Ichiro and a hypothetical question for stats/Sabermetrics folks

[Hoya]

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I'd advise Ichiro to not attempt this, as a surge in HR rate after the age of 35 may serve to convict him in the eyes of many SI subscribers.

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You are getting a little scary.

[ArcticKnight]

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Also, "Speed" is reflected in a players Slugging Percentage, and a players Stolen Base ability is often barely +EV, if not -EV.

In fairness to Ichriro though, his last 2 seasons re: SB's have been ridiculous.

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Mark McGwire in 2001 batted 187 and slugged 492
He had 56 hits, 4 doubles,29 homers and 23 singles
A lot more goes into slugging that just speed

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Mo42Nyy

I think what Thay3r meant by "reflected" is that if you take a slow-footed power hitter and fast power hitter of equal abilities, the fast player will have a higher slugging % due to more singles that got turned into doubles, and more doubles that got turned into triples.

You said alot more goes into slugging than just speed, and you are right. The problem is that Thay3r never said that speed was the only thing that factors in slugging, so you were making a counterpoint to a phantom statement, or a strawman argument.

[DesertCat]

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How can ichiro lose 48 points of BA, but less than that in OBP?

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guys with a higher SLG are more likely to get walked / pitched around because you don't want to give up an XBH, obv. tv

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Sure but its going to take a lot of homers before pitchers start pitching carefully to noted free swinger Ichiro. This is also why Ichiro could never be a home run hitter. The classic high OBP power hitter is very patient about waiting for the right pitch, even if it means striking out a lot because of all the pithes they take. Ichiro swings at far too many pitches he could never hit out, if he ever became patient he'd no longer be Ichiro.

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The whole question is absurd since with ichiro baserunning skills you need him on base as much as possible.

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LOL

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You're right. Why would you want one of the most effective baserunners in the game on base when you could have him stretching his almost non-existent power potential to it's microscopic limits in one of the toughest HR parks in the league.

[ArcticKnight]

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no actually yours was pretty stupid but youre another one of these clowns that think if 2 guys have the same obp and slg that they are equally talented without looking at anything else
It reminds me a lot of the 12 tabling PT nits who think every 25/10 plays exactly the same because their too buried in their stats to open their eyes

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except, you know, he's pretty much right. plenty of studies have been done that support the argument that fast baserunners do more to distract the hitter than the defense/pitcher.

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Kyleb, you played/play the game, so I'm suprised at this comment. I'm not a stat guy, but I have played ball at many levels and understand the fundementals and the subtleties from inside the lines.

When you have player like Ichiro, Crawford, Pierre, Reyes, etc on 1st, the level of distraction to the pitcher and the defence is far greater than any distratcion to the batter.If it isn't, the manager has the wrong batter behind the basestealer. Here are a few reasons.

1. The pitcher is distracted and can rush his delivery and alter his mechanics.
2. For many pitchers, the curve (or any low breaking ball that may end up in the dirt) may no longer be in play, thus limiting the options the pitcher has. If the batter has studied tape and patterns, he will know this as well.
3. The 1st baseman has to play out of optimum fielding position and at least one middle infielder is either highly distracted and/or moving to cover 2nd, and thus out of position also.
4. If you have a batter that follows a basestealing threat in the order, and he is distracted, then you move the batter somehwere else in the order. This type of distraction is less likely when the batter is left-handed, and as you are aware, have a LH hitter follow a basestealer creates more holes, and makes the typical double-play harder on a pulled hit.

Personally, I find a runner on 2b much more distracting as he is moving around (as is the SS) in the same background that I am looking at for a release point from a righthanded pitcher. That said, you adjust and focus, or you don't produce. If you don't produce, you don't play....

[mo42nyy]

pretty much agree with articknight just said

its so much easier to hit with runners being held on base, fielder having to run to cover bases, the pitcher forgetting about you. its a royal pain in the ass to pitch with some fast [censored] causing havic

Kyleb can you provide us with a link to these studies

[kyleb]

i'm on vacation but they were quoted fairly frequently on HBT and BP.

from an anecdotal standpoint as a pitcher, the baserunner on first is not a distraction if you have any idea what you are doing. the pickoff throws are meant to keep him close as an RHP, not to actually produce an out. your delivery to the plate from the stretch will be the same 100% of the time regardless of who is on first base. your delivery time must be 1.3 seconds or less, or you're going to be murdered regardless of who is on first.

your stretch delivery is not something that changes based on what runners are on base. you will only use a slide step when called for by the manager or catcher if they have a good read. you're the pitcher: you throw the ball. let the catcher do the rest.

as for limiting your breaking pitches, yes, that's always possible. that being said, most pitchers don't use a curve as their groundball pitch to generate a gidp with runners on and will more likely use their two-seam fastball, change, or slider/cutter with runners on. there's a lot of reasons you need three pitches to succeed in baseball - this is just one of them. (personally i stick to change/gyroball vs. RH batters and change/two-seam vs. LH batters for this situation)

hitters have to adjust situationally with runners on base. if the runner gets a bad jump, you're expected to foul the ball off or put it in play. if the runner has a great jump, you're expected to take or put a late swing on the ball with the intention of missing to keep the catcher on his heels. everything you do is based on what the runner on first will do if he is a known basestealer.

does this make more sense on why the batter would instinctively be more distracted than the pitcher?

the point about the defense being out of position is valid; however, it is only glorified by successful hit and run attempts that you see and ignores the times when ichiro is thrown out on botched hit and run plays (which has happened recently).

[kyleb]

also,

i don't understand the myth that having a LH batter with a threat on base to steal is somehow more difficult to deal with than an RH batter.

1) the catcher can throw behind the LH batter on a pickoff to first and the baserunner is less likely to see this
2) the shortstop simply covers second rather than the second baseman. the net result is the same, and if the ball is pulled to 2b on a steal + cover, the resulting 4-6-3 gidp is even easier to turn.

[Bjorn]

Isn't the fact that batters have lower OPS with a base stealer on 1st more a question of incorrect coaching and managing rather than a real distraction effect?

To me it instinctivly seems that usually the stealer should do his thing and completly ignore the hitter and that the hitter should basicly allways ignore what's going on at 1st. I'm sure there is all sorts of fancy sabermetric math showing this but it should be obvious from the fact that a base hit is so much more valuable than a steal...

/Bjorn

[ArcticKnight]

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also,

i don't understand the myth that having a LH batter with a threat on base to steal is somehow more difficult to deal with than an RH batter

1) the catcher can throw behind the LH batter on a pickoff to first and the baserunner is less likely to see this.

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Do you think this occurs frequently enough do overcome the large advantage that a pulling LH hitter has when the 1st basemen is forced to play closer to the bag?


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(2) the shortstop simply covers second rather than the second baseman. the net result is the same, and if the ball is pulled to 2b on a steal + cover, the resulting 4-6-3 gidp is even easier to turn.

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The net result isn't the same, IMO. As noted above, the 1st basemen is still out of position with a pulling LH batter, but the SS or 3Bman are not out of position with a pulling RH batter. The fact that SS and 2nd baseman are interchangable on coverage doesn't change the fact that a pulling LH hitter has a hole and a pulling RH hitter doesn't.

[kyleb]

the 1b is essentially playing closer to the line, which might not be considered "out of position" and instead is just a defensive change (prevents more doubles, allows more singles) that may or may not be -EV. first basemen with a RHP have a lot of time to get back into position, anyway.