Fold Equity - what is it? and does it really apply in PLO?

[JanelleBB7]

I HEAR you Ribbo.. you must play on Pokerstars lol.

[dshadow35]

Janelle,

I must admit that Fold Equity before the flop in PLO really does not exist so much because no hand is such a big underdog that you can make someone fold. However Post Flop it can exist.

In spots were you would see more folding such as tournament poker it would apply more.

Janelle, I told you I would reply to your posts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[dshadow35]

Here is a formal definition of Fold Equity I found at Wikipedia.

Fold Equity is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no limit (or possibly pot limit) tournament. It is the equity a player can consider him or herself likely to gain if he or she bets. It equates to:

(gain in equity if opponent(s) fold) X (likelihood that opponents fold)

The first half of the formula is known because it is whatever share of equity the folding opponent has. The second cannot be known but must be estimated based on reads or previous actions.

It becomes an important concept for short stacks for the following reason. Opponents can be considered likely to call all-ins with a certain range of hands. When they will have to use a large percentage of their stack to make the call, this range can be expected to be quite narrow (it will include all the hands the caller expects to win an all-in against the bettor). As the percentage of stack needed to call becomes lower, the range of cards the caller will need becomes wider, and he or she becomes less likely to fold. Consequently, fold equity diminishes. There will be a point at which a caller will need a sufficiently small percentage of their stack to call the all-in that they will do so with any two cards. At that point, the all-in bettor will have no fold equity.

Example

Alice holds A6. She is heads up with Brian, who holds 22. The flop is 973 rainbow (no cards of the same suit).

Alice has pot equity of 31.5%
Brian has pot equity of 68.5%

(In other words, if there was no further betting, and the players simply turned up their hands and were dealt the turn and river, Alice is 31.5% likely to win.)

If Brian is 70% likely to fold, Alice's fold equity is 47.95% (68.5 x .7). Consequently, Alice can consider that her hand equity if she bets will equal 31.5 + 47.95%, almost 80%.

[pete fabrizio]

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There is no such thing as fold equity in pot limit omaha. People just never fold. If you start fooling yourself into thinking you can raise someone off a better hand than yours, then you're just wrong. If people fold to your raise, then it's because they had absolutely nothing and you weren't bluffing, you were value betting.

My point is really this, do NOT ever factor in "fold equity" when deciding whether or not to bet your hand. It is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

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huh? most "fold equity" comes from people folding weaker made hands that would still have equity against an aggressively-played draw, and people folding weaker draws that would still have equity against an aggressively-played made hand. those both happen all the time, and you should obviously take that into account when deciding whether to play your draws or your weaker made hands aggressively.

[JanelleBB7]

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There is no such thing as fold equity in pot limit omaha. People just never fold. If you start fooling yourself into thinking you can raise someone off a better hand than yours, then you're just wrong. If people fold to your raise, then it's because they had absolutely nothing and you weren't bluffing, you were value betting.

My point is really this, do NOT ever factor in "fold equity" when deciding whether or not to bet your hand. It is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

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huh? most "fold equity" comes from people folding weaker made hands that would still have equity against an aggressively-played draw, and people folding weaker draws that would still have equity against an aggressively-played made hand. those both happen all the time, and you should obviously take that into account when deciding whether to play your draws or your weaker made hands aggressively.

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Pete I actually don't Think Ribbo was being completely serious in his comment here... sounded like fustration to me.

[thisnamedoesntfi]

I think he was completely serious.

[blah_blah]

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Blah_blah's[ QUOTE ]
for example, an MTT example is when you have 25BB, and the button raises to 4xBB and you shove from the BB with AA, you have a lot of fold equity on your shove. this doesn't mean that shoving is right here, just that it's part of what you should be considering in your EV calculations.

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I don't understand how this is fold equity actually. Wouldn't you want the call? I thought fold equity you want them to fold?

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Calling or raising to 10BB or so are probably better options here in a vacuum, yes. In fact minraising may be a better option in a vacuum. The idea is that if you have AA, you have 80% equity on each additional dollar your opponent puts in the pot preflop, whereas if you assume your opponent folds 80% of the time to your shove, your fold equity is about 0.80 * 0.20 * 8BB (plus the usual ev calculations for the 20% of the time he calls the shove).

[JanelleBB7]

Ok I think I see your point now.. you are saying that you want to raise preflop because you want to a. eliminate as many other callers as possible ( which at the limits I play doesn't happen!!! lol) b. because 80% of the time his hand isn't going to be good enough to call you with if you pot the flop. And really you don't want to see the other streets because your hand isn't likely to improve to a str8, fh, or flush. Correct? Yes I see then how fold equity works in the case of aces and I think I have naturally done it but now I know why lol. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]