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#31
04-19-2007, 02:46 AM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
[ QUOTE ]
dont bet the river if you dont know what to do he's way more likely to turn a hand into a bluff than he is to call with it [/ QUOTE ] This is so true in all of my dealing with Gabe. If you call expect to see hands like 87, 86, T9, T8, A LOT. and of course the other part of his range: 54, 89, 
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#32
04-19-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
Bet/call is optimal if he is in aggro mode. Also, hes a super instinctual player so you wont really get timing tells much and the insta doesnt mean much of anything. C/C allows him to play perfectly almost always except he will very occasionally value bet worse, but I dont think he is bluffing this river often and if he is it can easily be a big overbet which puts u in an even worse spot.
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#33
04-19-2007, 02:53 AM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
Hm
I Lean towards folding. A check on the river has a lot of advantages. 1. If he shows you are in the same situation as now but with less money invested and you still stack him if you decide to call correctly. 2. If he bets say the pot you can call and lose less (little more than bet fold of course  )if he shows down the str8 but if it is a bluff you gain another potbet. On the negative side is 1. that that an allin by him on the river if you check may make you fold more easilly, but one misstake from him in this situation is ceratinly not for free. 2. You loose your last bet if he checks behind a hand that he would have flat called your last bet with, but I cannot see that many hands that he would flat call all 3 streets with that you actually beat.
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#34
04-19-2007, 04:42 AM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
I really don't understand this bet-to-induce-a-push move. There is a 4cardstraight on the board, why do you want all the money in? If he bluffshoves this river more than 50% of the time, there has to be easier/lower variance ways to get his money, right...?
The only advantage I see with this line is that it lets you valuebet thinner on the river in the long run.
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#36
04-20-2007, 01:08 PM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
The way he played his hand, I would figure he either flopped the straight with the 89 or is pushing his top pair on the river and knows that a four straight is out there and it will be a tough call for you
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#37
04-20-2007, 01:28 PM
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Re: 1000NL Hand reading vs. G-P
89 seems way more likely than 54. I can't see him slowplayin the lower straight on the turn seeing as how numerous cards counterfeit him.
That being said, I dont know if I could lay this set down. Your hand is well concealed and gp could easily have a two pair hand, pair/draw or combo draw here.
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