40-80 AQ hand

[emerson]

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emerson, Since you deleted your reply, here's my reply:

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Raising here increases variance dramatically, and in that kind of game, I DO NOT need that to maximize my equity. That's my feeling on it, anyway.

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lol

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Dave, I assume you, like everyone, has Holdem Poker for Advance Players. If you have the 21st Centruy addition look at page 161.

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S&M were not thinking about any Foxwoods game when they wrote HEPFAP. I'm pretty sure the games they describe don't exist anymore.

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I"m sorry you read my reply before I deleted it. I deleted it because I saw that others were already directing you to the same page numbers in the same book that I was.

Advice once reserved for lower stakes holdem games now seems to apply to 20/40 and even many 40/80 games. The games have gotten that loose. As soon as I read the first post in the thread I almost felt like it was a set up example from a book.

I'll respond to one of your other responses at the same time here. You mention that the person with 5 outs will call anyway. It is not just whether they will call, but whether it will be profitable for them to call and how profitable it will be. Also look at those with 4 outs, or 3.5 outs. AQ has a particular interest in getting those hands to fold on the flop that hold a King and some sort of backdoor draw. You want that guy to either fold or make an negative ev call.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
emerson, Since you deleted your reply, here's my reply:

[ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]
Raising here increases variance dramatically, and in that kind of game, I DO NOT need that to maximize my equity. That's my feeling on it, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Dave, I assume you, like everyone, has Holdem Poker for Advance Players. If you have the 21st Centruy addition look at page 161.

[/ QUOTE ]

S&M were not thinking about any Foxwoods game when they wrote HEPFAP. I'm pretty sure the games they describe don't exist anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I"m sorry you read my reply before I deleted it. I deleted it because I saw that others were already directing you to the same page numbers in the same book that I was.

Advice once reserved for lower stakes holdem games now seems to apply to 20/40 and even many 40/80 games. The games have gotten that loose. As soon as I read the first post in the thread I almost felt like it was a set up example from a book.

I'll respond to one of your other responses at the same time here. You mention that the person with 5 outs will call anyway. It is not just whether they will call, but whether it will be profitable for them to call and how profitable it will be. Also look at those with 4 outs, or 3.5 outs. AQ has a particular interest in getting those hands to fold on the flop that hold a King and some sort of backdoor draw. You want that guy to either fold or make an negative ev call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I should not have deleted the post. I now see that the references I came across later in the thread were quoted from my original post. The thread was moving fast. I got to the bottom and read people talking about pp159-161 in Sklansky so I deleted to not be redundant.

About AK: not as strong a case for limping here as it is much stronger and the pair never has to worry about someone having a better kicker or drawing to a better one pair. With AK, you sacrifice more by not raising preflop than you create by causing opponents to make incorrect calls on the flop.

[Grease]

AJo? I limp AJo in the SB at the table you described.

However, I always raise AQo, and think you should have done so as well.

[blindside]

i raise preflop like almost all the time... i may not do it if i'm running bad and i'm not too confident in my play...

i don't get why folks are afraid to bloat a pot with a premium hand... do we not like scooping big pots?

[emerson]

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AJo? I limp AJo in the SB at the table you described.

However, I always raise AQo, and think you should have done so as well.

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AJ is a very frequent limp for other reasons. People with AK and AQ will call anyway and you only force out the weaker aces, like AT and A9 that you'd like to keep around.

This is a different case altogether. AJ is an important limp here to protect your hand if a jack should flop. You want to drive out the weak draws, especially those that include a King or Queen. But in these games, callers are MUCH more likely to be holding Kings than Queens. Calling preflop with AQ when there are several limpers makes it easier for you to eliminate those holding a king on the flop. It protects your hand if you flop a Q.

If an ace flops you probably have the lead with AQ since there was no raise preflop. The pot is of the size already that maximizing your chance of winning it is a higher priority than getting extra bets. You'd be happier if everyone folded to your flop bet, which is more likely with no preflop raise.

If you miss the flop you will probably fold anyway against this big field and will then be glad you didn't raise preflop. So limping seems to be better whether you hit the flop or miss. Raising probably only comes out better in those cases where you fop two pair or better.

