Can I get away from this...2/4 PL deep - Page 4

Big Dave D · #31 06-01-2007, 03:12 PM

http://www.cardplayer.com/cpeurope/article/16015

RoundTower · #32 06-01-2007, 11:09 PM

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i think this is a lot closer than most people seem to. i think it is a tough spot and am not sure what my opinion on it is. i think that despite the fact that we have so many of the cards that our opponent would need we are going to see a higher set here fairly often. two pair is possible but i think if we dont see a set we are most likely up against a wrap. i think im leaning towards a fold but it is very close.

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I agree this is pretty close, I don't think I would raise here unless I was planning to call a push though. I would fold 5544 against the guy as described.

Haagen · #33 06-02-2007, 12:31 AM

you're winning now, my guess is he has a draw something like KJA9 somewhere in that range. the liklihood he has the last 2 Ts or Qs in the deck is slim. Here I'm thinking it's going to be a 60/40 type situation

jomatty · #34 06-02-2007, 08:14 AM

i just dont think you can say that the chance of him having the last 10s or Qs is slim. sure the chance of someone having them is very slim if you are looking strictly at the odds of him holding those particlular key cards. however, with every bet that goes into the pot it becomes much more likely and i think we are at the point where the chance of him having a set is siginificantly more than slim.

dave, i agree and the point i was going for with my original post is that if we are lucky enough to be ahead it is against a wrap which is close and if we are behind we are crushed. very similar to the classic hold em scenario that generally makes it incorrect to move all in preflop with 22 even if we are ahead the majority of the time.

matty

Troll_Inc · #35 06-02-2007, 08:20 AM

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i think this is a lot closer than most people seem to. i think it is a tough spot and am not sure what my opinion on it is. i think that despite the fact that we have so many of the cards that our opponent would need we are going to see a higher set here fairly often. two pair is possible but i think if we dont see a set we are most likely up against a wrap. i think im leaning towards a fold but it is very close.

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I agree this is pretty close, I don't think I would raise here unless I was planning to call a push though. I would fold 5544 against the guy as described.

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FWIW, the single Queen gives you about 3-4% equity.

Losing that queen then makes this a coinflip against what I feel is the best case scenario of an donating-type aggro LAG.

RoundTower · #36 06-02-2007, 08:41 AM

I don't understand, 3-4% equity against what? Exactly TTxx? If he has QQQ the Q provides us with like .1% extra equity (because flop and river can't come 5,Q), if he has AKJx then the Q reduces our equity because our redraw is worse if he hits.

Troll_Inc · #37 06-02-2007, 09:23 AM

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I don't understand, 3-4% equity against what? Exactly TTxx? If he has QQQ the Q provides us with like .1% extra equity (because flop and river can't come 5,Q), if he has AKJx then the Q reduces our equity because our redraw is worse if he hits.

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Comparing these two hands from the OP.

QT55 vs 5544.

Basically what the result is (all in flop push) if your opponent has fewer ways that their range includes QQxx.

RoundTower · #38 06-03-2007, 04:54 AM

what did you make his range, how did you end up with 3 to 4%? Just a guess?

Troll_Inc · #39 06-03-2007, 11:09 AM

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what did you make his range, how did you end up with 3 to 4%? Just a guess?

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Just changed the hand ranges when you have Q55* vs 4455 against what I think the villain would be holding:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...tionEditor.jsp

Kala1928 · #40 06-03-2007, 09:05 PM

Its omaha man, he has QQQ or TTT like always. You are ~flipping if he has a huge draw and you have two or your boat outs dead.
If this
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If someone stands up against him on the flop he usually slowes down.

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is your only read folding the flop wouldnt be totally awful. But you should really have an idea what he is betting the flop with and what sort of hands he will reraise you with on the flop because raising with your bottom set to either
a) stack off always without a good idea what he has or
b) raising to fold if he reraises
is not a good idea, you should have a good idea what you're going to do if you get reraised *once you raise*. I'm leaning towards just calling or raising and then folding if you get shoved on.