Party Poker, 50NL, and the state of things

[danny8]

party is pretty soft.. but not really much softer than other sites. My winrates higher on FTP than party - so im back on FTP for now [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Sngs are a lot different to cash games. They are a whole new level of variance and tho they are a good example of "best hand doesn't always win", you cant really justify a 20bi cash game downswing by comparing it to losing 40 sng flips.

edit: because in cash games, we play 5 streets and not 1 OH SNAP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Sngs are a lot different to cash games. They are a whole new level of variance and tho they are a good example of "best hand doesn't always win", you cant really justify a 20bi cash game downswing by comparing it to losing 40 sng flips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you can ... 40BI swings are not common in sngs, they are more or less the equivalent of a 20BI swing in cash. One of those once in a blue moon occurances, but that doesn't mean they do not happen.

The same with your reasonings Ama, while I agree with this post on the state of party etc., saying that a downswing can't occur is not true.

While it is highly unlikely, it can occur ... high pocket pairs vs. higher pocket pairs, set over set, flushes losing to sets filling up and sets losing to flushes ... all the marginal stuff.

Once in a while, some unlucky poor bastard is going to experience a cooler that ends all coolers and there isn't a thing he can do about it.

[Triggerle]

If you look at the maths and include the sample size (sessions played by all the people in this forum collectively) then it isn't even highly unlikely that a few players end up with a massive bunching of those streaks.

[ama0330]

Are you really interpreting my post as "downswings are impossible"? Honestly

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really interpreting my post as "downswings are impossible"? Honestly

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But you are so [censored] deluded if you think you can have a 10bi+ ds at 50nl and play every hand perfect. NO WAY.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds like it, doesn't it?

[Triggerle]

How about this one

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody who is a winning player below NL25 should ever, ever be going on a 17bi ds and I don't give a [censored] if you have some fancy mathematical model to prove its possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have lost 40 flips in a row ... most of them in my favor ... while playing sngs.


[censored] just does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you know what the odds of losing 40 coinflips in a row are?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and it still happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
So what are they?

[Shizzle12345]

iv been through one, and if you come out, you feel like your gonna run hot for 2months. Im on a sick heater now too. I play good and run good.