[rafiki]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.323% 38.23% 00.52% 7104064142 96102544.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 14.363% 14.11% 00.41% 2622246926 76248304.00 { random }
Hand 2: 25.184% 24.85% 00.61% 4618075432 113524163.50 { random }
Hand 3: 22.130% 21.05% 01.32% 3912040662 245636226.00 { random }

So 38%ish percent against 3 randoms

and

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.933% 31.18% 01.76% 338573 19083.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 25.757% 24.73% 01.03% 268533 11193.00 { 7d6d }
Hand 2: 28.788% 28.71% 00.08% 311746 898.50 { 3c3d }
Hand 3: 12.521% 09.82% 02.71% 106604 29377.50 { As6h }


33ish% against an opponent range like that. Given that it's going to be pretty easy to evaluate how far you go when the flop comes, seems like a pretty clear raise preflop to me, especially if you're the best player at the table...

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.323% 38.23% 00.52% 7104064142 96102544.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 14.363% 14.11% 00.41% 2622246926 76248304.00 { random }
Hand 2: 25.184% 24.85% 00.61% 4618075432 113524163.50 { random }
Hand 3: 22.130% 21.05% 01.32% 3912040662 245636226.00 { random }

So 38%ish percent against 3 randoms

and

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.933% 31.18% 01.76% 338573 19083.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 25.757% 24.73% 01.03% 268533 11193.00 { 7d6d }
Hand 2: 28.788% 28.71% 00.08% 311746 898.50 { 3c3d }
Hand 3: 12.521% 09.82% 02.71% 106604 29377.50 { As6h }


33ish% against an opponent range like that. Given that it's going to be pretty easy to evaluate how far you go when the flop comes, seems like a pretty clear raise preflop to me, especially if you're the best player at the table...

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Very inaccurate type of analysis if this assumes all hands staying to the end. If all players call until the end, including yourself, of course a raise is best. This is essentially an all in preflop analysis.

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.323% 38.23% 00.52% 7104064142 96102544.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 14.363% 14.11% 00.41% 2622246926 76248304.00 { random }
Hand 2: 25.184% 24.85% 00.61% 4618075432 113524163.50 { random }
Hand 3: 22.130% 21.05% 01.32% 3912040662 245636226.00 { random }

So 38%ish percent against 3 randoms

and

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.933% 31.18% 01.76% 338573 19083.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 25.757% 24.73% 01.03% 268533 11193.00 { 7d6d }
Hand 2: 28.788% 28.71% 00.08% 311746 898.50 { 3c3d }
Hand 3: 12.521% 09.82% 02.71% 106604 29377.50 { As6h }


33ish% against an opponent range like that. Given that it's going to be pretty easy to evaluate how far you go when the flop comes, seems like a pretty clear raise preflop to me, especially if you're the best player at the table...

[/ QUOTE ]

Very inaccurate type of analysis if this assumes all hands staying to the end. If all players call until the end, including yourself, of course a raise is best. This is essentially an all in preflop analysis.

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that's a good point. I can't really figure out the strength of AQ without taking account that we'll go to the river.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll respond to one of your other responses at the same time here. You mention that the person with 5 outs will call anyway. It is not just whether they will call, but whether it will be profitable for them to call and how profitable it will be. Also look at those with 4 outs, or 3.5 outs. AQ has a particular interest in getting those hands to fold on the flop that hold a King and some sort of backdoor draw. You want that guy to either fold or make an negative ev call.

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WTF. The problem with big pots isn't that it makes these players play correctly; the problem is that it ties us to the pot.

If people call too much that's fine. Of course you prefer 5 outers fold that flop but if they won't regardless of whether the pot is 5 BBs or 2000 BBs I'll happily take my equity out of a bigger pot.

[cdlarmore]

I love it all day, and i think we are ahead here. I cant put them on the flush at this point, and i am sure one of them has weak queen, one may even have A9 or so. If I get raised, I consider a peel and fold ui, especially if the 4th heart drops. I dont think we can fold to a raise on the turn though.