Take the early edge ?

[WCGRider]

im somewhat of a regular @ the 4/180's and ive got a couple quick things to say.

First off, as noob as this is, if i get like a JJ through AA in the first hand of a tourney, i go straight all in. Why would I do such a noob thing? Because its the first hand of a tourney and there are plenty of people who think i am donking off my chipstack. I get called with all sorts of junk, and have a great shot at doubling up early in the tournament. I like the value on that a lot more then playing out the hand (In my opinion anyway.)

On topic, i do not know if i like the call here. Im still fairly new to the math BUT, in an optimal scenario (Two underpairs) we have a decent shot here to triple up, at roughly 2:1, which would be always be great to take. However, I really really feel that the initial raise all in is almost never some low pair. If its a Donk, its ATC but its not to hard to be over 88, and if its someone like me, then your running horrible.

(All rough estimates, of course the suit of the cards has an effect but these are generalizations)

vs 2 Underpairs : 66%
vs 1 under pair/1 over pair : 18%
vs 2 Overpairs : 15%
vs 1 Underpair/ 2 Overcards : 45%
vs 2 Overcards (They steal each others outs) : 63%
vs 3 Overcards (1 card in common) : 44%
vs 4 Overcards : 33%

So there are definitely scenarios where getting it in will leave you as a favorite to triple up. HOWEVER, its the first hand of the tournament, you don't know if they are seriously just donknig here or are pulling a type of strategy to get callers. And basically, if your vs an over pair, your completely [censored]. I think your most likely vs some type of pair from the limper (Really, im not eliminating any pair, these players will limp all kinds of stuff and hope for a raise behind them.) And probably some overcards from the raiser.

To be honest, i came into this post very against calling but after thinking it over, i think its more borderline. However, if there is any type of frequency of being vs an over pair, this is definitely not worth it, and I think that this is within their ranges.

(And this is probably my first real content post so, if i am completely off base here feel free to say so : p)

[Mingdu]

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There is no question that this is a call. It is not even remotely close.

Hand 0: 30.185%
Hand 1: 29.722%
Hand 2: 40.093%

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OK ... that's the range (even though I think it is much tighter than this)... good

Is being in 4 tourneys with triple stacks and 6 with starting stacks at $70.40 worth more than 10 with starting stacks at $44?

I'm sure the math has been done somewhere. I'll find it ... there has to be something that tells us how much equity a chip is worth at different stack sizes.

[Sherman]

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BTW - Another argument for getting it in here is that Time has value. I am in a hurry so I can't explain it all right now, but just think about how Time has value and hopefully you get it before I get back.

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I don't know about you, but this statement jumped out at me. It is worth your time, IMHO, to take those slim edges, even if they are slightly negative edges, because the utility of starting a tournament with 3 times the starting stack for one buyin is huge for some players. It comes down as a matter of preference, I suppose.

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I'm not sure what you were interpreting my statement to mean Fortuna. But I am back now, so I can clarify.

In every tournament we have to invest not only $ but time. Winning tournaments takes more time than losing tournaments (although losing usually costs more $). We usually calculate ROI based on $ won and $ invested. However, we often ignore the fact that time has also been invested.

Anyhow, what I am suggesting is that your "Time" is better spent in a tournament with 3 times the starting stack than 3 tournaments with the same size starting stack. For the purposes of this example I am ignoring multi-tabling capabilities, but the principle still applies.

To be more direct, your concern should be $/Hour. NOT ROI as traditionally computed. The play that is the most $/Hour is to call here.

Of course, this is only true so long as there is another tournament where you can invest your time. If there isn't, then these statements aren't true. Fortunately, in today's online world of poker, there is always another tournament. Which also means that Time is more valuable than it used to be.

[WCGRider]

Ok couple more quick calculations. Based on the numbers, if you plays 10 tournies (44$) Then you will be eliminated in all but 4 of them (17.6$). In order to achieve an equal ev, the results of the following 4 tournaments must outweigh the original buyin. Thus 44/17.6, each tournament you have to win back 2.5 times the original buy in to make this decision correct.

