The Well: youtalkfunny

[youtalkfunny]

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Any good video poker stories? Did you ever play semi-pro? What were the weakest machines you ever played? Biggest jackpots? Any nutty people you interact with?

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You must have me confused with someone else. I have no +EV experience with video poker (and almost no -EV or 0EV experience, either).

[youtalkfunny]

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I'm not sure if you've covered this already...if so, apologies.

Why do you think the offshore outfit that you worked at go out of business? Was it poor bookmaking, poor business structure, too few customers, too sharp customers, or something else?

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It was a combination of factors. There's a difference of opinion as to which factored in the most, but in no particular order:

--We had all sharps, and almost no squares. I wish we were running ads in Maxim magazine and USA Today, but we weren't. The only hype we were getting was at places like majorwager.com and theprescription.com, not exactly Squaresville.

--Almost every player who signed up did so for the 20-30% sign-up bonus. As soon as they met the WR, they were gone, on to the next site to offer a sign-up bonus. They had no interest in our 10% reload bonus, when every site in the world was offering a 20-30% sign-up bonus.

--Whenever I suggested we boot a player who was beating our brains in, my suggestion was dismissed. The bosses' attitude seemed to be, "As long as he's laying -110, we'll get him in the end."

In retrospect, it's possible that the bosses were thinking that if we booted the sharps, there would be no customers left. We're out of business if we have no customers, so we might as well take our chances against the customers we do have.

[youtalkfunny]

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As a clerk in a sportsbook, you have all access to customers betting accounts. Soon you'll realize who the sharps are, I guess there might even be a software filtering them for betting behavior.

Would you ever try to learn from their betting patterns, even try to follow their picks themselves at other books?


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In Las Vegas, no. There was no rhyme or reason to anyone's selections, unless there was a scalp involved. Except for The Man in the Red Shirt.

The Man in the Red Shirt would come in every day during baseball season. He'd bet the Yankees to win $100, the Braves to win $100, and he'd ask for a buffet comp. He wore the same, stinky red shirt all summer long.

Offshore, I got to learn about chasing steam. Billy Walters would put out an order for Rockets -4, and the Don Best screen would light up, as every book in the world moved to -5. Our phones would start ringing, and I knew that every caller at that particular moment was fighting to be the first to get our -4 before we moved it. Others would take the Rockets no matter what the line was, because they wanted to be on the same side of a game as BW, regardless of price.

(If you don't know who Billy Walters is, let's just say that he's the greatest sports bettor ever. Founder of The Computer Group. No bookie will take his action, so he has to hire "beards" to place his bets for him. He moves so much money on a game, that he has to coordinate his attacks; in the example I give, all his beards have to bet the Rockets at once, in order to get the best number. His plays generate "steam". All the -4's that he didn't hit, others rush to get. After the steam come The Followers, who will continue to bet the Rockets, even if we've already moved it to -5 or -5½.)

[youtalkfunny]

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I wonder how easy internet bookies detects scalpers and if they do, are those booted/getting limits reduced severely on the spot?

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Sure it's easy to detect them. When they lay -125 on a baseball game, and this prompts me to check the screen and notice that the game in question has risen to -140 everywhere else, it's obvious he's scalping.

Boot him? I can't blame him for accepting a bet that I've offered. I'm the dope who put -125 on the board. How can I get mad at someone who says, "I'll lay the -125."? If I didn't want him to do that, I shouldn't have offered the bet to my customers.

The only exception is when it's steam. Like I said, every book in the world is hit at once with action on one team, and the race is on. Bettors are trying to lay that -125 before I can react to the steam, and move the number "on air" (moving a line before taking any bets).

There are people in this world who pay the $650/mo (or whatever it is nowadays) to subscribe to Don Best's premium, up-to-the-second line info, just to watch it like a hawk, and try to pick off steam numbers at books that are slow to react. They see the game going from -125 to -140, and they're on my website, clicking away, hoping that I'm playing Minesweeper at that particular moment of the day, and that they will be able to lay -125 faster than I can react and move the game to -140.

If I get a player who is consistantly "beating me to the number" this way, I might have to revoke his internet privileges, and tell him that all of his bets with us have to made via telephone.

If that happens, here's how it plays out:

CLERK: YTF Sports, account number and password please.

BETTOR: Account 12345, password PENGUIN

CLERK: (clerk types this info into her computer, a huge window pops up that says, "Notify Supervisor"; she covers phone and calls to me) 12345! (she then says into the phone) Your balance is $2247, how can I help you?

