Botting the WNBA Season...

[irisheyes]

Very nice work MrBlue! I was on Indiana, SA, and New York last night (2 for 3). Looking forward to tomorrow's action. I can even watch one of the three on ESPN2. A couple more wins and I'll have to get NBA TV just to sweat them.

[TomG]

I swear there is nothing more frustrating that sweating WNBA games... esp if you are betting on the over, lol.

[MrBlueNose]

Never ever sweat any CFL games then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I decided to have a try at it and started with Toronto/BC last week and.....man, I felt like I was betting a single number on roulette.

[MrBlueNose]

Yestersdays results:


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Indiana +1 Win.
San Antonio +7 Win.
Minnesota +7 Loss.
New York +6.5 Loss.


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YTD: 27-17. (61.4%)

No games today. 3 games tomorrow....it likes:

Los Angeles +11
San Antonio +2
Minnesota +2

Also likes the under in Washington game and Over in Seattle game(by 3 points in either game), and over in Minnesota/Phoenix by 9.

It fancies San Antonio to win outright 67.5% of the time. If I was to recommend a pick based on the stats, it would be San Antonio outright.

[MrBlueNose]

I've been playing around with this a bit more on the analysis front - basically factoring in the sportsbook line, and then providing data on who will cover. I'm getting some interesting(and different) results than what I've been getting - for example under the old system it said Los Angeles would only lose by 6 points, while under the new system it actually says Seattle cover 48% of the time, Los Angeles 46% of the time, and a push 6% of the time. Based on this, I'm going to start posting(and tracking publicly) two predictions - the ones under the old system, and the ones under the new system. New system bets I will only post when it likes a team to cover by 60% or more(I may change that % in the future) Anyway...based on that, the new system says the only clear bet for tonight is San Antonio +2, and expected to cover 72% of the time.

[jelly]

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Also likes the under in Washington game and Over in Seattle game(by 3 points in either game), and over in Minnesota/Phoenix by 9.


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Can you please give us the lines tied to this statement?

[MrBlueNose]

Yep sorry about that, Washington/San Antonio 146.5, Seattle/Los Angeles 154.5, Minnesota/Phoenix 168.

[Aicirt]

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Anyway...based on that, the new system says the only clear bet for tonight is San Antonio +2, and expected to cover 72% of the time.

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San Antonio is listed at +3.5 at Bodog.

I decided to play around with a WNBA bot myself. It is still very early and I have several things that I need to get done before Ill be able to devote too much time to it, but when I get it done Ill start tracking my picks as well.

[freck]

I took SA on your advice MBN, thanks!

[MrBlueNose]

Yesterday saw us go 1-2, although the new system got the only pick of the day correct, which was San Antonio. I'm going to be listing the old system and the new system when I post - while it's clearly way too early to say anything, if you aren't adventurous but still want to bet, I'd go with any new system picks.

Tomorrow we have Los Angeles +6, at home to Indiana, with the O/U of 144.5

Old System: Predicted scorline is Indiana to win by 3, so Los Angeles would be the pick. Also predicts total of 151, so Over.

New system in the other hand predicts Los Angeles to cover 54% of the time, which is not enough to warrant a bet, thus no new system pick for this game.

Also on a semi-related note; I've started work on a soccer one as well, as I know soccer(being Scottish) much more than any other sport, which should give me an advantage. Plus with soccer all year round, if I can get a good system going it means year round sports betting for moi [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] These picks are all based on the new system. I don't think it warrants a new thread so I'll include any picks in here. FYI it went live before tonights games, and the only clear pick was Dallas to beat Chivas....which they did, 2-0. I also have it simulating and outputting the percentages of each possible result, which will help when I'm looking for value. I'm going to do some work tomorrow so that it will let me know when a line is valuable.

Speaking of - any recommendations on a sportsbook where I can bet the money line on MLS? Pinny just does the spread. Currently using Betfair, but rarely can do big money on that.

YTD:

WNBA:

Old System: 28-19 (59.6%)
New System: 1-0 (100%)

MLS: 1-0 (100%)