TT v squeeze 100bb

[BobboFitos]

good post because this situation happens often and is why squeezing is just such a pos ev play.

[ QUOTE ]
so his squeeze actually makes this pot a bit bigger than a regular rr pot (23bb) and i only have 100bb stack so having 4-5x pot should really affect my decision here (i think?).

[/ QUOTE ]
interestingly, for a true math viewpoint once his rr exceeds the ~55 mark total (which it barely does) your decision is somewhat one dimensional.

[ QUOTE ]
also, if you call would you prefer the other guy called or folded? this might be a pointless question, but i cant imagine him overcalling would be good for you.



[/ QUOTE ]
without a doubt you want villain to overcall. without a doubt.

[ QUOTE ]
and finally, order your preferred decision. ie: 4bet > shove > fold > call.

[/ QUOTE ]
in spots like this i prefer calling > 4bet > shove > fold.

[ddubois]

BTW, I'm getting increasingly nauseous when I'm in a situation where I have to call a full-stack shove holding AK. Always stacking off to 4-bets with AK is a huge leak, but in this spot, since there's a squeeze involved, my little aside point might not be relevant here.

From villain's point of view, what should he call with? He's has to call 362 to win 498, so when (winpct)(498) = (1-winpct)(362), i.e., winpct = 42.1%, he should call.

If OP does this with TT+ and bluffs...

Hand 0: 58.483% 45.86% 12.62% 327469344 90116473.50 { TT+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 41.517% 28.90% 12.62% 206328477 90116473.50 { AKo }

Hand 0: 55.411% 54.09% 01.32% 238971450 5821017.00 { TT+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.589% 43.27% 01.32% 191160948 5821017.00 { JJ }

Hand 0: 55.545% 43.77% 11.78% 104170775 28033128.00 { TT+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.455% 32.68% 11.78% 77773225 28033128.00 { AKs }

If OP does this with half his tens and bluffs:

Hand 0: 58.635% 44.84% 13.79% 292529238 89996044.50 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 41.365% 27.57% 13.79% 179866497 89996044.50 { AKo }

Hand 0: 55.686% 42.81% 12.87% 93103937 27991287.00 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.314% 31.44% 12.87% 68376097 27991287.00 { AKs }

Hand 0: 55.686% 42.81% 12.87% 93103937 27991287.00 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.314% 31.44% 12.87% 68376097 27991287.00 { AKs }

If OP does this with half his tens, and JJ+/AK:

Hand 0: 59.831% 58.37% 01.46% 227870622 5712978.00 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.169% 38.71% 01.46% 151108734 5712978.00 { JJ }

Hand 0: 58.635% 44.84% 13.79% 292529238 89996044.50 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 41.365% 27.57% 13.79% 179866497 89996044.50 { AKo }

Hand 0: 55.686% 42.81% 12.87% 93103937 27991287.00 { JJ+, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.314% 31.44% 12.87% 68376097 27991287.00 { AKs }

If OP does this with JJ+/AK:

Hand 0: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }

Hand 0: 63.415% 61.85% 01.57% 222385788 5645496.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.585% 35.01% 01.57% 125907060 5645496.00 { JJ }

Hand 0: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }

If OP does this with QQ+/AK and bluffs:

Hand 0: 59.337% 40.16% 19.17% 187750536 89625109.50 { QQ+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.663% 21.49% 19.17% 100458237 89625109.50 { AKo }

Hand 0: 61.794% 61.59% 00.21% 227778498 772425.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 38.206% 38.00% 00.21% 140534316 772425.00 { JJ }

Hand 0: 56.334% 38.45% 17.88% 59916071 27863076.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah5h, 7h6h, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.666% 25.78% 17.88% 40177441 27863076.00 { AKs }

If OP does this with QQ+/AK:

Hand 0: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }

Hand 0: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }

Hand 0: 58.096% 38.81% 19.28% 55825068 27736416.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 41.904% 22.62% 19.28% 32535636 27736416.00 { AKs }

(Should I have given bluffs a full A5s, rather than just two combos?)

