JJ: CO/Button confrontation against reg

[loosbastard]

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shove turn.

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Why? What exactly are you beating? His donk bet on the turn is sooo strong.

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This obviously can't be that easy of a spot when several posters have completely disagreed on the correct action.

[gimmetheloot]

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shove turn.

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And get called by what?

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taking the pot down at this point is perfectly fine.

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disagree.

[dragonystic]

elaborate?

[Acevader]

Right that range you've given is super-tight but if we go with it you are 80% likely to lose so its a fold (by 1%!!). However, you do realize that by even factoring in A10s its a profitable call. Just considering that one hand as a possibility turns it into a call. Factor in any other hand that you beat at all and calling has a very positive expection.

Simply from experience I've seen people turn up here far too often with something I never really thought they'd play in the manner they did and hey presto I take the pot. I think the fold is nitty at that price.

Also, people at these levels (even seemingly solid players) turn soooooo many hands into pure bluffs without even realizing it. Not saying that is the case here - I think this player would know that he's bluffing betting 99.

Finally, consider your hand representation to villain. You didn't shove the turn over his lead out. Why? It's nearly always because you have a marginal holding or a draw - if you have QQ-AA, Ah10h, set, two pair, etc you shove right? What if villain did bet a draw on the turn and bricked the river. Would you, as villain, not consider a punt to tease out if you (hero) was on a draw. Think about it. His draw bricked but he thinks you were potentially on a draw at the turn as well or had a marginal hand you were unsure about and just might fold. He risks $43 to win $118 + his $43 returned to him if successful. He only needs to be correct in the assumption that you were drawing or might consider folding 27% of the time. This might also explain why he didn't bet all in on the river as the $43 would be just as effective at finding out if you missed a draw as a push would be but is less risk.

Again factor in any remote possibility (even very slight) that villain plays another hand than the range you specify or bricked a draw he was betting on the turn and its a clear call.

[Acevader]

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shove turn.

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And get called by what?

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taking the pot down at this point is perfectly fine.

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disagree.

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NLTAP states that there is often positive expectation in secure big pots with a raise/push even when you know you'll only be called by a superior hand. I'm not necessarily agreeing that a turn push in this instance it right but I agree with the principle that, even in cash games, there comes a point in a pot when taking it down by any means is acceptable.