Big Laydown? Standart Laydown? Bad Laydown?

[Janis N.]

OK those who say it's basically an easy call, can you please provide a pokerstove range for both villains?

I know I do this all the time - "wow I got x% of my stack in prefop with an overpair, let me blindly stack off now", but that's not always right.

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.633% 18.63% 00.00% 66123 0.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 42.576% 42.56% 00.02% 151038 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55 }
Hand 2: 38.792% 38.78% 00.02% 137610 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, AhJh, KsQs, Ts9s, 6s5s }

What does everyone think of these ranges, I have them totally wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you have 55, the range is quite a bit different. First, it's impossible for your opponent to have 55 when you have 55. There aren't that many fives in the deck. I'm not sure if that screws up pokerstove or not.

Second, and more importantly, you have to include a bunch of ace-high flush draws when you don't have the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. That changes the equity considerably.

[Janis N.]

Good point, jlkrusty. Is this better then? Not enough NFDs?

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.802% 20.80% 00.00% 87912 0.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 42.186% 42.17% 00.01% 178224 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77 }
Hand 2: 37.012% 37.00% 00.01% 156360 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, AsQs, AhJh, AsTs, As5s, KsQs, Ts9s, 6s5s }

FWIW taking out 55 from their ranges didn't change anything, pokerstove is smart enough.

[Renton]

once again, im not saying its a call, but i think you people are definitely underestimating how dumb of decisions ppl can make in villains' spots

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
Good point, jlkrusty. Is this better then? Not enough NFDs?

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.802% 20.80% 00.00% 87912 0.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 42.186% 42.17% 00.01% 178224 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77 }
Hand 2: 37.012% 37.00% 00.01% 156360 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, AsQs, AhJh, AsTs, As5s, KsQs, Ts9s, 6s5s }

FWIW taking out 55 from their ranges didn't change anything, pokerstove is smart enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Starting stacks:

Hero ($1,000)
SB ($938)
BB ($391.85)
UTG ($817.40)
MP ($576)

Let's assume all three of us get all in:

It costs us another $270 to call the shove, for a resulting main pot of $1,725 (assuming UTG calls and taking out $3 for rake).

It costs us another $241 on the resulting side pot of $482.

We can calculate our EV as follows, where E = the equity in the main pot (3-way), and E2 = the equity in the side pot (HU with UTG):

(E * 1725) + (E2 * 482) - (270 + 241) = EV
(E * 1725) + (E2 * 482) - 511 = EV

Here's a calculation of E in the main pot (I've been a little more liberal in our opponent's hand ranges than Janis N.):

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.803% 19.80% 00.00% 54005 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 40.851% 40.85% 00.00% 111403 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, 8s6s, 6s4s }
Hand 2: 39.346% 39.35% 00.00% 107298 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, AhJh, KsQs, QsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s6s, 6s5s, 6s4s }

And, here's our heads up EV in the side pot with MP:

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.851% 47.85% 00.00% 10422 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 52.149% 52.15% 00.00% 11358 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, AhJh, KsQs, QsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s6s, 6s5s, 6s4s }

We can now calculate our EV as follows:

(.198 * 1725) + (.4785 * 482) - 511 = EV
341 + 231 - 511 = EV
572 -511 = EV

EV = +$61

Using Janis's tighter range, we get still get a positive EV of +$21:

(.1782 * 1725) + (.4677 * 482) - 511 = EV

307 + 225 - 511 = EV

EV = +$21

There are some assumptions in these above calculations. For example, we may not get all in on the side pot. However, those who are saying this is an easy decision are clearly wrong. Overall, it appears that this is close decision in favor of calling.

***If I made errors in my math, please let me know. Thanks.

[Janis N.]

Nice calculation, jlkrusty; much appreciated.

[ArturiusX]

I'd call.

[ata]

If I'm actually playing I'd call since I can't fold, but this is a pretty clear fold. After cold calling two raises pf and then overpushing UTG's call, he has a set here almost always.

