live 3/6, AKo SB

[BigBadBabar]

hyper, if someone has a 4flush they're going to make it about 1 in 3 times so if you raise there in your example, giving them 6:2, then they're still correct to call.

[Hyperrrprank]

47 cards remaining unseen.
9 cards make them the flush

The exact odds are 4.22:1

[BigBadBabar]

sorry man, i'm pretty sure i've got this one down. you might want to check out some sources.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
47 cards remaining unseen.
9 cards make them the flush

The exact odds are 4.22:1

[/ QUOTE ]

you have two chances: flop and turn.

[mntndrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With around 4.5 outs for my two overs, BD flush and straight draws

[/ QUOTE ]

Point of clarification requested... I'm certain that the standard from SSHE on BDFD and BDSD are approx. 1.5 outs each, that makes 3 outs. I thought overcards were normally worth approx. 1.5 EACH, wouldn't that make your hand a 6 out hand instead of 4.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe 3 card BDSD's are worth 1.5 outs, but that refers to something like holding T9 with an 832 board. In that case, you'll make a straight if the turn and river come 76, J7, or QJ. This straight draw is effectively like a two-gapper because it only comes in if the turn and river are exactly JT. I discounted my overcard outs a little extra to come up with a guess of 4.5 outs.

Thanks everyone for the comments. Would you consider CR'ing a late position bet, say, from one of the last two players to possibly clean up outs?

[Hyperrrprank]

You have two chances, flop and turn, but then your odds aren't 6:2. Sorry if my example wasn't a great one, that's why I noted I was ignoring implied odds. If we're talking about going to the river the flush draw has to figure there are 3BB in the pot now, it's 1BB to call now and at least 1 more to call the turn, so it'll be more like 4:2 or 5:2. Still not a great call with rake.

If ignoring implied odds bugs you take the same example and imagine you flat call the flop and raise the turn. Or it is checked through the flop.

Either way, my point is that raising to protect against a flush draw does happen.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop. yes, i know you don't have anything, but when you bang out a flop bet after your pf action into a field the size of Rhode Island, you are very unlikely to get raised, even by a Q. this is especially true in a live game, where the players are timid little flowers. they are going to be absolutely horrified by your line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this a bit more? This sounds absolutely the opposite of true in this hand. Yes, lots of weak passive players will just call, but anyone with half a brain and a decent hand is going to absolutely LOVE the chance to raise it up to double charge (knocking out in this large pot is unlikely) the flush draws. Unless the entire table is weak passive betting this flop from the SB seems to invite a raise.

This goes back to my question about why we assume all live players except 2+2'ers are weak passive idiots. I'd agree that 75% of them are, but that still leaves one or two reasonable opponents at a given table. Most of those are too loose preflop in my experience, but I've only sat a handful of tables ever where SOMEONE wasn't ready to raise TPGK on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you are advocating a flop check here. So, if you were one of the limpers and you have a hand like QTo, are you gonna raise me if I bet the flop with my AK? You seem to think that AK should check here, which is fine if you think that, but that means you probably think I DON'T have AK when I bet, which means you are beat and if you are beat and raise I'm gonna 3bet your ass and now you're gonna have to pay a lot to see if you improve on the turn when it woulda only cost you one bet had you called.

There is another angle here, and that is getting people to make mistakes. By betting you may get people to folds hands that they shouldn't, and call with hands that they should raise.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the better question is why you'd even consider betting this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I already explained why, which is clearly wrong. Now i'm asking you why.

[/ QUOTE ]

pt #1) no one is folding a pair to your c bet.
pt #2) you have ace high
pt #3) i would honestly prefer it get checked around

those are just off the top of my head. im sure there are many other reasons to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 is not true.
#2 is true.
#3 is true.

[Runthemill]

raise

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]


if you make this bet 1000 times in a row, however, the combined -EV of the bet makes it terrible. just like playing J3s utg.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a really bad analogy.