 thousand hands. Those are scary numbers. So, to really know your true winrate you might need more than 50K hands, you might need a million to be absolutly sure. This means that even the best poker players will have 20k, 50k or even 100k breakeven streches. And you never know when it will happen. All you can do is improve your game cause most people, even some excellent players, underestimate the true power of Variance.

[car ramrod]

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partly agree with this, but I also think it's good to take shots here and there. Before I depleted my bankroll for my Vegas trip in March, I was sitting on about $1200 and playing NL50. I decided to try mixing in 1 or 2 tables of NL100. Well I played really well and added more tables with the plan of moving back to NL50 if I dipped below $1000. That allowed me to (for the time being) get the bankroll to be fully rolled at NL100.



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I agree with this. I think there is nothing wrong with taking shots, but you have to be able to move right back down if you lose the money you were taking a shot with. Do not try to win it back.

When I was playing limit, I was playing 1/2 with a $3000 bankroll, but I was being a big nit. When I finally moved up to 2/4 it still took time to get used to the bet sizes and the money being double. After a short time I took a shot at 3/6, I put aside a set amount that I was willing to lose, and if I lost it, I would move back down.

If you set aside an amount to take a shot with, you may get lucky and run hot, which will get your bankroll where it should be for that limit. Or you may lose it, but you can always go back and grind that amount and take another shot. After doing this a time or two, the stakes at the next level don't seem so overwhelming b/c you have played them before. I think the hardes part is getting used to the new stakes.

op, good luck, you seem to have a good head on your shoulders, I'm sure you will be fine.

[Mercman572]

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Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

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It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

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I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.

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20 is the recommended bare minimum without taking a cautious shot. 25 is my personal comfort level. 50-60 is just absurd IMO. You shouldn't still be at 200NL if you're consistently beating the game and have a $12k roll. That's passing up more $/hr for no real reason IMO

[BukNaked36]

Great post, one comment.

Position - someone asked TWP about his game when trying to assess a hand he posted. His answer was "TAG from EP, LAG for LP". This mindset makes a lot of sense to me.

[Zarathustra888]

http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?...alc2=calculate

Not sure what to make of the 'Maximum loss in bb' stat. I'm thinking that my bankroll should be at least 3x this amount. 2x and I'd expect to be moving down every month after a downswing.

[Grunch]

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TAG from EP, LAG for LP

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That's my approach too. And I'm quite tight from the blinds. Either completing from the SB or calling a raise from either blind.