16: JJ on the bubble

[kyro]

I disagree on both counts. A guy raising J6s earlier in the tournament doesn't necessarily have a wider range than somebody like myself on the bubble.

[TruFloridaGator]

Just wow, he's the [censored] monster stack. I just played a set of 60s yesterday where a a tight regular showed up with 54s in the nearly same spot. Why would a donkey be even worse.

[kyro]

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Just wow, he's the [censored] monster stack. I just played a set of 60s yesterday where a a tight regular showed up with 54s in the nearly same spot. Why would a donkey be even worse.

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I'm not saying your average donkey is raising less here. i'm saying you can't pinpoint a raising range here based on if he's a fish or a shark. They both can be raising light here, whereas a guy just happy to coast in the money would raise tighter.

[TruFloridaGator]

I'm at a loss for words. Has he been raising a lot? Has he raised wide early? Does he raise wide deep? If we can say yes to any of these then we can justify a shove. If he hasn't been active then we can obviously fold.

[TwistedEcho]

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Also when people raise 4x instead of 3x they usually have a stronger hand range

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How do you know this is true, with a large stack like this he might just be a bully. Our personal experience is not always the best indicator of truth, if you pull this conclusion from a database that's another matter.

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i know this because i play poker. 4x raises in sngs/mtts are more often than not a hand like AQ/KQ/JJ/TT and less likely to be AK/AA/KK. They also pretty much never fold when you shove. Obviously this isn't always true, but without a read i expect a 4xbb raise midtournament to A)be a mid strength hand, and B)i think i have less FE than if they raised 3bb. This is a really standard betsize tell, and i forget the amount of times i've doubled up in a tournament by just overbet shoving QQ+ AK vs a 4x raise, since they don't fold.

[TwistedEcho]

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Also when people raise 4x instead of 3x they usually have a stronger hand range AND you have less FE, this is the main reason why im folding, especially if he has been 3x it normally and now makes it 4x. If his standard raise is 4x then i'd probably shove, but its close.

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The stronger hand range is weird. If he 4xes the bottom of his range is much better than if he 3xes, but the top of his range is worse.

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Yeah i didn't think i had to explain the 4x betsize, i figured everyone who plays poker realises 4x is more often hands like AQ/JJ/TT, and they don't fold when you reshove on them. Obviously in a sng bubble it could be lots of other things, but OP didn't bother to give us reads or anything

[darnold305]

Thanks for taking it to SNGWIZ twistedecho

I shoved... he called and flipped AT. flop A, bye bye darnold

Looking back, and seeing that he called with AT, I think this guy was rarely folding, which makes me think I could've folded. However, without reads I still think this is a shove against your avg 16 player

[ymu]

I agree that 4x is often around 99-JJ and strong unpaired paint, but I think we need to know how much he's been abusing the bubble.

If I was him I'd be raising very wide, but I'd also probably be pushing instead of raising to stop the medium stack having any other options.

If he's been pushing a lot (with hero or someone else at ~15BBs), then I think he has a horrible hand that he doesn't want to push through me but is happy to take a shortie on with.

If he's mostly been raising 3x, then I think he has a decent hand that would rather not have to see a flop.

If he's been raising with fairly normal non-bubble abuse frequency, then it's probably a fold because we won't have enough FE on a tighter range.

These are my best guesses based on not having seen him show anything down during his big stack phase (which is quite plausible even if I had been paying attention) and having no idea how he has played so far. Any other info would help make better guesses. Need a read.

[IFoldPktOnes]

I wouldn't push this against a standard $16s player since they are usually either raising too tight, or calling too wide. I would push this against someone who is correctly raising wide here and smart enough to realise that I am pushing incredibly tight. So I think whether or not UTG is a donk is a big factor here.

I'm curious as to what people think about this:
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with all of this being said i can see the reason for being nitty and folding in the situation. however, if you dont feel like fold i would argue a variation of the stop and go call his bet and shove the flop if the board looks good. because if he was making the raise with big cards you can likely push him out on the flop with the push if it misses him, or get him to call you with overcards as a bigger dog then prior. this also allows you to get away with 12 bb if you call and see a bad flop.

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Specifically against a player who is raising wide and calling too much to make JJ a +EV push.