100/200NL live 2-pair hand

[captainwacky]

while you are not going to get called often while ahead (by the combo draws or pair + draws) and are obviously getting called while behind, you also have to take into account that sometimes your shove is the only way to protect what is often going to be the best hand if kevin was just playing back at jamie. Flat calling a bet and raise and then having half the deck make your hand look awful sucks, and despite the results, I think folding this would be a little weak.

[rtc89]

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13kish more not 5200. Hero's line looks real strong and I know he wasn't bluffing.


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Really? Sorry about that: could have sworn it was 5 or 6k. Either way, yeah obvious push and obvious call for you.

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Definitely had over 20K to start the hand. It wouldn't even be a post w/ 12K to start!

[rtc89]

Def over 20K. I shoved WAY too quickly. Major leak. I am shocked Jamie had AK. Best hand he had all night.

[JooWish622]

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if you're raising 96s in MP, you've got to get it in here.

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I [censored] HATE it when people post stupid garbage like this. No, you don't have to do dick unless you strongly feel like you have the best hand and given the action, that won't be true nearly every time, so nothing says you have to go broke here. If you have never even played this high - short-stacking doesn't count - then save your worthless one-liners for SSNL where they might give a [censored].

But given that you checked the flop (which I don't like since bottom two is too vulnerable of a hand to slowplay) and the raiser is probably playing vs Jaime having discounted you (you didn't provide any reads on the other guy, btw, and that can make a big difference), I can see shoving there, but I would not be happy about it. If the other guy is not overly aggro and on the tighter side, I might actually find a fold, much as I would hate it.

Kirk

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ranges yo, against Gold, you have to include the raiser's range which is AQ and AK... AI imo,

I'm not sure what to do if you're deeper.

-Joo

[JooWish622]

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i've played with both players before. this is a pretty easy all in given all the information. Kevin would reraise Jamie here with any reasonable ace... and given the action Kevin can't have AA, and 99 or 66 is extremely unlikely given your 96. Just about the only way you are beat is Kevin having A6 or A9 suited... you still might get called by AK or AQ by either player, or a monster draw... but i don't see any way you can fold 96 here for 22k. and calling is by far worse then shoving.

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Thanks. Here is what happened. I shoved based on basically the above analysis. Jamie insta-folded (surprised?) and then Kevin sat for about five minutes and agonized. He finally said in all seriousness "I am just not good enough to lay this down to you" and called! Turn and river were 5, 5. I said "I have two-pair" and probably everyone thought I had AK, he showed a set of 9s.

I left thinking that this may have been nothing more than a cooler, but I wondered whether or not there was a way to play this hand with as much upside and less downside. All two pairs are really unlikely here as are sets, but I have lost bottom two to middle set before and I have not won big pots very often with bottom two. The all-in shove drives out everything but the sets and big draws. I now think that there I am getting called only by AA, 99, 66, A9, A6 and 7s8s (str8, flush draw) and maybe pair + flush draw (my best shot) I have very little equity and he needs to fold 70% of the time for this to be profitable.

I think it's possible as someone else said that my push would have folded out A9, A6 and possibly even 66 given that he was considering folding 99. BTW, the table reprimanded him severely for not insta-calling with 99 (I told him later I could not believe he hesitated, but Kevin is a good guy and genuinely considered laying it down as he was seriously worried about AA).

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the way you talk about "not having equity" makes me think you're completly not taking into account the dead money in the pot and the poss that your hand is goot. There's like 7-8k in there, you have 20k and you have bottom two against someone who raised jamie gold... obv it depends on your read of the raiser(and you [censored] yourself by letting jamie gold define your hand)

[rtc89]

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i've played with both players before. this is a pretty easy all in given all the information. Kevin would reraise Jamie here with any reasonable ace... and given the action Kevin can't have AA, and 99 or 66 is extremely unlikely given your 96. Just about the only way you are beat is Kevin having A6 or A9 suited... you still might get called by AK or AQ by either player, or a monster draw... but i don't see any way you can fold 96 here for 22k. and calling is by far worse then shoving.

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Thanks. Here is what happened. I shoved based on basically the above analysis. Jamie insta-folded (surprised?) and then Kevin sat for about five minutes and agonized. He finally said in all seriousness "I am just not good enough to lay this down to you" and called! Turn and river were 5, 5. I said "I have two-pair" and probably everyone thought I had AK, he showed a set of 9s.

