AKs, all streets.

[raistlinx]

I hate to bring this thread up again but the fold/call seemed to be a hot topic so...

I've been rereading TOP again and came across a section that I think fits this situation perfectly (the book is talking about QQ but AKs is pretty much the same value).

For anyone interested in checking it out it is Chapter 24 under the section "Analyzing the cost of a mistake".

[Landlord79]

^^^^Bump

[RocketPiquette]

What was sb hand actually?

just curious.

[threads13]

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% of the pot (until it reaches $60) which cuts into an already marginal EV call.

If you don't understand the significance of the rake at these levels you might wand to sit down with Pokerstove and look over some marginal plays that become -EV because of it at these micro levels

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I'm sorry I don't understand your logic here.

You are telling me that your are folding here because at the end of this hand if you win, you will be paying a max of $3 in rake instead of the $1.50 or so that you would have paid in a moderate size pot of around $30 if you were not 3 bet?

Please tell me you are joking?

The extra $1.50 you are paying in what is going to end up being at least a $50 pot should have absolutely no factor in your deciding to call or fold preflop.

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Ok, this is what I am saying:

56,506,032 games 0.060 secs 941,767,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.722% 40.65% 13.07% 22971117 7385167.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 46.278% 33.21% 13.07% 18764580 7385167.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

This is your equity against someone who will 3bet with AQ+ and QQ+ with EQUAL frequency. Of course we know you will see AQ much less here so your equity is closer to something like this:

41,095,296 games 0.005 secs 8,219,059,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.576% 28.44% 17.14% 11686743 7042716.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 54.424% 37.29% 17.14% 15323121 7042716.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

Here I just took AQos out. As you can see we are already behind pre-flop (no surprise). Now before I talk about the rake you have to realize that these numbers imply you and your opponent play the hand perfectly after the flop by maximizing when you are ahead and minimizing loss when behind (pokerstove is really meant for ai situations where no one makes mistakes since there is no more betting) but since neither of you will play perfectly you know what will happen... you will lose more when he has AA/KK and you hit than you will gain when he has QQ/AQ and you hit UNLESS YOU HAVE A READ (see below). You may win a bit with a flush/flush draw but hitting the flush has reverse implied odds anyway.

So we see that calling the 3bet is marginal at best... but now consider the extra effect of the rake. When the rake takes away 5% of your profit your EV decreses even further making it even more of a marginal play.

And in case you are wondering about the difference between AKS and AKos:
41,095,296 games 0.050 secs 821,905,920 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.737% 24.36% 18.37% 10012619 7550164.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 57.263% 38.89% 18.37% 15982348 7550164.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

But there is one more interesting point. If you are playing live and can read your opponent very well you can call and slow play when he pushes too hard when he has QQ/JJ and you hit, plus you can save money when he has AA/KK and you are behind. But on the internet you just can't pick up these tells. Gotta fold it to a three bet without a read.

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While I understand everything you are saying there is one spot that gets me. We are getting ~2.5:1 on a call.

You haven't talked about this at all. I don't know the stats right now on flopping TP against his range, but if the pot odds are good enough, shouldn't we be calling?

[raistlinx]

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While I understand everything you are saying there is one spot that gets me. We are getting ~2.5:1 on a call.

You haven't talked about this at all. I don't know the stats right now on flopping TP against his range, but if the pot odds are good enough, shouldn't we be calling?

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No, even though it looks like we are getting a good price to call, the amount we lose when we hit TPTK or top two pair and are against AA/KK will cost us more than we make up when he doesn't and we hit. (note that in Limit it would be correct to call)

Consider:
1) When we don't hit we don't lose anymore money
2) When we hit and opponent has QQ or worse we don't win much money
3) When we hit and are against AA or KK it costs us ALOT before we get away from the hand... if we even can.

The only time we get much money is when we are up against AQ or KQ but not too many people 3bet this preflop so 90% of the time one of the above scenarios will happen and over all we will lose money calling the 3bet. So basically the concept here is the very bad reverse implied odds when we hit our hand.

[afadeyi]

you're golden here 95% of the time.

[raistlinx]

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you're golden here 95% of the time.

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Uh, what?