[rand]

very nice Jlkrusty

the problem is not your math but your logic...
basically what is flipping the decision from fold to call in your analysis is the side pot where you give UTG a poor range, no compotent player gets in all in there unless they have a draw or are ahead of AA

you could argue that with the exception of QQ that is the range that you have for UTG, and you would be right but that is inconsistent with the begining of the hand: there is no way that UTG calls this 3bet OOP absolutely and relativly with any drawing hands besides the broadways (of which the only reasonable combo is KQs)

a better range for UTG at the point which he gets it all in against us is: {KsQs, JJ, 77, and 55)

this ranges changes our equity alot in teh side pot which then also chagnes our EV shifting this back to a fold IMO

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
very nice Jlkrusty

the problem is not your math but your logic...
basically what is flipping the decision from fold to call in your analysis is the side pot where you give UTG a poor range, no compotent player gets in all in there unless they have a draw or are ahead of AA

you could argue that with the exception of QQ that is the range that you have for UTG, and you would be right but that is inconsistent with the begining of the hand: there is no way that UTG calls this 3bet OOP absolutely and relativly with any drawing hands besides the broadways (of which the only reasonable combo is KQs)

a better range for UTG at the point which he gets it all in against us is: {KsQs, JJ, 77, and 55)

this ranges changes our equity alot in teh side pot which then also chagnes our EV shifting this back to a fold IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, UTG is making an error if he does not go all in with most of the hands I listed in UTG's range. Take for example 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]:

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.817% 43.82% 00.00% 5935 0.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 21.971% 21.97% 00.00% 2976 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 34.212% 34.21% 00.00% 4634 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 77, 55 }

Are you really saying that UTG won't go all in with 44% equity? Are you crazy?

In any event, let's say you are right and that UTG will only go all in with KsQs, JJ, 77, and 55. That's a pretty big assumption (one I don't agree with), but if we do assume that, then we have to calculate what happens when he folds all his other hands. Agreeably, he has a wider range of calling our original bet than he does the all in. In fact, I would say his original calling range is probably even wider than what I listed. As such, maybe KsQs, JJ, 77, and 55 make up 40% of the hands he would go all in with. Therefore, once MP goes all in and we call/raise, UTG will fold the other 60%. So, what's our equity when he folds 60% of the time?

For the times he folds, the pot with MP will be $1464 (after we call the $270). We need just 18.4% equity to make this profitable. Suppose we give MP just two combinations of queens:

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.052% 27.05% 00.00% 2946 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 72.948% 72.95% 00.00% 7944 0.00 { QcQd, QdQh, JJ, 77, 55 }

So, 60% of the time, we have the following equity:

EV = (.27 * $1,464) - $270 = +$125.28

60% * $125.28 = +$75.17.

Now, for the other 40% of the time that UTG calls:

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.785% 13.79% 00.00% 10332 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 48.661% 48.66% 00.00% 36471 0.00 { JJ, 77, 55, KsQs }
Hand 2: 37.554% 37.55% 00.00% 28146 0.00 { QcQd, QdQh, JJ, 77, 55 }

...and in the side pot:

Board: 5h Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.010% 18.01% 00.00% 1783 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 81.990% 81.99% 00.00% 8117 0.00 { JJ, 77, 55, KsQs }

And, we get results as follows (note: in my original calculation, I left out the $9 in blinds, which are added in the final pot now):

EV = (.13785 * 1734) + (.1801 * 482) - (270 + 241)
EV = 239 + 89 - 511
EV = -$183

40% * -$183 = -$73.20.

Now, we have an overall EV of

+$75.17
-$73.20
======
EV = +$1.97

Now, I think the EV is higher than this since I believe UTG will call with hands like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (he's a nit if he doesn't). However, I am not trying to say that this is a clear call. It's not. Mostly, I'm just refuting those that said this is a clear fold--clearly it's not. If it is a fold, it's a very marginal one at best.