So two conclusions:
1) AKs is always a call.
2) The tighter OP is, the better AK is relative to JJ, but the worse both get overall. If OP was a nit, both should be folds.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold > 4bet > shove > call, I only 4bet if villain is crazy out of line

[/ QUOTE ]


how does 4-betting work here? with TT you're committed vs a shove unless you minraise

[/ QUOTE ]
well, 4betting IS essentially the same, because you obviously would never 4bet/fold here. the only time it matters if villain would shove a hand he would fodl to a shove (like 99) or fold a hand he would call to a shove (like JJ) etc. in my experience, people are more likely to shove a hand like 99 to a small 4bet rather then call an allin. Why? No idea, it's not logical, but they do it.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
i think actually it's more likely that a small 4-bet is better because the villian is a lot less likely to reshove over a 4-bet with AK or JJ than he is to call a shove with them, but it depends on your preflop style entirely, i.e. how often you 4-bet and how often you straight shove

[/ QUOTE ]
you serious? no one folds AK preflop, and few fold JJ preflop in this spot too.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so josh and i did some math on this and found out he has to fold roughly 59% for this to breakeven. i think thats lowe enough to the point where this is +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing that makes me skeptical about this is that if we shove, villain's range for calling is like QQ+, AK, sometimes AQ and JJ, so our hand is about the same as 22. Are you gonna shove any pair here?

[/ QUOTE ]


sure. not everytime obviously, but 22 and TT are basically interchangeable until you start developing some history and he starts calling with 99- and to a smaller extent AQ-

[/ QUOTE ]
people DO call with with mid pairs though sometimes, so no, TT is NOT 22. in spots like this, AA>KK>QQ>JJ>TT>99>88>77>66 >55>44>33>22, even though I think some people feel (incorrectly) its AA/KK>QQ/JJ>TT-22

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
without a doubt you want villain to overcall. without a doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]


without a doubt? i disagree with this. most of the value in your hand is from playing for pair value so i'd rather take the flop HU where i don't have to c/f when i don't hit a set, or let it get checked through when i'm against 2-4 overcards. if i KNEW it would get hu, i'd always call. if i KNEW he'd overcall i'd always shove or fold

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
without a doubt you want villain to overcall. without a doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]


without a doubt? i disagree with this. most of the value in your hand is from playing for pair value so i'd rather take the flop HU where i don't have to c/f when i don't hit a set, or let it get checked through when i'm against 2-4 overcards. if i KNEW it would get hu, i'd always call. if i KNEW he'd overcall i'd always shove or fold

[/ QUOTE ]
no, you're misunderstanding josh. that villain is clearly making a mistake, even a small one, and the squeezer (and you) will benefit from it.

and my point about pf... you cant play for set value, because of that you want more dead money (even though it's not truly dead) to increase your actual equity in the pot. if you always took it HU, you may want to jack it back up pf, mainly because it means you're stacking off anyway, you dont want him to improve and win a sizeable pot when he wouldnt have, obviously unless he will fire with air at the pot (which some do NOT) when they miss. alot of variables there but what im trying to say is you're playing for best hand equity pf but you'd rather not seal it off if you could encourage a mistake from the last guy, even though it will make postflop somewhat murky and difficult.

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold > 4bet > shove > call, I only 4bet if villain is crazy out of line

[/ QUOTE ]


how does 4-betting work here? with TT you're committed vs a shove unless you minraise

[/ QUOTE ]
well, 4betting IS essentially the same, because you obviously would never 4bet/fold here. the only time it matters if villain would shove a hand he would fodl to a shove (like 99) or fold a hand he would call to a shove (like JJ) etc. in my experience, people are more likely to shove a hand like 99 to a small 4bet rather then call an allin. Why? No idea, it's not logical, but they do it.

[/ QUOTE ]


fair enough. i guess inducing someone into calling and doing something stupid postflop has value too

[DJ Sensei]

I would think a small 4bet is better than a shove, because it'll get some weaker hands into his range. However, if he has AQ I guess we'd rather he folded than stacked off. So, shove is fine if you're into that sort of thing. I hate to stack off in a spot like this, but calling oop is pretty rough too. I don't think folding is terrible. If you can put him on a range that says shoving is +EV, thats obviously a better idea.

[JEFF or DAD]

[ QUOTE ]

people DO call with with mid pairs though sometimes, so no, TT is NOT 22. in spots like this, AA>KK>QQ>JJ>TT>99>88>77>66 >55>44>33>22, even though I think some people feel (incorrectly) its AA/KK>QQ/JJ>TT-22

[/ QUOTE ]

wow do some ppl actually think that lol