assume bonds ties this weekend. does he play at all next week?

[iggymcfly]

Where are you getting this 7 year window from for A-Rod. If he's within 50 HRs of the record when he turns 39, I really doubt that he'll just retire. He can always go to another team and DH if he has to. Look at Bonds, his body's been ravaged by steroids, and he's still going at 43. Honestly, I'd give A-Rod about a 60% chance of breaking the record before he retires.

[kbfc]

[ QUOTE ]
At the rate he's going now? You mean getting on base half the time? Or having the best EqA in baseball (.369; second is .346)? He's still the best offensive player in baseball.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has hit 20 HR through 102 games. If he keeps his season-long pace, he will hit 11.7 more HRs = 165.7. His production and playing time has dropped as the season has gone on (4 HRs in July). I feel comfortable saying 165 would be a >50th percentile performance. This assumes that he doesn't play next year, but that's a whole other story...

Also, simply getting on base, while helpful for one's team, isn't particularly helpful at increasing one's HR total. To do that, one must actually hit HRs.

[ QUOTE ]

You do realize that 32-year-old baseball players, even the great ones, do decline. You do realize that injuries become more and more commonplace, not the exception. Like I said, even 35 HR for the next seven years doesn't even break the soon-to-be-Bonds record, and even expecting A-Rod to average 35 HR the next seven years is laughable.

[/ QUOTE ]
The top 4 on the all-time list all hit the 'required' 260 HR's after their 32nd birthday. (Perhaps others did. I stopped looking after Mays.) A-Rod has ~3 more prime seasons before he even hits the 500-HR age for his predecessors. That's a gigantic headstart.

Of course he could get injured. That was the whole point. It will likely take an injury, however likely or unlikely, to prevent him from making it.

[FUJItheFISH]

1- i hope he breaks the record in san fran at home.
2- i hope the person who gets the ball gives it back to him. not a huge baseball follower but i think itd be great for bonds to have his little piece of baseball history.

[MikeyPatriot]

Ted Williams hit 228 from 32-41.
Sosa has hit 218 from age 32-present.
Reggie Jackson hit 250 from age 32-41.
Mike Schmidt hit 234 from 32-39.
Palmeiro hit 336 (!lol steroids!) from 32-40.
McCovey hit 208 from 32-42.
Eddie Murray hit 199 from 32-41.
Frank Thomas has hit 202 from 32-present.
Fred McGriff hit 204 from 32-40.
Stan Musial hit 248 from 32-42.
Willie Stargell hit 231 from 32-42.
Dave Winfield hit 229 from 32-43.
Carl Yastrzemski hit 195 from 32-43.
Andrew Dawson hit 213 from 32-41.

So, there you go. A lot of those numbers could be higher for various reasons. Williams had an injury that caused him to only play 9 and 37 in consecutive seasons. Yas played in a very pitcher friendly era. Considering A-Rod has no injury history and is probably as good or better than any player on this list, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he'll eventually pass Barry.

Also, Palmeiro, WTF.

[Vyse]

No one's saying it's UNREASONABLE he'll pass Bonds, but even someone who only dabbles in mathematics can plainly see he's an underdog clear as day, to the point that it's hardly debatable.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Williams had an injury that caused him to only play 9 and 37 in consecutive seasons

[/ QUOTE ]

lol injury. Try the Korean War.