I left thinking that this may have been nothing more than a cooler, but I wondered whether or not there was a way to play this hand with as much upside and less downside. All two pairs are really unlikely here as are sets, but I have lost bottom two to middle set before and I have not won big pots very often with bottom two. The all-in shove drives out everything but the sets and big draws. I now think that there I am getting called only by AA, 99, 66, A9, A6 and 7s8s (str8, flush draw) and maybe pair + flush draw (my best shot) I have very little equity and he needs to fold 70% of the time for this to be profitable.

I think it's possible as someone else said that my push would have folded out A9, A6 and possibly even 66 given that he was considering folding 99. BTW, the table reprimanded him severely for not insta-calling with 99 (I told him later I could not believe he hesitated, but Kevin is a good guy and genuinely considered laying it down as he was seriously worried about AA).

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the way you talk about "not having equity" makes me think you're completly not taking into account the dead money in the pot and the poss that your hand is goot. There's like 7-8k in there, you have 20k and you have bottom two against someone who raised jamie gold... obv it depends on your read of the raiser(and you [censored] yourself by letting jamie gold define your hand)

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I did the math with the dead money and 7s8s in the range. It's a little different if you let all 78 in but not that much different.

[JooWish622]

could you show the math? It doesnt seem right that given your hand, the action, and the relative shallowness of stacks that a raise AI here is isnt +EV and that a fold is better.

[rtc89]

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could you show the math? It doesnt seem right that given your hand, the action, and the relative shallowness of stacks that a raise AI here is isnt +EV and that a fold is better.

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I didn't say a fold was better. I said that to be break even I need him to fold a lot against a tight range that includes better hands and a good draw. It depends on how tight he plays it.

Here are some poker stove calculations. To keep it simple, say I start with 22K and am covered. We put 700 each in pre-flop (2100 pot at the flop). Jamie bets 1500, Kevin rr to 5500. Then the pot is 9100 before my bet. I have 21300 left.

- If I push and everyone folds, I win 9100.
- If I push and get called by one player I either
-- win 24200 (Jamie's 2200 + 22000 from Kevin)
-- lose 21700 (that I bet in the pot)

Some specifics ... he only calls with 2 pair, set, sfd

17,820 games 0.031 secs 574,838 games/sec

Board: As 9s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.953% 08.95% 00.01% 1594 1.50 { 9h6h }
Hand 1: 91.047% 91.04% 00.01% 16223 1.50 { AA, 99, 66, A9s, A6s, 8s7s, A9o, A6o }<---- only oesfd

With this calling range, I have 9% equity if he calls. Say he calls 33% of the time. Then I win 9% x 34% = 3.1% of the time he calls for 740 in equity. I lose 34% x 91% = 31.1% of the time for 6750 in negative equity. He folds 66% of the time so I have 6000 in fold equity. So break even with this tight range is he needs to fold 66% of the time.

If we loosen up his range to include any oesd (any 78) then things change dramatically:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: As 9s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.200% 36.20% 00.00% 11825 1.50 { 9h6h }
Hand 1: 63.800% 63.80% 00.00% 20842 1.50 { AA, 99, 66, A9s, A6s, 87s, A9o, A6o, 87o }<--- includes all oesd

Doing the same math he only has to fold 20% of the time for this to be break even.

If he would do this with other combo draws such as any reasonable pair + fd then we get:

20,790 games 0.016 secs 1,299,375 games/sec

Board: As 9s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.469% 16.44% 00.03% 3418 6.00 { 9h6h }
Hand 1: 83.531% 83.50% 00.03% 17360 6.00 { AA, 99, 66, A9s, A6s, Ks6s, 9s6s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, A9o, A6o }

16% equity and he needs to fold 54% of the time for me to break even.

[aaaaaaaa]

isnt the guy who raised jamie golds flop bet gonna have a very wide range because jamie gold is so aggro think it makes a shove a lot easier because u know he knows how aggressive jamie plays and he can raise him profitable very light. is it possible he can call u with a worse hand thinking that u know jamie is fos and that u know he knows hes fos and therefore raising jamie very light (probably thinking to deep into it but just a thought)?if u had a fl draw here would it be a good shove?

[catcher193]

omg all in all ianslaa in all in al in al ina la nai naalnm aina laianlainalin alin alinalin lai nlianlain ali naln al nali