WCOOP AKo 3-bet utg and get pushed back, your play?

[gobboboy]

You're mathematically committed against a range of QQ+ and AK. Do you not see this?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
Why I fold???
When I 3-bet, I really trust villain can fold JJ or worse. I believe he's good enough to know I'm not folding to a shove. Therefore, when he comes along, I have to put him on AKs/QQ/KK/AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if this were true you are getting the right odds. folding SUCKS

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]

Oh, and FWIW, I think Indigoae had a much tougher decision in #703. I'd been sweating you for a while and when you made the small raise, I put you on KK+ eactly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was surprised to see AKs instead of QQ/AA. UTG raised, he should know his Ace isn't live. I actually had a close decision between 3-bet and shove, 3-bet exposed my hand.

[ QUOTE ]

He's reshoving TT+, AK here always and possibly wider.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? After all my showdowns, he still put me on TT- or AQ?

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
You're mathematically committed against a range of QQ+ and AK. Do you not see this?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it. Please don't get me wrong. That's why my half brain keeps blaming me. The other half keeps thinking other factors...

You see I came back from 9BB. So, 20BB is a lot for me given the tournament structure. At best, I'm seeing QQ, and risk a flip with all my chips .... I know folding is stupid but I just believe he has what he must have to shove.

(btw, people think I'm nit and capable of folding big hands, so when they bluff, they lose all their chips to me.)

[Bonified]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, people think I'm nit and capable of folding big hands, so when they bluff, they lose all their chips to me

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a bit drunk but do you really think this level of thinking is going on online ? Even in the $2500 ? I don't play that high online I'm the first to admit but I play high enough and I really don't think that people see enough hands against you / are paying enough attention to be thinking this deep on an individual basis. This kind of analysis might be OK live but online ... you're out-thinking yourself IMO.

Edit : and more to the point, if you believe this, doesn't it make a call even more definite ?

[registrar]

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? After all my showdowns, he still put me on TT- or AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He puts you on a big hand. He has a big hand. His UTG 3-betting range, given his stack and your tight image, is TT+, AK, IMO, and I was sweating for about the previous 30 hands as it happens. Take out TT if you wish but he's never raise-folding JJ there.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
you're out-thinking yourself IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I am out-thinking myself. That's the big leak in my game. I really need to balance it.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? After all my showdowns, he still put me on TT- or AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He puts you on a big hand. He has a big hand. His UTG 3-betting range, given his stack and your tight image, is TT+, AK, IMO, and I was sweating for about the previous 30 hands as it happens. Take out TT if you wish but he's never raise-folding JJ there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Today, after viewing all his hands since I moved to this table, I believe he's not folding JJ.

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
in this hand i think your chip outlay is out of proportion to a reasonable expectation

[/ QUOTE ]

Not it's not. It's pre-flop.

[Eagles]

3bet folding is atrocious
edit: I hate to be so harsh but seriously if you asked me what hte worst possible line you could take here I would say 3bet fold.