Will IM ever replace e-mail?

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They thought TV would replace movies and radio.
It didn't.

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Um, movies are scrambling these days.



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Well, 60 years later...and it's still arguable.

Besides, movies have substantially changed, and so have the alternative choices in visual entertainment. It used to be even poor people could see them for a nickel, and they did. And they didn't have anywhere else to go for visual entertainment that was any better. That's what made movies big. Now when you buy a movie ticket, it's at lot harder not to notice the money, even if you've got plenty to spare. And you can get a lot of the same experience, in infinite variety, in the comfort of your home on DVD's.

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You're right with radio because people do drive around a lot. If it weren't for car radios, radio would indeed be dead. Nobody sits in their bedroom listening to boxing matches on the radio.

As for IM replacing e-mail, well, that's more complicated. E-mail as it exists today will not always exist. To claim otherwise is right up there with "640k is enough for anyone." I'd think that an IM with a sort of "lag" component to it will be the future. I mean that it's an IM client, but if you're not on you can get messages. So, basically an option to send an e-mail with attachments over IM will be the next thing. One interface, both purposes.

One issue that needs to be overcome is the responsibility of businesses regarding what goes out over their corporate networks. After that ridiculousness is taken care of, something like IM will have free reign. A lot of corporations have internal-only IM systems, and it has to do with them controlling/monitoring what is said over their networks. They won't let the employees just use their "personal" accounts. This is ludicrous because the same employee can chat from their treo at the same time and share all the same corporate secrets.

This is an area where I think everyone knows what will eventually happen, but it's currently very easy to sound wise and educated denouncing those eventualities.

My girlfriend is still convinced that paper will be around FOREVER.

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Paper will be gone starting about 30 years ago. There are many reasons to use paper. It isn't going anywhere for a long time. From what I've read, use of computers has only increased the use of paper.

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Movies are content. They are not scrambling, they are driving the uptake of new technology - home theatres etc. What may be struggling is movie theatres. These are basically the "client application".

The stand-alone email client may also be dying. But email is not. Include some IM in Outlook / Thunderbird etc and users can choose. This already exists, to an extent, with integration. Users choose the appropriate tool for the job - IM/Email/Browser/phone/SMS/MMS. Often this will be dictated by content - not by any user preference.

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I was assuming that he meant movie theaters were supposed to be affected, not the content. The content isn't readily distinguishable from television content, so that would have been a stupid claim. The only difference is the length and possibly offensive material.

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Possibly offensive material covers a lot regarding which movies are made.

Other clear differences are commercial interruptions and their demands on pacing, subject matter(you write different stories for an hour than you do for an hour and a half or two hours), the enjoyability and sociability of going out versus staying home, quality of sound and picture, and lack of advertisements(station identification promos and logos are frequent to constant these days while shows are running on cable, and the trend seems to be increasing rather than decreasing).

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I would also laugh at anyone who attempted to provide one of these sites as professional contact details instead of a genuine email address / real domain.

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Ditto.

[gusmahler]

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What do myspace / facebook offer that other internet disasters like Angelfire and [censored] did not? Easy to build websites for those who know no better? From what I can see the only differences are some basic personal forum features for each generic site + some easy to use hyperlinks between user created sites. Seems to be a lot of hype about very little.

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I'm not a myspace/facebook user, but they do add a lot more than just the ability to create a site.

1) First and foremost is the network. There are millions of myspace users out there. So making a myspace site is a way to get myspace users familiar with you. (E.g., lots of rock bands have myspace accounts solely because they want to tap into the market.

2) Related to the first is the way to tap into the network. You don't just build a site showing off your coin collection. You are able to find other coin collectors and interact with them. There was an article in Newsweek that detailed this. It detailed how an incoming student would find others with similar interests and have a group of friends immediately upon hitting campus. (Or you can use it to get sex.)

However, those reasons seem to be restricted to younger people.

[gusmahler]

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I mainly communicate via MSN/text messages, and only use emails for internet shopping [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] It's just a lot faster to IM/text someone than email and wait for them to reply.


[/ QUOTE ]IM being "faster" than email is just a function of how you use email.

I've now been working for 8 years for 3 different employers. At each employer, all my co-workers have Outlook (or whatever e-mail program they use) open all the time. Plus, they carry Blackberries or equivalent devices. So in those corporate environments, sending an email takes exactly the same amount of time as sending an IM.

That's why I wonder if IM will ever take over in corporate workplaces. I just don't see how it provides any advantage over email.

(In the home market, it is only faster because many people don't keep Yahoo Mail or Gmail accounts up all the time, so they only check it every few hours, as opposed to keeping an IM program up all the time while at the computer.)

[Kimbell175113]

gusmahler,
you're absolutely right about the age thing. I am a college student, and there are so many times - daily - where facebook is not just the best, but the only way to quickly and exhaustively find people and groups and events for all kinds of different things. At first, I didn't like the idea, but it's just sooo damn useful.

It follows that people check it all the time (or just never log off) and therefore sending FB messages (I'm talking the equivalent of PMs, by the way, not the public wall posts that are just 'how bout last weekend?' type stuff) takes a few fewer clicks and is oh-so-slightly more convenient.

And oh yeah, you don't have to remember any addresses. Just a full name, or a name and a class, and you can get by with less than that in most cases. A face and a mutual friend, maybe. Again, I have no great love for facebook, especially the photo album aspect, but being a young person without it (especially at a big school, like me) is just inconveniencing yourself for no reason.

Just recently, my academic advisor just made a facebook account and has just realized that none of his students email him anymore.

[Stagger_Lee]

So these are like dumbed down mini-internets? If I wanted to find coin collectors why would I want to limit myself to coin collectors at a particular site when there is a whole world-wide-web out there? These places seem successful - so I am obviously still missing the point.

Re: People who carry PDA's everywhere for instant email are displaying a lack of time management skills and a total lack of focus. They are letting the 'sender' set priorities. One of the great things about email is the ability to pre-sort and manage your communications. Just because someone sends you an email doesn't mean you have to read it straight away. Same for when your phone rings or an SMS arrives. Use the tools, don't let them drive you. So many people screw this up.

Microsofts "Office Communicator" app is a great corporate IM tool that integrates with exchange, so you can get the best of both worlds - Email and IM.

[Idiotex]

I love chatting with mates while they're at work and I'm playing poker (on MSN). Facebook / MySpace are a different kettle of fish. I think in many respects they are the ultimate narcissism / self-indulgence. Look at me, read about me, find out about my life.

Having said that I have friends that are traveling overseas, and their blogs combined with the photos they post provide for some entertainment.

Facebook can also be useful for finding / contacting old friends.

[gusmahler]

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Re: People who carry PDA's everywhere for instant email are displaying a lack of time management skills and a total lack of focus. They are letting the 'sender' set priorities. One of the great things about email is the ability to pre-sort and manage your communications. Just because someone sends you an email doesn't mean you have to read it straight away. Same for when your phone rings or an SMS arrives. Use the tools, don't let them drive you. So many people screw this up.


[/ QUOTE ]In general I agree with you. I always thought it weird that people go running to answer their phone when they have voice mail. Same with email. Lots of time managers say that checking your email only a few times a work day greatly improves productivity.

But it also depends on what your business is. Litigators need to answer questions quickly, so that is why they often carry email with them.

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Sometimes productivity isn't nearly as important as getting a particular thing done quickly. That can also keep your ass out of the grease fire your boss might be considering planning your death in.