ME: Uh oh, it's the pick-off artist! Let's see what he's trying to pick off this time...Yup, sure enough, the Twins are up to -140, and we've got them at -125....

BETTOR: What's the line on Game 918?

CLERK: (covers phone, calls to me) He wants the line on Game 918, Minnesota Twins. (while she's waiting for further instructions, she punches in 918, and sees that it's -125)

ME: (I'm already in the process of moving the number) Wow, imagine that. Refresh your screen.

CLERK: (hits the refresh button, line is now Twins -140) Sir, Game 918, Minnesota Twins is currently -140.

BETTOR: WHAT??? I'm looking at your website, it's telling me -125!!!

CLERK: (to me) He says it's -125 on the website.

ME: Tell him to refresh his screen.

CLERK: (tells him)

BETTOR: (frustrated) Grrr, never mind. (hangs up)

I didn't boot him. I didn't cut his limits. He can bet all he wants, when he's not picking me off.

[TomG]

What are your thoughts on the prospect of licensed and regulated bookmaking (either online or B&M) existing in the United States outside of Nevada? Will it ever happen? Why or why not?

[AvivaSimplex]

Did you ever consider putting in more automated ways of moving your lines in reaction to steam? It seems like just sitting there and watching Don Best is a very inefficient way of avoiding the steam bets. You could at least set something up to alert you if >4 other books move their lines within 2 minutes. Just curious about the level of computer sophistication at the offshore book.

[rush66]

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Did you ever consider putting in more automated ways of moving your lines in reaction to steam? It seems like just sitting there and watching Don Best is a very inefficient way of avoiding the steam bets. You could at least set something up to alert you if >4 other books move their lines within 2 minutes. Just curious about the level of computer sophistication at the offshore book.

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YTF,

I was also wondering about this. I read a story of yours, maybe a year or so ago when you talked about a group of guys just sitting around and making up lies. I often sit and wonder to myself, "how the hell are the linesmakers so good." I hear people say that it is all computers that are creating a raiders +8 line nowadays. How true is this? Or are people still responsible for the majority of lines?

[zgall1]

Though I do not bet on sports, this is a great thread. Thanks.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you ever consider putting in more automated ways of moving your lines in reaction to steam? It seems like just sitting there and watching Don Best is a very inefficient way of avoiding the steam bets. You could at least set something up to alert you if >4 other books move their lines within 2 minutes. Just curious about the level of computer sophistication at the offshore book.

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Whenever a line, any line, moves on the Don Best screen, the computer lets out a loud "DING!", and the line in question is highlighted in black.

When you hear "DINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDING", and see a horizontal line of black (meaning that one game has moved at every book in the last second or two--remember DB gives up-to-the-SECOND updates), that's as automated as we can make it.

The steam chasers hear the same DING's that we heard, and the race is on--can we change the number before we get picked off? Usually, yes. If somebody beats us, we have to eat it. If somebody is continually beating us, then we have to tell him to phone in his bets.

And if I'm on the toilet, and I hear "DINGDINGDINGDINGDINGDING"?

Not good times. Bad times.

[youtalkfunny]

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What are your thoughts on the prospect of licensed and regulated bookmaking (either online or B&M) existing in the United States outside of Nevada? Will it ever happen? Why or why not?

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Not, because of the Bradley Act of 1992.

Senator (and former NY Knick) Bill Bradley got the Bradley act passed, a federal law that outlaws sports betting.

Nevada's sports betting industry got grandfathered in, as well as the three other states where sports betting was already legal: MT, DE, and OR all have used sports betting in their state lotteries, and still reserve the right to do so.

DE is currently debating a bill in their state legislature to bring it back, as their "racinos" (slot machines at the racetrack) took a big hit when MD and PA added slots to their racetracks recently.

If any of those three states get sports betting, it will only be a pari-mutuel parlay card, like they have in Canada. You'll never find a +EV bet.

NJ has been toying with the idea of challenging the constitutionality of The Bradley Act, making "states' rights" an issue. Of course, the NFL and NBA have franchises in NJ, and their anti-gambling lobby carries a LOT of weight. Because of this, I don't think NJ has ever been serious about such a challenge of federal law.

NV has not given up hope of being allowed to take sports bets online from US residents outside NV. It's completely illegal now, but they think that may change in the future ("Why should we make people send their money to some shady character offshore? Shouldn't they be able to send it to a trusted, American name like CaesarsPalace.com? WE CAN TAX IT THAT WAY.")