200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

[SABR42]

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so you think the turn check really opens up the bet/3-bet AI range of a 12/6/1.5 on a board where he doesnt expect any PP>7 to fold then?

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Absolutely. Did he play this hand like an overpair? No he played it like a hand that completely missed, who says that this player even understands the concept that the only hand calling him is probably one that beats him. Also he might think that he cbet with a pair under the board, or maybe something like 8s.

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I'm sorry, but you're just wrong.

A nit is not going to 3-bet anything worse than KK for value on the river.

If he thinks you're bluffing he will CALL with less, but never 3-bet with less.

[Bluegrassplayer]

I think you're cool.

[SABR42]

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When does he not have 777?

Which hands does he choose to bet/3bet the river with?

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I agree you see 777 here a lot. On the other hand, when there are effectively 3 combos that have you beat and 18 combos of TT-QQ, even if he only plays TT-QQ like this 1 time in 18 a call is profitable.

Seriously, you're getting better than 3 to 1 on the river and if Villain is paying attention he knows you never have 77 given the turn check, so value-betting JJ-QQ isn't totally out of the question (Zeebo theorem).

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Zeebo theorem only works on idiots and calling stations.

[Mike Kelley]

What kind of image do you have ASPoker8 ? Why did you check the turn in hand 1 and then raise him on the river? Seems like a call was in order if you were going for pot control? I'm just trying to understand.

[Proofrock]

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A nit is not going to 3-bet anything worse than KK for value on the river.

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<shrug> -- people do crazy stuff occasionally. Think about it like this. Lets say when he bets the river is range is roughly 77-QQ. There are 3 combos of 77, and 30 combos of 88-QQ. Even if he always calls or folds with 88-99, there are still 18 combos of TT-QQ. Are you telling me there isn't even a 5% chance he would shove with TT-QQ here? Because that's just about all you need for a call to be break even, and I can't imagine preflop stats providing a read that's 95% confident he could never be shoving worse here.

[SABR42]

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What kind of image do you have ASPoker8 ? Why did you check the turn in hand 1 and then raise him on the river? Seems like a call was in order if you were going for pot control? I'm just trying to understand.

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That line maximizes value vs worse hands.

We check the turn because most of villain's range will fold to a turn bet.

Given the check/check on the turn, we can raise river for value because our line looks bluffy and he will call with worse.

However, once he 3-bet shoves river, his range is pretty much 77766 or quads.

[Mike Kelley]

He will call because our line looks bluffy but he will never shove because our line looks bluffy?

[futuredoc85]

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so you think the turn check really opens up the bet/3-bet AI range of a 12/6/1.5 on a board where he doesnt expect any PP>7 to fold then?

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Absolutely. Did he play this hand like an overpair? No he played it like a hand that completely missed, who says that this player even understands the concept that the only hand calling him is probably one that beats him. Also he might think that he cbet with a pair under the board, or maybe something like 8s.

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wtf are you saying? just because you dont play your hand face-up doesnt mean you cant fold thats absurd, our hand is under-repped after the turn, sure, so we value raise river. when he 3-bets we are toast. always. And why do you keep saying hero's hand looks like it misssed completely? if villain thinks that he will call with worse hands but has 0 reason to raise them.

[Proofrock]

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Zeebo theorem only works on idiots and calling stations.

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I think you misunderstood what I was saying. If Villain had, say, QQ here, after OP checks behind on the turn there's a good chance his hand is good, since OP will probably bet the turn with a set to get money in easier on the river. When OP raises the river, Villain could use Zeebo to justify shoving because QQ fares well against a range of 88+ and it will be hard for OP to fold any of those hands getting 3 to 1.

[futuredoc85]

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He will call because our line looks bluffy but he will never shove because our line looks bluffy?

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12/6/1.5

12/6 does not bet/3-bet bluff the river laying 3:1 ever. obv if he has a decent hand he would just call if he suspected a bluff, rather than shoving and losing more vs better hands and the same amount vs bluffs