The worst statistical beat I have ever taken

[Stigen]

Probably standard...

tallebarr posted the small blind - $10.00
hophophophop posted the big blind - $20.00
** Dealing card to Pers1: Jack of Spades, Jack of Clubs
callthewater called - $20.00
Spooch called - $20.00
Pers1 raised - $80.00
sulzyla folded
tallebarr called - $80.00
hophophophop folded
callthewater called - $80.00
Spooch folded

** Dealing the flop: Queen of Spades, Queen of Clubs, Queen of Hearts
tallebarr bet - $140.00
callthewater called - $140.00
Pers1 went all-in - $1420.00
tallebarr went all-in - $1280.00
callthewater folded
tallebarr shows: 4 of Spades, 4 of Clubs

** Dealing the turn: 4 of Hearts

** Dealing the river: 4 of Diamonds

tallebarr wins $3260.00 from the main pot



Board: Qs Qc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 98.788% 97.68% 01.11% 967 11.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 01.212% 00.10% 01.11% 1 11.00 { 4c4s }

[feelixthegreek]

Here's a fun one:

1/2 NL live. I have KhJh in SB. Five way PF for $10 each.

Flop is Th9h4c

I lead out for $30, get called in two places.

Turn brings 8h. I lead out for $80. I'm raised to $200. Third player hems, haws, says "F-it" it pushes all-in, like $240. I push my stack. Raiser holds up 2h3h, says "I guess I'm beat" and folds.

I turn over my hand, all in guy says, "oh, you have one of my outs."

River is 6h. All-in guy yells "I GOT IT," turns over the 7h with some card of another suit.

Just you're basic one outer, but jesus, you gotta love his turn push! He must have calculated the price of the free hat they give you for hitting a straight flush into his implied odds.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
Other: Is a (3/47)*(1/46) possible?

[/ QUOTE ]

closest i can come up with:

34o v AA
555 board
on the turn you can get 3 cards to keep your hopes up, if you hit an ace on the turn, you got one 5 left. if you hit the 5 you get two outs.

calc the prob however you want

[h_ven]

One outerments....

Hand #42332081-65583 at Madera (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 27/Jun/07 17:28:09

aurigamortis is at seat 0 with $66.
WillieMays7 is at seat 1 with $25.45.
sshooter is at seat 2 with $66.90.
Aceswld11 is at seat 3 with $63.15.
The Gray Wolf is at seat 4 with $60.65.
levk13 is at seat 5 with $0 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 1.

sshooter posts the small blind of $.25.
Aceswld11 posts the big blind of $.50.

aurigamortis: -- --
WillieMays7: 8c 8d
sshooter: -- --
Aceswld11: -- --
The Gray Wolf: -- --

Pre-flop:

The Gray Wolf raises to $1.75. aurigamortis folds.
WillieMays7 calls. sshooter calls. Aceswld11 calls.


Flop (board: Ad 3h 2h):

sshooter checks. Aceswld11 checks. The Gray Wolf
checks. WillieMays7 checks.

Turn (board: Ad 3h 2h 8s):

sshooter bets $4.50. Aceswld11 folds. The Gray Wolf
calls. WillieMays7 raises to $12. sshooter
re-raises to $47.50. The Gray Wolf goes all-in for
$58.90. WillieMays7 goes all-in for $23.70.
sshooter calls.

River (board: Ad 3h 2h 8s 3c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

The Gray Wolf shows Kh Ah.
The Gray Wolf has Kh Ah Ad 3h 3c: two pair, aces and threes.
WillieMays7 shows 8c 8d.
WillieMays7 has 8c 8d 3h 8s 3c: full house, eights full of threes.
sshooter shows 3s 3d.
sshooter has 3s 3d Ad 3h 3c: four threes.


Hand #42332081-65583 Summary:

$2 is raked from a total pot of $148.50.
$2 is raked from the main pot of $78.10.
$0 is raked from side pot #1 of $70.40.
sshooter wins the main pot $76.10 with four threes.
sshooter wins the side pot $70.40 with four threes.

Cliff notes:

One outer with one pull of the deck has a 2.3% chance to win. ripe.

[ChuckyB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In stud hi/lo, I held AA24 with a 3 flush and villain held Q 10 4 5 rainbow and he hit running 2 3 A while I didn't flush or lo.

YOU WILL NEVER COME CLOSE TO THIS WITH YOUR 5%

[/ QUOTE ]


im too lazy to do the numbers but this is siiiick

[/ QUOTE ]


EV of AA24 (3 flush) is about 90% according to twodimes.net