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#33
08-07-2007, 06:09 AM
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Re: How many online pros average +500k a year in the world?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You should take a look at some simulation graphs posted over in the MTT forum. There is very significant long-term variance swings even for high-volume online play. I was amazed when I saw those graphs. Unfortunately, can't find link right now. [/ QUOTE ] Pretty sure OP meant poker pros, not lottery players. [/ QUOTE ] The graphs weren't for MTT players specifically. The graphs were for indepedent trials with a specified edge, bet size, and bankroll. Nothing to do with the specific game being played. Could be chess, backgammon, blackjack, whatever. I really wish I could find the link to those graphs. Eye opening stuff. 
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#34
08-07-2007, 06:10 AM
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Re: How many online pros average +500k a year in the world?
I am having trouble seeing further than about 50 players, perhaps not even that many. I also expect I've heard of most of them. I think a lot of people are overestimating how easy it is to make that much money. It's not THAT hard to have a $50k month: I bet there're 200 people who do that at least once a year, but it's a lot, lot harder to average that much over the year.
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#36
08-07-2007, 06:26 AM
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Re: How many online pros average +500k a year in the world?
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For an earning level to be valid it probably has to be averaged over 5 years of full time play. The effect of variance in poker is extreme and players with a nice positive edge can still have ugly long-term downswings of 1 year or more, just as negative edge players can have long-term upswings of 1 year or more. [/ QUOTE ] LOL at 6 millions hands to find your true WR. What type of std deviation does this need to get within .5PTBB/100 at a 95% CI. Like 2500PTBB/100?!?
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#37
08-07-2007, 06:30 AM
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Re: How many online pros average +500k a year in the world?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You should take a look at some simulation graphs posted over in the MTT forum. There is very significant long-term variance swings even for high-volume online play. I was amazed when I saw those graphs. Unfortunately, can't find link right now. [/ QUOTE ] Pretty sure OP meant poker pros, not lottery players. [/ QUOTE ] The graphs weren't for MTT players specifically. The graphs were for indepedent trials with a specified edge, bet size, and bankroll. Nothing to do with the specific game being played. Could be chess, backgammon, blackjack, whatever. I really wish I could find the link to those graphs. Eye opening stuff. [/ QUOTE ] If you think that the variance is the same for MTT's as it is for cash-games then you are wrong.
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#39
08-07-2007, 06:48 AM
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Re: How many online pros average +500k a year in the world?
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[ QUOTE ] I think you may have accidentaly missed the title of this post. He is talking ONLINE pros. There isn't a ton of variance when playing a million + hands a year and there sure as heck aren't any endorsemnet deals. [/ QUOTE ] You should take a look at some simulation graphs posted over in the MTT forum. There is very significant long-term variance swings even for high-volume online play. I was amazed when I saw those graphs. Unfortunately, can't find link right now. [/ QUOTE ] linky anyone?
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