Hand vs Colson10 in 2500 6h - Page 4

adanthar · #31 06-19-2007, 05:15 AM

yeah, see, I heard about this hand firsthand but didn't read the post. whoops.

okay, if colson knows who you are, that does change it up because you are now on team 'autofold AK' and that means he can technically pull off the OSU valuebluff of doom. if he does that he truly is the world champion of pokar. in the meantime, though, you can look into his soul live so you can figure out whether it's really the nuts or a super awesome combo play or something without relying on us too much.

however I'm still on team fold by default.

THEOSU · #32 06-19-2007, 05:20 AM

bond,

i assume colson doubled through you in the other hand you posted? if so, i think this is a fold from you, because he may expect a tilty call with AK, and if he can beat AK he can beat A4 (unless, of course, he has the aforementioned but relatively unlikely 46).

the more i think about this, the more foldy it is. and if he pulled off what i hypothesized he did, you just have to tip your cap for a great play.

adanthar,

when i posted that i didn't mean that we should call because of that. but the more i thought about the situation, the more likely that play became. maybe it's just because i'm taking hte occasional shot at a higher limit than "narf, i have second pair, i'll call two big bets on the turn"

Ansky · #33 06-19-2007, 05:28 AM

Why is Colson simultaneously bluffing bond and valuetowning button so ridiculous? It doesnt seem all that hysterically amazing, just like a clever play which I would be very surprised if it did not cross Carl's mind.

T_Mac · #34 06-19-2007, 05:39 AM

I'd call but I wouldn't be too happy about it. Great spot to semi bluff unless button is really that stationish, which I find hard to believe.

renodoc · #35 06-19-2007, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he does that he truly is the world champion of pokar. in the meantime, though, you can look into his soul live so you can figure out whether it's really the nuts or a super awesome combo play or something without relying on us too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, Carl hides his soul well. No peekie in.

NoahSD · #36 06-19-2007, 12:28 PM

If his preflop range is the same as mine here, this is a fold [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Edit: To clarify, this is because I can't really have many draws here, and I can't have a smaller two pair, but I can def have a set.

FGators · #37 06-19-2007, 01:57 PM

Button in this hand could easily be drawing to one of the two flush draws or has a lone ace himself. The fact of all the combo draws and the fact that Colson believes he has some FE here (From bond) makes this a pretty quick call.

I believe Colson thinks you'd fold an ace here given the button looming, which looks like your most likely holding since you raised UTG+1 and hes probably not thinking A4 (plus you'd lead a set or KK/AA in a multiway pot here like always).

Its really a call.

FGators · #38 06-19-2007, 01:59 PM

Why wouldn't colson gladly push in 46 here? Hero raised UTG+1, to me it looks like he has AJ or AK and Colson is confidently going to valuetown with his shove.

He's not worried about sets or AA/KK.

willie · #39 06-19-2007, 02:52 PM

i'm leaning towards a fold only barely...

there is the distinct possiblity that he has Asomething [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] though- if you look at his stack size i don't think he could have bet/3bet AI w/ any FE on the flop w/ ax hh, so he might have been looking to check/jam.

def tough spot though.

0evg0 · #40 06-19-2007, 03:05 PM

Good post OSU, and I have no idea why Adanthar is dismissing it.

I'd say the majority of the people we consider top posters here would at least have the thought cross their mind -- difference being most wouldn't actually follow through with it. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Colson bluffing Bond (with outs), while value-raising the Button.

That being said, I think your range for Colson is too narrow. If he's doing this with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], then he's probably doing it with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], etc.

Stacks are so shallow that if Bond like ever folds a better hand, it's pretty massively +EV considering he's never worse than like 50/50 vs Button incl pot odds, and will even be ahead on occassion.