Wynn 10k - Hand #2

[johnnyrocket]

yea this is a spot where i push hard since they put u on tilting factor alot, i think he'd bet a queen here on the river. Its a tough spot, we dont like bet/folding at all? there can def be a case for this to make your decision much more clear.

Say we bet the 3000, if he calls we are good, if he raises we know what he has and lose, i like this play better

[Cornell Fiji]

ZJ,
'A really tight player' is usually not calling that turn bet with QJs because the BB is still to act behind him.

The odds that the button has JTs should be discounted because tight players usually dump JTs preflop against someone who might be steaming and is likely to fire multiple barrels. Obviously it should not be discounted entirely but it should be discounted heavily.

IMO the only hands that are calling the flop bet are AQ/KQ/QJ/AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/JT/AK

The hands that are calling the turn bet are:
AQ/KQ/AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/JJ/TT

The villain is not firing on the river with JJ/TT so the hands that he bets on the river are:
AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/AQ/KQ

As Gobbo said earlier in the thread, if he is capable of betting KQ then its a call, if not its a fold, I believe that it is that simple

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]

The villain is not firing on the river with JJ/TT so the hands that he bets on the river are:
AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/AQ/KQ

As Gobbo said earlier in the thread, if he is capable of betting KQ then its a call, if not its a fold, I believe that it is that simple

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I beat one out of seven hands in his range, I should call? Also note that out of that range he's the least likely to bet that hand.

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The villain is not firing on the river with JJ/TT so the hands that he bets on the river are:
AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/AQ/KQ

As Gobbo said earlier in the thread, if he is capable of betting KQ then its a call, if not its a fold, I believe that it is that simple

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I beat one out of seven hands in his range, I should call? Also note that out of that range he's the least likely to bet that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm not really sure what you guys are saying here.

Gobbo posted that if he bets KQ you ahve to call. Well if KQ is the WORST HAND HE BETS, how can you possibly call? I think it's an awful call if that's the case (worst hand he bets). It's the only hand in his range that ZJ is beating, and he's betting a lot of hands here since he's last to act on the river, then you certainly don't want to be calling this bet.

How can you possibly say if KQ is the worst hand he's betting, this is a call? Awful advice IMO. I think you can only call if you think he's capable of betting QJ, JJ, TT. If he can bet one of those, THEN you call. If he isn't betting anything but KQ+, you have to fold.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The villain is not firing on the river with JJ/TT so the hands that he bets on the river are:
AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/AQ/KQ

As Gobbo said earlier in the thread, if he is capable of betting KQ then its a call, if not its a fold, I believe that it is that simple

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I beat one out of seven hands in his range, I should call? Also note that out of that range he's the least likely to bet that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that AA/KK need to be discounted because he is likely to reraise them preflop (although he may slowplay them more often than normal because you are percieved as being on tilt his default is going to be to reraise these hands preflop). I also think that JTs has to be severly discounted if he is a tight old guy.

He could have the following hands by the river (the combinations that I will give him credit for because of discounting):
AA - 6 (3)
KK - 6 (1.5)
QQ - 1 (1)
AQ - 6 (6)
KQ - 8 (4)
JTs - 4 (.5)
99 - 1 (1)

(what I am saying here is that 25% of the time he has KK he is going to smooth call pf and take the line that he did in this hand and that 50% of the time that he has KQ he will get to the river as he did and then bet the river)

Of the 17 hand combinations by the river we beat 4 and chop with 6 so our equity is 6/17*pot. Since we are calling 3500 into a pot of 10,650 then it is a +cEV call by 259 chips if my assumptions are correct.

[ZeeJustin]

Cornell, I like the style of analysis you did, however, I don't like the numbers you came up with.

Also, A9s, T9s, and 98s should definitely be in there somewhere, maybe even J9s and some other hands.

I also want to clarify, that I never said this guy is a tight old guy. I said David was joking with him about how tight he was, and that he looked like the type of person that could be really tight. I am in no way saying that he is in fact a tight old guy.

[TxRedMan]

this is a fold.

it reeks of j-10.

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The villain is not firing on the river with JJ/TT so the hands that he bets on the river are:
AA/KK/QQ/99/JT/AQ/KQ

As Gobbo said earlier in the thread, if he is capable of betting KQ then its a call, if not its a fold, I believe that it is that simple

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I beat one out of seven hands in his range, I should call? Also note that out of that range he's the least likely to bet that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that AA/KK need to be discounted because he is likely to reraise them preflop (although he may slowplay them more often than normal because you are percieved as being on tilt his default is going to be to reraise these hands preflop). I also think that JTs has to be severly discounted if he is a tight old guy.

He could have the following hands by the river (the combinations that I will give him credit for because of discounting):
AA - 6 (3)
KK - 6 (1.5)
QQ - 1 (1)
AQ - 6 (6)
KQ - 8 (4)
JTs - 4 (.5)
99 - 1 (1)

(what I am saying here is that 25% of the time he has KK he is going to smooth call pf and take the line that he did in this hand and that 50% of the time that he has KQ he will get to the river as he did and then bet the river)

Of the 17 hand combinations by the river we beat 4 and chop with 6 so our equity is 6/17*pot. Since we are calling 3500 into a pot of 10,650 then it is a +cEV call by 259 chips if my assumptions are correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis paradigm is perfect, but I think fair debate about the assumptions can easily change the outcome of the equity calculation. If you tinker with the assumptions by including A9s, T9s and 89s, then the equity almost certainly goes negative.

In all events, this is a close question, so ZJ should probably be about indifferent as between a call and a fold.

[Mr.WeakTight]

[ QUOTE ]
he is an older guy that seems like he would be a really tight player.

[/ QUOTE ]

then later you said he wasn't really a tight old guy. but you were just moved to this table so you're not too sure about your read. and he won't have much of a read on you either.

he calls a raise pre-flop but doesn't re-raise. you have an an A and Q so AA and QQ are not likely, plus with those and with KK you'd expect a re-raise from most tight players. a smaller A is possible, like A9-AQ, A8s-AKs. also possible are any pairs and suited connectors 78+ (the tighter he is, the bigger the pair and the higher the suited connector has to be).

he calls your c bet on the flop so he caught something. he might have caught a draw with JT. He might have a 9. on the turn he calls your more than half the pot bet. these two calls combined suggest strength to me. If he was on a draw, he was not getting the right price to make the turn call. he still might have made the call.

the checks and the bet on the river suggest one of two things - either he has a super strong hand like 9x or a FH or a straight, or he made his draw on the river. all you have is TPTK. you can fold and still have 6k. I don't see how you can call this when you're that deep. I would fold.

[Requin]

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