NL100: AJs Flops big combo draw

[Erudito]

Let us assume that Hero called the check-raise on the flop. Turn card is a blank, say 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], SB moves all-in. What is Hero's move?
What if the turn card pairs the board and put the third flush, say, 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB moves all-in? What is Hero's move?

[BJJIII]

STUFF IT. if you call the CR you gotta go to the river with your hand. Stuff it in on the flop so you get to see all 5 cards.

[roll]

My experience with these scenarios is that when you do shove and when you do get called you're up against a set A LOT of the time.

I also find it very unlikely that villain, who is unknown, is cold calling raises preflop with offsuit connectors from the SB.. so I don't think 97o and the like are really in his range..

I think its important to think about what you would do if villain flips over a set when he check raises to $22.

What happens if you just call and hit your gutshot or flush on the turn? Will villain lay down a set on that turn for a PSB? If villain will improperly draw to a boat whenever you hit on the turn then I think calling is better than shoving.

If you think villain will call a PSB when you hit the turn then you need to bet more on the flop. You need to bet enough so that if you get check raised like this you can call and make a pot sized shove on the turn.

For example if you bet $13ish on the flop and villain raises to $35ish then you can call getting almost 3:1 and shove the turn whenever you hit.

If you think villain will lay down a set when the draws come in then shoving seems better than calling because you're call loses implied odds.

[threads13]

If we all agree, which we should, that we have a draw worth about at least 11 then we have the immediate odds to make a call break even. That is that. If we have more outs than that our call alone is +EV no matter what we do on the turn. If we assume we will make money in the long run when we hit one of our outs then we are getting implied odds on the call. The call is a fine play.

For all of you saying that if we call the flop we have to go to the river - are you crazy?

Say we miss the turn... we are calling any and all bets indiscriminately? No! That's stupid. Think about the odds.

Erudito,
I thought it was obvious that we are calling if we hit a GS or flush since we are ahead more often than not against his range. There are very few cards that help us and help him. They certainly do dampen our implied odds, but we are getting nearly break even odds as it is.

I will work out an EV calc to figure out what the answer really is. I don't think it is probably a definite thing in either direction, but I think it deserves some thought.

[threads13]

Here you go... take a look and see if you find any errors for me to fix. I am making some assumptions, as always.

Here is the range I using for our villain:

JJ-77,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,7 6o

I think this is pretty fair and we have 45% equity at this point. If we push here and get a call we are laying about 1.6:1(114.25:71.25) odds here. This means we only have to good 38% of the time we win to break even. Since we are good 45% of the time pushing is absolutely +EV.

I am going to do some calcuations on some pretty base scenarios to get an idea.

The EV of pushing if we get call 100% of time:

(0.45) * ($114.25) + (0.55) * (-$71.25) = 51.41 - 39.19 = $12.22 EV


Ok, so if raising is correct then folding is wrong. Let's take a look at calling.


If we assume we will get his stack 100% of the time that we turn a straight or a flush:

12 ways to make either hand = 2.9:1 = 26%

(0.26) * ($114.25) - (0.74) * (-$14) = 29.71 - 10.36 = $19.35 EV

For fun, let's see what it looks like with an 11 out draw:

11 outs = 3.3:1 = 23%

(0.23) * ($114.25) - (0.77) * (-$14) = 26.28 - 10.78 = $15.50 EV

The two key assumptions are that he will never fold and always stack off if he we. However, neither of those numbers should be too far from the truth. I don't expect this guy to fold much at all. but if he does fold some of those hands it adds to our EV. Also, the range I put him on has trouble letting go of his hand on the turn so I think he will be stacking off a lot, but if he doesn't get stacked off when we hit our big hands. He might even rarely check the turn and we get a free card. The effective stacks will be about $71 in a $57 stack. So, it is likely we are playing for stacks at this point.

[Johnes Benjamin]

Fist off, this is a kickass thread. Hats off to threads13 esp.
I think posting stopped, so I hope not everyone is done. Couple thoughts.

I recently got pstove and am not good with it; is there a way to adjust likelihood with ranges, ie 87o half as likely as JJ?
Anyway, i think 970, 87o,etc might be pushing it for most people. Also, 66 seems more likely than these.

I don't think we are always stacking him if we turn it so, or if he checks and we river it, so EV is inflated, but we should get some money and with the direct odds to call flop call works.
If he has JT or JJ and we get it in when T hits turn we are freerolling to flush.
crap, gotta go, uhhh, is pushing still best?

[effang]

we stack him on the turn, not on the river. pretty sure on the river if we catch and shove, unless there was no betting on the turn, somebody can find a fold. if we catch on turn and we bet strong, we stack him because he has outs and won't put you on a draw.

[Ryanj37]

Some really good discussion here. Does anyone care about results?

[jimmytrick]

[ QUOTE ]
Some really good discussion here. Does anyone care about results?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if his holding is outside the expected range. Thats always worth a nitchuckle. Cause ranges seldom are wide enough to include donk bets and air.

[Erudito]

Results please. I just want to know if my first range I proposed without any sets are correct. I am 95% sure that SB doesn't have a set. Call it a gut feeling. Show me the results to prove me wrong, that is, I should have included the sets in the range.