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#32
09-28-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm...maybe not. What if I was born naturally gifted at some skill? This is obviously +EV, but it is entirely based on luck, right? What if I was just born tall? Its pretty much a slam-dunk that being tall, in the US, in 2007, is significantly +EV. But its just lucky, right? [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. Interesting perspective. I guess since "life" is a game we were put in separate from any decision on our part, you can say that having the skills to succeed at it is luck. But the difference between your example and every single other instance is that in all other instances the decision to partake in some game or activity is something you have control of, and thus something you can rationally expect to be rewarded for. It's only when your involvement is involuntary (zomg political overtones) that you can say "luck" exists in some form where it has positive or negative expectation. Also you can think of being born with the skills to succeed in "this" environment as something that's more likely when your ancestors were successful in theirs. So it's luck to you as an individual; but there is still some method to the madness. It's just that "your life" has to start somewhere. To whatever extent some people have more innate equity to life than others, then they were simply more likely to exist. That's how I look at it. 
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#33
09-28-2007, 03:48 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
If you play Russian roulette [/ QUOTE ] As a winning player of Russian roulette, I believe we make our own luck! But it is bad luck that I was born in a universe where entropy applies. And I would definitely be wealthier if pi were closer to five. Luck is absurd, but it fits how we look at the world. I don't think believing in luck is harmful. Of course, acting on that belief can be dangerous - that's the important thing to recognize. If I'm a weak-tight player and thinking I'm "lucky" leads me to be more (appropriately) aggressive, then it looks like a good thing. But it also means I will never adapt, and those who recognize the level of nuance that goes along with probability will eat me alive.
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#35
09-28-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
Ya, thinking it exists is an inefficient approach towards the right way to behave. Sort of like religion. [/ QUOTE ] Being right for the wrong reasons is worse than being wrong for the right reasons. But only if you aren't inflexible and dense.
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#36
09-28-2007, 04:02 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
Well it is basically just a word isn't it? It probably symbolizes something completely different to a mathematician and statistics expert than your average slot addict. Getting some uniform agreement on what it is also seems like a daunting task, given that many attribute to luck/bad luck the things we don't know why happens.
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#37
09-28-2007, 04:06 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ya, thinking it exists is an inefficient approach towards the right way to behave. Sort of like religion. [/ QUOTE ] Being right for the wrong reasons is worse than being wrong for the right reasons. But only if you aren't inflexible and dense. [/ QUOTE ] Well I was going with madnak's hypothetical of being a weak-tight poker player. Since he's already making a huge mistake, a lesser mistake that resonates more clearly is probably better for him. But sure, such is only the case because he was acting unreasonably in the first place.
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#38
09-28-2007, 04:07 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] being born in the 1st world in peace time rather than starving in a war zone. Fairly pleased with myself for having had the sense to avoid the WW1 trenches as well. chez [/ QUOTE ] Your being born in 1st world is not +EV luck. It's simply variance. There's a distribution of conditions for being born into this world that has some median. For each birth above this median there is a birth below this median. Here's a poker example to demonstrate: Just because the table is a lot tougher does not mean you all of sudden are just "unlucky" since your win rate went down. This is what you are saying with your birth analogy. Just because you found a soft table (being born in 1st world) doesn't mean you have some +EV luck factor. Anybody born here (all things equal) has the same EV.
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#39
09-28-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...maybe not. What if I was born naturally gifted at some skill? This is obviously +EV, but it is entirely based on luck, right? What if I was just born tall? Its pretty much a slam-dunk that being tall, in the US, in 2007, is significantly +EV. But its just lucky, right? [/ QUOTE ] One sample doesn't determine expected value. If you're born gifted, this doesn't mean you have +EV luck, it is merely variance on the gifted continuum. Just like one low probability win which netted you a fat bankroll is variance, so was your being born gifted. There is a mean level of giftedness for all children born. There is variance about this mean, which for some reason you want to describe as a +EV "luck factor" inherent to you.
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#40
09-28-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...maybe not. What if I was born naturally gifted at some skill? This is obviously +EV, but it is entirely based on luck, right? What if I was just born tall? Its pretty much a slam-dunk that being tall, in the US, in 2007, is significantly +EV. But its just lucky, right? [/ QUOTE ] One sample doesn't determine expected value. If you're born gifted, this doesn't mean you have +EV luck, it is merely variance on the gifted continuum. Just like one low probability win which netted you a fat bankroll is variance, so was your being born gifted. There is a mean level of giftedness for all children born. There is variance about this mean, which for some reason you want to describe as a +EV "luck factor" inherent to you. [/ QUOTE ] I'm going to have greater EV in all my endeavors compared to my compadres. Its similar to always being dealt aces. You would consider this to be variance? We are talking on different levels here, I think. Ultimately, I guess you are right, its just variance, but I will have a decided edge for the rest of my life due to nothing I did. It seems a little silly not to call this an EV-boost, but I'm no expert.
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