The question is, do you think you are actually getting the odds to cash 2.5 times better then the prior stack. In my personal opinion (and i wish there were some more talented people on this, i can only do basic stuff.) I do not think you have that type of equity off this triple up. And that is just to remain even, not forgetting that if you are a good player and this is close, you don't want to take such small edges when you can win in the long term.

Oh and also, having played many of these, you usually need about 20K to safely make it into the final table from when the bubble breaks, and 10K to 15K sometimes depending on the opponents.

[Cornell Fiji]

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(And this is probably my first real content post so, if i am completely off base here feel free to say so : p)

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It is clear from your post that you are a smart guy and that with a little bit of studying you will be a profitable player.

When I used to play small stakes I would also always open shove JJ+ in the first orbit and especially on the first hand. Just because there are a select few players who will shove with JJ+ does not mean that the majority of players are making this play and it does not mean that these hands should be discounted from their range. If the villain in this hand was me my range would be 100% JJ+, against the average unknown villain their range is the top 40% of hands.

It is good that you are thinking mathematically about the different combinations that you might be against. I suggest that you download pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com) and play around with the software. It is a free program that allows you to input hand ranges and see how your hand fares against said ranges. A key error that new players and Phil Hellemuth make is putting their opponent on 'a hand' players never have 'two overs' but rather they have 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o ...

You do not want to think about how you fare in each scenario but rather how you fare against the amalgamation of all of the possibiliies.

Additionally, you want to train yourself to exploit the smallest of edges in a tournament. You can't win a tournament without getting all of the chips and sometimes that means you have to dodge some overcards. If I thought that I had 34.5%+ equity in a threeway pot I am instacalling and when I take into account the opportunity cost of time I am probably also calling if I have a 33% chance of winning the hand.

[Cornell Fiji]

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Ok couple more quick calculations. Based on the numbers, if you plays 10 tournies (44$) Then you will be eliminated in all but 4 of them (17.6$). In order to achieve an equal ev, the results of the following 4 tournaments must outweigh the original buyin. Thus 44/17.6, each tournament you have to win back 2.5 times the original buy in to make this decision correct.

The question is, do you think you are actually getting the odds to cash 2.5 times better then the prior stack. In my personal opinion (and i wish there were some more talented people on this, i can only do basic stuff.) I do not think you have that type of equity off this triple up. And that is just to remain even, not forgetting that if you are a good player and this is close, you don't want to take such small edges when you can win in the long term.

Oh and also, having played many of these, you usually need about 20K to safely make it into the final table from when the bubble breaks, and 10K to 15K sometimes depending on the opponents.

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I addressed this in my previous reply to you but I want to be clear. In the begining of a tournament cEV (chip expected value) is pretty much equal to $ev. If you think you have the slightest of chip edges then taking it will be +$ev. The only times that cEV does not directly approximate $EV is when you are on the bubble and when you are in the portion of the tournament (usually final table) where you make more money every time that someone gets eliminated.

This is been proven previously on the forum. I do not know where those posts are but you should accept it as a truth: Do not pass up +cEV advantages to protect your tournament life. Your biggest edge in tournaments comes from exploiting those people who overvalue their tournament life.

[WCGRider]

Thanks, I actually have pokerstove and i use it to calculate out specific scenarios as well, but the primary problem that i have with using it here is that I have almost no idea what my opponents range is, as it is really opponent dependent, maybe i will start compiling all the first hands i see people go all in and maybe it is much more close to what you think then what I think.

Edit: Nevermind, you answered it while i was typing. : D

[Cornell Fiji]

Here you go:

If I remember correctly (and its been a while) the Raymer posts were gold. -- edit; I just checked the thread, I did not remember correctly, the thread with raymer, phillips, and sklansky is pretty weak - I think the woodguy thread is pretty good though iirc

Che Argues That Survival During the Early Stages is Not an End in Itself

Woodguy Isn't Good Enough to Pass Up Small Edges Early (And Neither Are You)

How Much of an Edge Would the Best Players Fold Early? (Includes comments by Paul Phillips and Greg Raymer)

Mason's Question About Chip Value and Doubling Up Early (special attention to "The Wotmog Theory" post by ericicecream

[WCGRider]

On a random note, just doubled up in the first hand of a 180 with 88 vs JTo, no joke.

[Mingdu]

haha

did the board have any 5s or 6s in it?