fold AA to scary board against push? (not interested in PF)

[woohoo88]

I'm not trying to insult. I suppose it could come off sounding harsh and I can see your point about it being addressed enough times. Even so I just wanted to point out, in a different way, just what is happening here.

Either way I appoligize if I offended.

[wackybrak]

you're raising for value preflop and to determine his range. by only minraising, you're getting less value from your aces and also letting in a lot more hands that can hurt you with a straight/flush board like that.

basically, raise more preflop, pot the flop.

[SkyyCaptain]

Okay assuming HE's NOT slowplaying then its a call and an easy one.

You're up against a lot of hands that could slow play you for value so I don't know that you really want to assume here but if he's not the type to slow play then you push and 1/5 times you're hurting when he lands but the other 4/5 you're ahead by a big stack..

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the phrase "Don't go broke with a one-pair hand?"

[/ QUOTE ]This does not apply with these stack sizes against a PF raiser.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People aren't giving you good answers because people never get themselves into this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never? I find that hard to believe.

Isn't the point with AA preflop to get as much money into the pot as possible against exactly one opponent? Isn't that what you want? If the goal is only to win immediately when you have AA, then you'd just auto-push every time you saw it.

You can make a distinction between raising to 500 or raising to 800 or 900 here, but I don't think that really changes much. The bigger the pot gets in relation to my stack, the less I'm going to be able to get away. (What about the phrase "Don't go broke with a one-pair hand?")

Anyway, on the turn I had discounted a set of Ks, because he didn't reraise me preflop. I also determined a made flush or straight was unlikely because he would have check-raised me there. (He's got to think I'm gonna bet the K if I have AA, KK or AK.)

So he's probably got a pair and a million outs, but there's only one card to come and I'm still getting 2 to 1. Also, if I fold I'm down to 2300 chips with blinds at 100-200 and coming up in a couple hands.

Thoughts on that turn analysis?

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem like you really want to learn so I will put in one more reply for you on this topic. Keep in mind that a lot of people responding to your thread have absolutely no personal gain from taking the time out to reply to this thread because the correct action is so clear to them. I am one of those people but I will try to help you anyway.

No. I do not recal ever being in this situation. Not only were your pf actions clearly wrong but your rationale for those actions were fundementally incorrect.

The goal with AA is NOT to get as much money in as possible against exactly one opponent. Think about this mathmatically? What has a higher expected value for you: Getting the money in against one player with the best starting hand or getting the money in against several players? If it is not clear to you that you want 9 all in callers every time that you have AA then you should probably visit the probability forum for a crash course.

The people telling you to raise more preflop are not saying that you should do so to protect your hand, rather they are telling you to make a real reraise for value. Defining the villain's hand is a secondary goal here. While it is nice, it is more important to get his stack NOW.

UTG raisers are generally very strong. If he has JJ+/AK he will probably shove if you make a real preflop raise. You are not maximizing value against these hands when you let him see a scary flop. Also your stupid minraise will have aroused suspicions and he might only call with JJ/QQ for fear that you are making some crazy play with aces.

You do not raise more preflop to get away from your hand. You raise more preflop to make sure that all of the chips get into the middle.

"Don't go broke with a one pair hand" is bad advice. The advice that you should learn to accept is "If you think you are +ev against the range of possible hands that the villain might have, then get the chips in the middle"

On this flop you really want to be betting 900-1150 but that might be really suspicious after your gross pf minreraise

On the turn the villain could have 99/QQ/AdKs/KQ/QJ or a set. He should not have called your flop bet with AQ but we can not discount it completely because you priced him in as a result of your poor pf raise. He also should not have suited connectors or AX suited (unless it is AdQd) since he raised UTG but if he chose to raise UTG with 89/JT/QJ then he certaintly was not folding after your poor pf reraise.

I have already spent way too much effort on this post.

If you have any serious follow up questions post them here and send me a PM and I may take a look at them if I have the time.

-Steve

I guess this is a call but you played the hand really really bad.

[Coz]

I think I would fold this. I think his range preflop is something like AK, AQ, 1010-KK. I think the hands we are afraid of here are AQ and 1010 and JJ. However, unless he had AQs I think he would have folded to the flop bet, however, with such a strong hand I don't think he would push this on the turn. AK is a possibility as well however, his flop call is pretty weak having missed the board. Since he is such a tight player, I would probably fold this, he could have flopped a set of tens or Jacks and pushed the turn so you would think he was bluffing and representing the flush. I think the next major possibility is QQ, but I don't know what he would put you on to feel comfortable pushing on such a dangerous borad. With getting 2-1 on your money you need to win at least 1/3x and I don't think you are ahead that often. I think a fold is in order here.

[shaundeeb]

congrats OP you are the AEjones who actually sucks at poker

[Xanthro]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (t1150) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t700, UTG calls t700.

Turn: (t2550) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t3235 (All-In), Hero ??.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll try to answer your question as asked, rather than speak as to the pre-flop raise itself.

You min re-raised in order to discuss your hand and appear weak. Now Villan has called and the flop isn't the best. I'd at least bet the pot, but he called.

Now on the turn, if any A or diamond hit, I'd push if I were villan because you seem weak. You've already folded an earlier hand to me re-raise, you played this hand weakly, so I'm going to represent a winning hand on this turn.

Since you played the AA weakly in order to disguise your hand, you have to call.

As others have said, this would have been easier with a bigger pre-flop raise, but as played call, or better, don't min-raise preflop with AA.

[SkyyCaptain]

As a side note the small raise preflop may not do all you want it to. The button and BB have yet to act and are getting fantastic odds if he assumes your villain calls instead of raises.

[jfletcher]

Well, thanks everyone. Like I said, I wanted to look weak preflop because of the previous hand. I figure anyone who is apparently good would have remembered that hand. I wanted him to make a play at me. If he'd have gone OTT preflop, my chips would have beaten his in there.

In a twisted way, my ploy worked. He did see me as weak after the flop bet and he made a play at me on the turn. His push was KQ, including the Qd.

He had a lot of outs, but I was a 2 to 1 favorite with 1 card to come, getting 2 to 1 on the call. My hand held up. I ended up cashing in the tournament.

Still, I wondered if I was good against his range on the turn (hence this post).

In retrospect, I will agree that I could have raised to 900 or so preflop. I think that would ensure no one else called, but villain might also have folded. If he'd called, the pot would have been 2100 after he called and I'd have had 2500 left in my stack, so I'd have probably just pushed the flop.